IIR's September 9 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Israel Orders More Evacuations in Gaza After Militants Fire Rockets		The Israeli military has ordered another evacuation of some residential areas in northwest Gaza where it says Palestinian militants fired rockets on the nearby Israeli town of Ashkelon. Syrian state news agency SANA reported that Israeli strikes hit several areas in central Syria late Sunday, damaging a highway in Hama province and sparking fires.	US News	Venture Global LNG, Low Asian Refining Margins: Your Daily Energy News
Inside Pokrovsk - the vital Ukrainian town in Russia's sights		Pokrovsk is a key transportation hub. If it falls, then Russian forces will cut off one of the main supply routes in the region. This will likely force Ukraine to retreat from Chasiv Yar and the front line will move closer to Kramatorsk. For Ukraine, this would effectively mean the loss of almost the entire Donetsk region, which the Kremlin has fought to capture since the beginning of their invasion. The Ukrainian military admits that its incursion into Russia's Kursk region failed to force Moscow to divert its troops from eastern Ukraine.	BBC	U.S. Industrial Gas Demand Drives Fourth-Quarter Project Starts
Oil steadies after week of heavy losses as storm approaches US Gulf Coast		Oil futures edged up on Monday as the risk of production disruptions from a potential hurricane approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast helped prices steady after last week's heavy losses. Analysts said Monday's rebound was partly in response to a potential hurricane near the U.S. Gulf Coast, while Libyan supply disruption has also been supporting prices. Libya's NOC late last week declared force majeure on several crude cargoes loading from the Es Sider port, with oil production curtailed by a political standoff over the central bank and oil revenue, four trading sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.	Reuters	Oil Prices in Freefall Amid Global Economic Woes
European markets start the week on a positive note.. Hang Seng leads losses in Asia; China consumer inflation comes in weaker than forecast Dollar recovers as traders scale back bets of big Fed rate cut.. Gold gains as investors anticipate super-sized Fed rate cut		European stocks were higher on Monday, shrugging off last week's negative sentiment. The shift in gear for regional markets comes after a lackluster start to the new trading week in the Asia-Pacific region. Markets there fell overnight, with Japan's Nikkei 225 leading losses in the region, after the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday. Japan's second-quarter GDP came in at 2.9% on an annualized basis, less than the 3.2% expected by economists polled by Reuters and the advance figure of 3.1%. China's inflation rate grew 0.6% year-on-year, lower than the 0.7% expected from economists polled by Reuters. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI rose 0.4%, lower than the 0.5% expected. The dollar recouped some of last week's losses on Monday as investors looked ahead to U.S. inflation data after Friday's mixed payrolls report sparked uncertainty about the size of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.	CNBC	ISM: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Contracts for Fifth Straight Month
Natural Gas News: Futures Fall Today as Hurricane Francine Threatens Demand		U.S. natural gas futures are trending lower on Monday, driven by concerns that a potential hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico may reduce demand by disrupting power supplies. Forecasts for the week of September 9-15 predict moderate national demand. The short-term outlook for natural gas futures remains cautiously bearish. The key pivot level at $2.252 continues to limit any significant upward movement.	FX Empire	Texas' Matterhorn Express Pipeline Now Moving Some Gas
A Series of Strategic Maneuvers in the South China Sea: Unfolding Tensions and Alliances		The upcoming election of the USA opens up a series of debates between the two parties, the Democrats and the Republicans. For the Democrats, the series of escalations in the South China Sea is a threat to the sovereignty of countries in the region and the extended maritime space of the Indo-Pacific. However, if the Republicans come to power, given their preferred inclination toward an 'America First' policy, they are likely to reduce support to other nations in the region, such as Vietnam. An expected reaction from Beijing will surely come, with the South China Sea likely to see increased activity from the nation-states within and beyond the zone. This region might see multiple wars as powers seek to establish dominance, reminiscent of the militarization observed in West Asia	The GeoPolitics	Rising U.S. Thermal Coal Shipments to Africa, Asia Help Lift Overall Coal Exports
Can Saudi Arabia Actually Afford Vision 2030?		"At least until 2030, Saudi will have massive budgetary needs due to the need to demonstrate some significant outcome in key Vision 2030 projects and to prepare for and host big sporting and cultural events," Middle East Institute scholar Li-Chen Sim told CNBC. "All this amidst expected growth in oil supply from the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, Canada, and even the UAE and possible anemic oil consumption growth in China, the Kingdom's largest oil customer, means that the Kingdom's fiscal breakeven price is likely to rise perhaps to around $100," the analyst added. In other words, the suggestion that Saudi Arabia is in trouble because it cannot make the ends of its planned budget meet is accurate-up to a point. The megaprojects can be delayed, as they have been before when the price environment was sub-optimal. Money can also be drawn from international debt markets where Saudi bonds appear to enjoy substantial popularity, not unlike Aramco shares. Oil-dependent economies, it seems, still draw investors in, transition and non-OPEC output growth notwithstanding.	OilPrice	Energy Forecasting is Alchemy, Leaving Many Analysts Questioning Data
Week 09/03/24 - 09/09/24		Storms in the U.S. Gulf as well as Global Financial Markets as the world awaits further clarity as to what will unfold. Much hinges on what the U.S. Fed will do when they meet next week - with the U.S. jobs report being weaker than expected and eyes now turning to inflation data coming out this week. Asian markets continue to struggle. And, Mr. Oil Market is getting pummeled because these economic market woes acerbate demand uncertainty - with Brent now poised to follow WTI below $70. Is there a possibility things will turn around? Well, one's Magic 8 Ball says, "Outlook hazy."
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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