Australia's Power Outlook for 2012

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources Australia (Perth, Australia)--Australia's electricity generators produced more than 300 terawatt-hours of electricity for the year ending September 2011. The contribution of renewable energy rose to 9.6% of the total electricity produced in this period, up from 8.7% from the previous year.

Australia's Federal Government announced a Clean Energy Future plan on 10 July 2011, which commits the country to a continued increase in renewable energy generation. A shift in generation sources from coal to less carbon-intensive fuels and renewable resources is expected to continue in Australia in 2012.

As part of our International Power Industry Database, Industrial Info is currently tracking more than 28,000 megawatts (MW) of committed power projects in Australia that are scheduled to kick off from 2012 onward, totalling more than $50 billion in total investment value. Of these projects, about 15,000 MW with a total investment value of about $35 billion are renewable, while non-renewable projects represent about 13,000 MW ($17 billion).

Wind generation projects represent the highest amount of investment, with more than 12,000 MW of planned wind projects accounting for about $25 billion in investment. The majority of windfarm developments are in Victoria and New South Wales for 47 new windfarm proposals. The 420-MW Macarthur Windfarm and the 67-MW Oaklands Hill Windfarm, both in Victoria, have commenced construction, and work continues to connect these windfarms to the grid throughout 2012. AGL Energy Limited's (ASX:AGK) (St. Leonards, New South Wales) Bluff Windfarm (53 MW) is scheduled for completion in 2012, and Hydro Tasmania award a turbine supply contract to Vestas Wind Systems (Randers, Denmark) for the 168-MW Musselroe Windfarm, which is scheduled to begin construction in June 2012.

Natural gas-fired generation represents the second-highest sector for investment, with proposals totalling more than $10 billion. There are six committed grassroot natural gas-fired power stations scheduled for kick off in 2012-13. Origin Energy's (ASX:ORG) (Sydney) 556-MW Mortlake Stage 1 project has already commenced commissioning, and completion is expected first-quarter 2012. Mortlake Stage 2 will bring an additional 550 MW and is scheduled for kick off in the second quarter of next year.

Major solar generation proposals include the 250-MW Solar Dawn project in Queensland and the 150-MW Moree project in New South Wales. Geothermal generation is set to rise with a significant 500-MW station proposed at Innamincka in South Australia. Kogan Creek solar thermal project (44 MW) is being developed by CS Energy and is scheduled for commissioning in July 2012.

Tasmania is on track to develop one of the largest biomass-fired cogeneration power stations in Australia. If funding is secured for the Bell Bay Pulp Mill Project, construction is scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2012.

Industrial Info is tracking more than 1,500 MW of coal-fired generation projects. About 300 MW of coal-fired generation has been put on-hold due to market conditions.

The Australian federal government called for expressions of interest to retire up to 2,000 MW of coal-fired generation by 2020 through a contract for closure program. The federal government has confirmed Hazelwood Power Station and Yallourn Power Station in Victoria's Latrobe Valley are invited to proceed to the negotiation stage in 2012; however, the preferred closure timeframe is from 2016 to 2020. Alinta Energy (Sydney) has announced that it will consider repowering its 200-MW Playford B coal-fired unit with either gas or solar power.

Australia's Power Industry can expect continued growth as it prepares for 2012; however, the long-term effects of the implementation of Australia's Clean Energy Future Plan remain largely unknown.

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Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, and eight offices outside of North America, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.