IIR's October 7 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Israel marks Oct. 7 anniversary, strikes Lebanon and Gaza		Hamas hailed its attack and fired rockets at Tel Aviv this morning, while the IDF issued evacuation warnings for much of northern Gaza in what appeared to be a major new offensive. Israel sent new troops to join its ground invasion and stepped up its bombing of southern Lebanon. The Iran-backed militant group hit the northern port city of Haifa in a rare attack. Iran's top military commander is in "good health," his deputy said, as mystery surrounds Esmail Qaani's fate while Tehran braces for Israel's promised retaliatory attack.	NBC News	Infinity Natural Resources, U.S. Power Transmission Funding: Your Daily Energy News
Ukraine strikes a Russian oil hub as Zelenskyy says the war is in 'a very important phase'		Ukraine's military said it struck a major oil terminal Monday in Crimea that provides fuel for Russia's war effort as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the war has entered a key phase. Ukraine's General Staff said that the oil terminal in Feodosia, on the south coast of the Russia-occupied Crimea Peninsula, has been supplying the Russian army with fuel and that the strike was part of an ongoing effort to "undermine the military and economic potential of the Russian Federation." Ukraine's aim is to impair Russia's ability to support its front-line units, especially in the eastern Donetsk region where the main Russian battlefield effort is stretching weary Ukrainian forces.	AP News	Texas Public Utilities Commission OKs Permian Reliability Plan
Oil prices extend gains, lifting Brent crude towards $80 on fears of wider Middle East conflict		Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent nearing $80 to build on last week's steepest weekly jump since early 2023, driven by fears of a wider Middle East conflict and potential disruption to exports from the major oil-producing region. "Brent crude is back to challenge $80, with activity in the options market showing increased demand for hedging the risk of further gains amid worries about a minor or, in the worst case, major supply disruption from the Middle East," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank said in a note. Brent rose more than 8% last week while WTI soared 9.1% on the possibility that Israel could strike Iranian oil infrastructure in response to Iran's Oct. 1 missile attack on Israel.	Reuters	Oil Prices Spike on Middle East Tensions
European markets turn lower after starting the new trading week with positive momentum Japan leads Asia markets higher; Dollar close to 7-week high after strongest week since 2022. Gold holds steady as safe-haven demand counters stronger dollar		European stocks started the new trading week on a positive note, buoyed by gains in Asia overnight and last Friday's rally on Wall Street, before quickly paring gains. Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed overnight, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 rising almost 2% as investors look ahead to a week of central bank decisions from around the region, including from the Bank of Korea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India. U.S. stock futures were calm on Sunday evening as Wall Street looks to keep the momentum from Friday's rally following a stronger-than-expected jobs report on Friday that gave more support to the idea that the Federal Reserve may pull off a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. Gold prices held steady on Thursday as safe-haven demand from escalating tensions in the Middle East offset pressure from a stronger dollar after investors toned down expectations of another big interest-rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve.	CNBC	U.S. East, Gulf Coast Ports Restart Cargo Operations After Dockworkers Suspend Strike
Natural Gas News: Hurricane Milton Threatens to Shake Up Gas Demand -- What's Next?		Tropical Storm Milton may lower gas demand as power outages in Florida could dampen natural gas consumption. Natural gas futures faced strong resistance at $2.937-$3.206, limiting gains after testing the $3.00 level. Despite a smaller EIA storage build of 55 Bcf, inventories remain 190 Bcf above the five-year average, capping price gains. Cooler weather forecasts suggest rising heating demand, but mild conditions across much of the U.S. could keep it limited. The outlook for next week leans bearish due to strong supply and weaker demand expectations.	FX Empire	U.S. Gas-Fired Plants Eye More than 115 Maintenance Outages
Philippines, South Korea agree to deepen maritime cooperation		The Philippines and South Korea committed Monday to deepening maritime cooperation, their presidents said, in the face of China's assertion of its claims over the South China Sea. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and his Philippine counterpart Ferdinand Marcos met in Manila and agreed to closer ties between their coast guards. Yoon said they will strengthen "tackling transnational crime, information sharing and conducting search and rescue missions." "Our two countries will continue to work together in order to establish a rules-based maritime order and for the freedom of navigation and overflight pursuant to the principles of international law in the South China Sea," he added.	Fort Bend Herald	Refining Market Looks Soft for World's Largest Crude Importer, China
Bad Policies Leave U.S. Vulnerable to Middle East Oil Crisis		Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm called the U.S. "unusually vulnerable" to an oil shock. Just a month ago, such a shock looked rather unlikely. The war in the Middle East had been going on for a year now, and oil supply had not been disturbed. It all changed this week after Iran carried out a barrage of precision missile strikes against Israel, Israel said it would retaliate, and Iran said it would respond to that retaliation. In a matter of hours, oil supply from the Middle East stopped being secure. A day later, it became even less secure, after President Biden told media the White House was discussing attacks on Iranian oil facilities with Israel. While not specific-the literal remark Biden made was "We're discussing that. I think that would be a little... anyway"-the very mention of such a discussion sent oil prices higher.	OilPrice	Oxy Gets Federal Support for Two CCS Projects
Week 09/30/24 - 10/07/24		On this anniversary of Hamas' attack on Israel, escalation is extremely likely in the Middle East. Israel is fighting Iranian proxies on two fronts, in Gaza and Lebanon, and further ratcheting up attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon as they launch a ground incursion. Last week, Iran launched a missile barrage against Israel in support of its proxies and to retaliate against Israel striking down Hezbollah's commander. Now the world waits with bated breath on Israel's response. It seems a wider Middle East conflict is inevitable at this point, which is driving Mr. Oil Market's Brent price to $80 and beyond. Now one wonders if world leaders possess the statesmanship to pull Israel, Iran, and its proxies from the brink...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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