The Return of the Atlantic Tropical Season -- Possible Development Over the Next Month

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Over the past few weeks, there's been the question, "Dude, where's my hurricane season?" Several factors were attributed including an Atlantic Niña, the seasonal tropical belt across equatorial Africa shifted north, and unfavorable wind patterns aloft.

The Atlantic Niña is positioned along the Equator, away from the tropical development region. While these cool temperatures do not directly impact tropical development, they continue to cool the waters off the west African coast. Typically, this pattern is a positive for active tropics; however, as with many other things, 2024 continues to defy expectations.

By late August, there is typically a pretty continuous stream of tropical waves moving across the eastern Atlantic. However, this summer's pattern shifted the rains north into the Sahara and Sahel regions, reducing the number of waves moving west over the Atlantic.

This past week may be tipping point in the Atlantic tropical season as a positive Madden-Julian Oscillation phase is moving and forecast to intensify over the next week. This pattern will lead to enhanced precipitation, divergent upper-level winds, and weaker vertical wind shear, all of which are favorable factors for tropical development.

A current look at the Atlantic basin shows there are three tropical disturbances being monitored by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). The system in the central Atlantic is about 775 miles west of the Windward Islands, moving west at 15 miles per hour. There is a 40% chance of tropical development over the next five days, when it is forecast to be moving across the Caribbean Sea.

Further east, there is another tropical wave that is expected to move south of the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend. Closer to home, a low-pressure center is developing off of the upper Texas Gulf Coast. This system has a 20% chance of tropical development per the NHC, though this could increase, if the low stays offshore. By next week, a fourth tropical wave is forecast to move over the eastern Atlantic.

Click on the image at right for the National Hurricane Center's Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook.

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