IIR's November 4 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
How U.S. elections could shape Israel's multifront Middle East war		Officials and analysts say the outcome of Tuesday's vote between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could have major implications for Israeli actions in Iran and Gaza. The Biden administration spent weeks persuading Israel not to strike oil or nuclear facilities in Iran, fearing it could propel the region into an even more dangerous phase just before Americans head to the polls. After relatively limited Israeli attacks over the weekend, the Middle East appears to have edged back from the cliff. Whoever wins, Israeli hawks are eyeing President Joe Biden's lame-duck period as a potential opportunity to elicit U.S. support for more far-reaching strikes on Iran, hoping the outgoing administration will be less wary of political blowback at home.	The Washington Post	IIR's 2025 North American Outlook Reveals Market Trends in Chemical Processing, Other Industrial Markets
Near the front line of the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainians are bracing for the U.S. election		"The new president of the United States can either strengthen support for Ukraine or weaken it," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters this week. "Weakening support will allow Russia to occupy more land." Vice President Harris has pledged to continue supporting Ukraine's defense. Former President Donald Trump says he won't approve more aid, but insists he can end the war "in 24 hours" if he's elected, though he hasn't said how.	NPR	IEA Report Assesses How Global Oil Demand Will Fare if EV Ownership Surges as Projected
Oil gains more than 2% after OPEC+ delays output hike, US election in focus		Oil prices rose more than 2% on Monday on a decision by OPEC+ to delay by a month plans to increase output, while the market braced for a crucial week that includes the U.S. presidential election. U.S. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday's Election Day, and the winner might not be known for days after voting ends.	Reuters	IIR: 2024 Refinery Spend Disappointing Across All Sectors, 2025 May Look Up
European stocks reverse gains to trade lower ahead of U.S. election; tech stocks down Dollar drops to two-week low as investors take profit on 'Trump trades' Asia-Pacific markets rise as investors await U.S. elections, China parliament meeting outcome		European markets were lower on Monday, reversing gains earlier in the day, with all eyes on the U.S. presidential election due to take place on Tuesday. The dollar dipped on Monday as investors braced for wide-ranging implications for the global economy this week from the outcome of U.S. elections and a likely interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The euro jumped 0.7% to $1.0906. The dollar fell nearly 1% on the yen to 151.645. The dollar index eased to 103.65, its lowest in two weeks against a basket of currencies. Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday as investors readied for a busy week that includes the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. Investors will also closely watch China's parliament meeting that kicked off on Monday. Chinese authorities are expected to announce more details on fiscal support when the meeting concludes on Friday.	CNBC	ISM: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Dips to Lowest Level in 2024
Natural Gas News: Facing Downside Risks with Weak Demand Forecast		Natural gas futures test $2.585 support level as bearish sentiment dominates amid warm weather forecast. U.S. natural gas prices face downside risk with production at 102.8 Bcf/day, nearing summer peak levels. EIA reports total storage to 3,863 Bcf, above five-year average. LNG export delays at Golden Pass add pressure as domestic supply remains high amid soft demand.	FX Empire	U.S. Oil Production Hits Record in August
China's Taiwan Blockade: Escalating Tensions And Global Economic Risks - OpEd		China's recent military exercises and the potential economic blockade of Taiwan have elicited global concerns, significantly altering the security landscape of East Asia and impacting international trade. Taiwan's pivotal role as a semiconductor producer renders this blockade an issue of international significance, with prospective ramifications for economic stability and security across various regions. The blockade also reveals vulnerabilities within the global economy, particularly in the technology sector. The world's dependence on Taiwan for semiconductors underscores a critical supply chain bottleneck that exacerbates risks across various industries.	Eurasia Review	Japan's Elections Throw Doubt on Energy Policy
Greenwashing Case Against Santos Could Set Global Precedent		In the most recent in a long line of oil and gas companies to be accused of greenwashing, Australia's second-largest independent oil firm is being sued by the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (ACCR) for misguiding consumers on its decarbonisation aims. Monday marked the first day of the 13-day Santos trial in Australia's federal court. The lawsuit, which was launched in 2021, claims that Santos did not have a proper basis for saying it had a clear strategy for reducing emissions by 26 percent, to 30 percent by 2030, and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2040. A new wave of lawsuits, aimed at forcing oil and gas majors to be more transparent about their environmental impact and climate efforts, is taking place in several countries around the globe. Environmental organisations and activists are no longer standing for greenwashing and are asking state and federal courts to impose restrictions on the use of misleading language, as well as force oil and gas companies to produce viable decarbonisation strategies with clear policies and mid-term targets to achieve their climate goals.	OilPrice	IEA: To Defeat Global Warming, Boost Funding of Energy Transition in Global South
Week 10/28/24 - 11/04/24		This week is all about the U.S. Election and its outcome, which should define what lies ahead in global economic, energy, industrial and other markets. Much will be written, opinions will be uttered, finger pointing will happen, and the U.S. will likely worry about escalations at several polling stations. But by the end of the week, we should have an idea of what could unfold for Eastern Europe, Middle East, Asia, and the global economy; not to mention various Nation State relationships. This will all be unfolding as COP29 prepares to get underway in a few weeks - where nearly 200 Nations are hoping there might be a clear path forward around environmental sustainability. Needless to say, for Mr. Oil Market the OPEC+ announcement to delay output is being overshadowed by Uncle Sam and which direction the Eagle might fly...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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