Power Shortage in Some Areas of China Might be Unavoidable this Summer

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--According to Yu Yanshan, Vice Director of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC), power shortages might be unavoidable this summer despite an overall balance between supply and demand. In eastern and central China, and parts of southern China, power shortages are expected during peak hours this summer. Southern China could have a shortage of up to 8 million kilowatts (kW): 5.5 million kW in Guangdong, 1 million kW in Guizhou and 1.5 million kW in Yunnan.

A recent SERC report shows that power demand in China has been growing quickly this year. As of May 29, 2008, the nation's accumulated power output reached 1.38 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh), an increase of 15.77% year over year; daily power output reached 9.81 billion kWh, and the maximum load under united dispatching reached 400 million kW. It is expected that the growth rate of power consumption will be about 12% this year.

The recent magnitude 8 earthquake in Sichuan province is likely to impact the Sichuan-Chongqing grid, as well as the entire central grid, Yu Yanshan said. Because Sichuan is rich in hydropower, the province normally exports about 1 million-1.5 million kW of power to other provinces during flood season; however, damaged dams and hidden risks associated with the quake have reduced the generating capacity of Sichuan's hydropower stations. Therefore, the province might need to import 2 million kW from the central Grid, further contributing to power shortages in other provinces, including Hubei, Henan and Jiangxi, that might be worse than usual.

"Generally speaking, coal power supply, rainfall and climate will be the decisive factors for power supply and demand in the coming summer," Yu Yanshan said. "The safeguard of power coal supply will be the key in ensuring a stable power supply for the coming summer."

As of June 1, coal stockpiles in coal-fired power plants with installed capacities of 100 megawatts or higher (total installed capacity of 461.7 million kW, accounting for 83% of China's total thermal power capacity) reached 43.84 million metric tons, which is equivalent to the consumption of about 11 days. Stockpiles in Hebei, Anhui, Hunan and eastern Inner Mongolia are expected to last less than seven days. Thirty-four units with a capacity of 6.52 million kilowatts were forced to shut down because of a coal, the SERC announced on June 3, 2008.

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