U.S. LNG Exports Could Double, EIA Says

---

Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

---

Summary

The export capacity for LNG from U.S. terminals could double the levels from December by 2031, the government said. This year already saw the start of the ninth LNG facility.

---

18 Bcf/d Will Seem Small by 2031

The export capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to be almost twice as high as December levels by the start of the next decade, the U.S. federal government said.

During the December 11-17 period, the last full week in December for which the government has data, some 18 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas in the liquid form departed U.S. terminals.

"By 2031 we expect export capacity to nearly double compared with December 2025," analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, wrote Tuesday.

U.S. levels of LNG production have been setting records close to 19 Bcf/d lately this year. On Wednesday, IIR Energy in its NATGAS Today report put export levels at 18.8 billion cubic feet, supported in large part by an extra lift from the Sabine Pass terminal, operated by Cheniere Energy. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Production Plant Database can click here for the plant profile.

With a net capacity to handle some 4.5 Bcf/d in gas for cooling to the liquid form, the facility is the largest of its kind in North America. The next closest facility, the Plaquemines facility from Venture Global, can handle 3.85 Bcf/d.

Venture Global in November filed an application with the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to increase the export capacity of LNG to levels that would surpass Sabine Pass.

The Sabine Pass terminal began operations as an import terminal in 2008. It exported its first cargo of LNG eight years later. From 2017 to 2021, the EIA reported that most of the LNG exports from the United States went to Asia.

Since the onset of the war in Ukraine in 2022, however, those deliveries have shifted to Europe, which was looking to secure sources from suppliers other than Russia. Since his return to the White House last year, meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has put LNG at the center of a strategy for global energy dominance.

The United States is already the world leader in LNG exports. Last week, the subscriber-based Breaking Energy News (BEN) reported that Golden Pass LNG entered the commissioning phase, making it the ninth LNG export terminal in the United States.

Uncertainty Over LNG Trajectory

Questions are emerging, however, given the expected market glut and international trade concerns.

Amid Trump's recent annexation ambitions over NATO ally Greenland, a Danish territory, some European leaders have questioned trade arrangements, with a political party in Germany pondering an LNG boycott. Meanwhile, there are concerns that Europe simply switched from an over-reliance on Russia to an over-reliance on the United States.

Also, there's competition in North America from Canada, which started building up its LNG portfolio on the west coast of British Columbia with the debut deliveries last year from the LNG Canada facility.

On Monday, operators reported the facility shipped out its 50th cargo, doubling deliveries since November. Federal Canadian data show all of the LNG shipments from its west coast went to Asian economies, with two shipments going to Japan in December.

For U.S. ambitions, the proposed LNG Canada Alaska LNG facility would be the only U.S.-owned plant that could deliver to Asia from the western shores of North America. Operaters are reliant on Korean-sourced steel, however, for a lengthy pipeline that would feed the facility, and the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs could complicate that arrangement given the recently-brokered trade arrangement with Seoul.

By the Numbers

• 36 Bcf/d possible by the start of the next decade
• 50th cargo from LNG Canada launched this month
• 2022 saw U.S. LNG exports shift from Asia to Europe

Key Takeaways

• No let-up in sight for LNG, U.S. government says.
• Canada catching up with shipments to Asia.
• Trade deals could complicate U.S. LNG export arrangements.

---

About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).