Rains Dampen Canadian Wildfire Risk

---

Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Recent rains have lowered the threat from wildfires in oil-rich Alberta, with provincial officials lifting many of the emergency alerts. IIR has seen little impact on the energy sector.

Wildfires raging in British Columbia and in neighboring Alberta triggered air quality alerts in two U.S. states last week, prompting concerns about seasonal activity at the start of the regional fire season.

Nearly a quarter million people were ordered to evacuate their homes last year due to fires raging across Alberta. Last year was the worst wildfire season in the nation's history, with smoke choking out areas as far away as New York City.

This year could be even worse as higher-than-normal temperatures are expected across the nation, and a blaze about three miles south of Fort McMurray in northeast Alberta is still considered out of control. Rains, however, managed to lower the risk during the weekend, prompting regional authorities to lift evacuation orders.

Around 3,000 people are still registered at provincial evacuation centers. Fires this year have torched around 100 square miles, though nearly all of the blazes so far have been extinguished by now.

Recent rains have reduced the danger. There was a slight chance for more showers in Fort McMurray through the day on Monday.

"We thank everyone that was evacuated this week for their patience, resolve and strength, and we look forward to seeing all of you," Sandy Brown, the mayor of regional municipality of Wood Buffalo, said Sunday. "While there is more work to be done, I want to express my deepest appreciation to all those that played such a critical role in protecting our community, keeping people safe and supporting evacuees, while being there for each other."

In the past, regional wildfires have curtailed around 1 million barrels per day (BBL/d) in production, and the market could experience similar tightness this year should weather forecasts prove accurate.

Data from Industrial Info showed last week that as much as 180,000 BBL/d in refining capacity could be sidelined in Alberta, though that's no longer the case. IIR's Disaster Impact Tracker shows potential impacts only in British Columbia from wildfires.

Canada ranks fourth in the world in terms of proved oil reserves with 168 billion barrels of mostly oil sands. Most of that is found in Alberta. Only Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela boast larger volumes of proved reserves.

The nation is also the top crude oil exporter to the United States by far, and recent data suggest there's been no impact on deliveries. Canada sent around 3.8 million BBL/d on average to the U.S. economy during the seven-day period ending May 10. That's about a quarter million BBL/d more than the prior week.

Alberta averaged 3.73 million BBL/d in production on average last year, setting a provincial record.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).