Japan's Elections Throw Doubt on Energy Policy

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Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--For the third time this year, a nation's prime minister has called for early elections hoping to head off trouble for his party. Also for the third time, the move failed to bring the desired results, as Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, its coalition partner, were crushed in the October 27 election.

What and Why
Current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had been in office only about a week when he called snap elections for Japan's parliament, called the Diet, on October 1. It was the fastest dissolution by a Japanese leader since World War II.

Ishiba called elections so quickly in hopes of capitalizing on having replaced his unpopular predecessor, Fumio Kishida, who was embroiled in a funding scandal. Pre-election polls predicted Ishiba's decision was wise, with that coalition holding a strong majority--among decided voters. The downfall appears to have come from the sizeable undecided voting bloc.

In the election, with a combined 215 seats, the coalition fell 18 short of the 233 needed to form a government. That means they will have to either find one or more additional parties to give the coalition the required seats or continue in the minority. Another challenge is the fact that Komeito's leader, Keiichi Ishii, was defeated in this election.

Who Favors Current Nuclear-Positive Policies
Because various other parties hold diverging views on energy policy, especially involving any return to nuclear power, any new coalition could change the LDP/Komeito alliance's existing plans. The current coalition considers nuclear power as key to both energy security and climate goals. But since the Fukushima Daichi disaster stemming from the earthquake and tsunami in 2011, the country has been slow to return to nuclear energy.

While the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) is the second largest opposition group with 38 seats--enough, if they joined, to restore the current coalition to power--and holds similar views on nuclear energy, JIP has voiced reluctance to join any LDP coalition due to the latter's political fund scandal that led to the party's election losses.

Next in line is the Democratic Party for the People, or Kokumin. Its situation is similar to JIP's in that they share positive views of nuclear energy but are opposed to joining with the current ruling coalition. This election quadrupled their seats to 28, also enough to put the coalition over the top if they joined it.

Who's Against
Japan's biggest opposition party, which won 148 seats, strongly opposes current energy policy. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is now emboldened to boost its efforts to form its own coalition to change policy. Its leader, Yoshihiko Noda, was prime minister from September 2011 to December 2012, as leader of the current party's predecessor, the Democratic Party of Japan.

Its plan would be to phase out all nuclear power as quickly as possible.

Comparing Climate Goals
Both parties look to getting Japan to carbon neutrality by 2050, but CDPJ proposes getting there faster and with only renewable energy. Its plan would be to reduce 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55% compared to 2013 levels. It would put renewables' share of the energy mix at 50% by 2030 and 100% by 2050.

Goals by the current coalition, updated in 2021, are a bit less ambitious and, as stated, do include nuclear energy expansion.

They aim for a 46% decrease in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2013-14 levels. In the 2030 situation, Japan would get 41% of electricity from thermal generation, 36-38% from renewables, 20-22% from nuclear and about 1% from hydrogen/ammonia.

What Energized the Voters
A Kyodo News survey taken shortly before the election showed that the main energy concern for Japan's voters revolved around its affordability, not its source, although many are still concerned about nuclear energy.

Topping the poll--which allowed respondents to check more than one box--were the 60.8% who cited inflation relief and associated economic issues. Next were the 36.7% listing pensions and other social security issues. Only 6.7% said nuclear power and other energy source issues as a concern, Kyodo News reported.

And the Winner Is...TBD
By November 26 there will be a special diet session for the purpose of selecting a prime minister. The future of Japan's energy and economic policies may be on hold until then.

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