Analysts Ponder Status of Electric Vehicles in 2035

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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--There are plenty of medium- and long-term predictions on the future of the global energy mix that will give planners, power industry executives, governments and the chattering class temporary positions from which to think and conjecture. It is extremely doubtful that the forecasters will ask to be audited when the due dates for their prognostications arrive.

In a recently published report, the Institute for Energy Efficiency (IEE) forecasts that electric vehicles (EVs) will total only about 12% of the world's autos, trucks and vans on the road in 2035. This amounts to 30 million out of 261 million vehicles, in a best-case scenario.

The IEE sets a mid-range scenario at 25 million EVs, or 10% of vehicles on the road. The conservative scenario has only 5 million EVs on the road, representing 2% of the total.

As with most "green-connected" matter, electric battery technology advances are the key variable, separating the IEE's low-adoption and medium-adoption scenarios. The institute calls its mid-range scenario the "advanced battery scenario," to distinguish it from the low-range forecast, which is based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) annual energy outlook for 2012.

The advanced battery scenario "shows the importance of the initial purchase price [which is influenced by battery costs], and having enhanced vehicle utility through range extension and reduced charge time," the report says.

Taking fossil fuel prices into account for the mid-range case--by presuming a rise in oil price from about $145 to more than $200 a barrel by 2035--causes the jump from 25 million to 30 million vehicles.

IEE is a non-profit research arm of the Edison Electric Institute, which may still be around in 2035. If so, would some kind reader send this writer an audit on the forecast, via telekinesis or Ouija board?

For related information, see April 19, 2013, article - IEA: Only Renewables and Electric Vehicles on Track for Clean Energy Goals, while Nuclear Lags Post-Fukushima.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, and eight offices outside of North America, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.