IIR's May 20 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Iran's President Dies & Warrants Sought for Israel, Hamas Leaders		President Ebrahim Raisi and Iran's foreign minister were killed in a helicopter crash, leaving the country without two of its most influential figures. International Criminal Court Prosecutor Requests Warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas Leaders: While the request must be approved by the court's judges, the announcement is a blow to Mr. Netanyahu and will likely fuel international criticism of Israel's war strategy in Gaza.	New York Times	U.S. Rig Count, Dangote Refinery: Your Daily Energy News
Russia's glide bombs devastating Ukraine's cities		Russia is increasingly using "glide bombs" - cheap but highly destructive ordnance - to advance its offensive in Ukraine. More than 200 of them are thought to have been used in just a week to pound Ukraine's northern town of Vovchansk during Russia's current cross-border advance near Kharkiv. A recent report by the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) said they were decisive in February's capture of the once heavily fortified key eastern town of Avdiivka.	BBC	How the Price Cap Coalition Controlled Russian Oil Export Prices--But Not as Much as Hoped
Global oil markets weaken as sluggish demand leaves overhang		Global physical crude oil markets are weakening because of soft refinery demand and ample supply, traders and analysts told Reuters, in a move that could spell further weakness for benchmark crude futures. The weakness indicates high interest rates and inflation are depressing consumer and industrial demand, especially in Europe, at a time when supply is rising from non-OPEC producers such as the United States. This could bolster arguments for OPEC+ to maintain production curbs at a June 1 meeting. Lower profit margins have already prompted Asian refiners to process less crude oil in May, with others considering more cuts in coming months, further reducing crude demand.	Reuters	Canadian Natural Resources Plots Major Oil Production Growth
U.S. and Saudi Arabia near potentially historic security deal		In a statement released overnight Saturday, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the draft agreement as "nearly final." The first component of the deal includes a series of agreements between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, including defense guarantees and civil nuclear cooperation. The Biden administration would solidify its ties to Saudi Arabia at a time when adversary China is attempting to expand its influence in the Middle East. A second component would normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but that is contingent on a third complicated and aspirational component that would forge a pathway to a Palestinian state.	CBS	Russia's Gazprom Posts First Annual Loss in 24 Years
Natural Gas News: Traders Anticipate Heat-Driven Test of 200-Day Moving Average		Natural gas futures are trending higher on Monday, approaching the critical 200-day moving average. As Texas experiences extreme heat, reaching the 90s to 100s, with cooling midweek and rising temperatures again next weekend. Not to mention the return of Freeport LNG's liquefaction train increases gas flows to export facilities, boosting natural gas futures. Bullish momentum persists as recent inventory data suggests tight supplies ahead of the peak summer season.	FX Empire	In the U.S., Plans to Build New Gas-Fired Power Plants Still Trail Renewables
Anglo American Investors Open to a Takeover if the BHP Deal Is Simplified		Major shareholders in Anglo American are reportedly open to accepting a simpler takeover bid from its bigger rival BHP, which could create a mining juggernaut. The Telegraph reported that two major Anglo investors said BHP's current plan to break up the business was too complicated but suggested they would consider a revised bid that did away with this element. "Taking away that conditionality can improve things," one of Anglo's 15 biggest investors said. The news comes ahead of a deadline on Wednesday for Australia-based BHP, which is the world's largest publicly-listed mining company, to return with a binding offer or walk away under UK takeover rules.	OilPrice	Secondary Aluminum: A Remedy for the Enduring Energy Crisis
Week 05/13/24 - 05/20/24		Tragedy strikes both Iran as their President and Foreign Minister were killed in a helicopter crash as well as Ukrainian cities as Russia utilizes glide bombs to wreak humanitarian devastation. Also, there is talk from Iran of nuclear weaponization (Russia already has rattled the nuclear saber threat in Ukraine) as a means of deterrence amid unfolding hostilities with Israel. This as Saudi and the U.S. work to finalize a security deal which has a component to seek to normalize relations with Israel. Simply, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boil over into a wider conflict. However, Mr. Oil Market is responding sluggishly as continued economic woes are continuing to depress demand with ample supply available.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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