IIR's March 15 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Analysts: War in Ukraine will drive the price of crude oil for the foreseeable future		The war in Ukraine will drive the price of crude oil for the foreseeable future as the market waits for suppliers not named Russia that could be waiting in the wings, analysts said. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, closed trading March 8 at $123.70 per barrel, the highest settle since summer 2008. But prices retreated later in the week, posting a weekly loss and settling March 11 at $109.33 a barrel. Tuesday's price surge was triggered by an announcement from U.S. President Joe Biden that the U.S. would no longer import fossil fuels from Russia as punishment for its military invasion of Ukraine. "That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable at U.S. ports, and the American people will deal another powerful blow to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's war machine," he said. Mounting sanctions pressure should push the economy into severe recession, according to the International Monetary Fund. But the pressure cuts both ways.	Houston Chronicle	Does the U.S. Ban on Russia Fossil Fuels Even Matter?
Oil settles up but posts biggest weekly decline since November		Oil prices settled higher on Friday but posted their steepest weekly decline since November, as traders assessed potential improvements to the supply outlook that has been disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Crude prices have soared since the invasion, which Moscow calls a "special military operation." This week, futures benchmarks hit their highest levels since 2008, then pulled back sharply as some producing countries signalled they may boost supply. On Friday, supply concerns grew when talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal faced the threat of collapse after a last-minute Russian demand forced world powers to pause negotiations. "Iran talks on hold is one factor supporting markets," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that "market participants will now closely track Russian export data to get a sense how much (supply) is disrupted." U.S. President Joe Biden said the G7 industrialized nations will revoke Russia's "most favored nation" trade status, and announced a U.S. ban on Russian seafood, alcohol and diamonds. The United States banned Russian oil this week. Next week, Staunovo said, the focus will shift to oil market reports from the International Energy Administration (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Both have indicated the market should be oversupplied this year.	Reuters	U.S. Industries Mull Consequences of Russian Oil Ban
EU leaders agree to phase out Russian fuels, but hurdles remain		European Union leaders were set to agree on March 10 to cut their reliance on Russian fossil fuels, although they were divided over whether to cap gas prices and to sanction oil imports as Moscow wages war in Ukraine. Russia's invasion prompted Brussels on March 8 to publish plans to reduce its use of gas from Europe's top supplier this year and end it within the decade. As part of a two-day summit in Versailles, France, the leaders were expected to agree to the phasing out of Russian oil, gas and coal, according to a draft statement, which gave no end-date. One EU official, asking not to be named, said some nations were asking for 2030, others 2027, and some now. The leaders will agree to steps such as increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and deploying renewable energy faster to make the transition. Thursday's draft statement said the European Commission should produce a plan this month "to ensure security of supply and affordable energy prices during the next winter season".	Reuters	IIR RGMI Insights: Weekly Wrap Up & the EIA Weekly #'s with Fundamental Analytics
Iran Nuclear Talks Paused		The talks about the U.S. and Iran returning to the 2015 nuclear deal that would allow the Islamic Republic to legitimately export its oil have been paused "due to external factors," a top EU official said on Friday. The suspension of the talks comes at a time when the oil market desperately needs more oil--including the Iranian barrels--after Russia's invasion of Ukraine roiled markets, rendering a large part of Russian oil now unsellable in Europe due to traders and buyers "self-sanctioning." The Russian war in Ukraine has also complicated the final-stage talks about reviving the nuclear deal, considering the high tension between Russia and the U.S. and its European allies, all of which are part of those talks, although the U.S. is not directly talking to Iran. "A pause in #ViennaTalks is needed, due to external factors. A final text is essentially ready and on the table. As coordinator, I will, with my team, continue to be in touch with all #JCPOA participants and the U.S. to overcome the current situation and to close the agreement," Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, tweeted on Friday. A deal on Iran was reportedly "imminent" as of last week, but it is now muddled with the Russian war in Ukraine. As part of the negotiations for reviving the 2015 agreement, Moscow has reportedly made last-minute demands that the sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine do not impede its trade with Iran.	OilPrice	Middle East's Refiners to Invest $833.7 Million in LPG Production Facilities by 2027
Shareholders at four U.S. oil companies to vote on climate proposals		Shareholders at four U.S. oil companies will vote in the coming quarter on proposals for the firms to meet emissions targets set out in Paris in 2015, said climate activist group Follow This. The votes will test shareholder willingness to impose new air pollution restrictions amid high energy prices and new energy security fears following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "We were positively surprised," said Follow This founder Mark van Baal. "This shows that most oil majors accept the winds of change at the SEC." The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last fall raised the hurdle for companies seeking to exclude environment and social proposals from facing shareholders. Follow This is an activist group of 8,000 shareholders who hold stakes in oil companies in Europe and the United States. While Occidental Petroleum has sought to bar the group's proposal, saying the claims have already been "substantially implemented," Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66 each have not blocked the group's petition, said van Baal.	Reuters	Supreme Court Seems Skeptical of EPA's Ability to Regulate Power Plant CO2 Emissions
Weekly Recap: 3/5-3/12		Signs at the Crossroads indicate that the energy world is catching its collective breath with the thought that maybe - though still extremely tight - the global hydrocarbon markets might - just might - be able to weather less Russian supply. This comes with plausible concerns though as supply from OPEC+, Iran and Venezuela might not materialize timely in these tight markets. Countries such as Germany likely will be dealing with crude & product shortages. And China, heading into its maintenance season, is indicating less of their refined products will be on the water. Signs at these Crossroads might be pointing to crude markets not soaring past $150 but serious doubts remain, especially as under investment in O&G exploration is a reality and these tight markets will just become tighter, while world inventories will be struggling to fill. Though expected global demand might not materialize - a respite albeit not a welcome one - as the world economy is poised to step into a recession...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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