Released June 05, 2009 | GALWAY, IRELAND
en
Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The U.K.'s plans to build four new nuclear power stations is on schedule and is unlikely to be derailed by public fears, according to Graham Fagence, business development manager of Hitachi Power Europe. He said the impending energy crunch facing the U.K. in 2016 will keep current plans to get the first of four nuclear plants operational by 2018 on track.
The U.K. is currently leading the renaissance for new nuclear plant building, but it is likely to run into a serious public backlash over safety fears. Responding to a question regarding potential problems from Industrial Info at the recent Power-Gen Europe 2009 show in Cologne, Germany, Mr. Fagence said: "Of course it can be derailed -- planning law changes might not make it through parliament or it's possible that decommissioning and waste management will not be far enough advanced for the public, but we have until 2011 to deal with that. Personally, I don't think it will be derailed because EDF has spent a great deal of money buying British Energy with some very old AGR plants that are struggling to keep going. They do not want to end up with a legacy of old AGR plants. I'm sure they will push very hard to get their new plants.
"There is a target of 10 new reactors, and the utilities must fully finance the plants including the decommissioning and waste disposal costs. They also have to find all the sites -- some have come naturally and are being sold near plants that are being decommissioned. The first plant will be delivered by the end of 2017. So far, they are more or less on track. Preliminary work will start in about the middle of 2011, construction in 2013, fuel-loading in 2017 and commercial operation 2018." For additional information, see April 17, 2009, news article - U.K. Reveals Potential Sites for 11 New Nuclear Power Plants.
The U.K. government's new-found love for nuclear power comes as the country faces an impending energy crisis and the prospect of having to buy electricity from abroad. However, in order for Mr. Fagence's prediction of a smooth nuclear delivery to come true, the planning process has to be accelerated, a suitable new reactor type has yet to be chosen, and there could be a new government in power before the first orders are placed around 2013.
"Two or three years ago, the government was very much on the fence, but they have changed their attitude quite remarkably over the last couple of years," Mr. Fagence said. "They are now fully supportive of new nuclear power plants. We all know that there will be an energy crunch in around 2016, resulting from the retiring of existing nuclear plants, which represent around 18% of the U.K. generation and the retiring of existing coal plants. This is largely due to increased NOx production requirements. In the U.K., we have 15 reactors still in commercial operation. They are advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGRs) in all cases but one, which is a PWR at Sizewell. Most of them have to retire by 2023, and they are all under life-extension programmes just now. At least 10 new reactors are being planned in the U.K.
"There's also the question of security of fuel supply. We know that the U.K. will become a net importer of natural gas as the North Sea reserves of gas will be exhausted in only a few years time. That means that we will be 100% dependent on imported fuels. What Russia did to the Ukraine [with regard to shutting off natural gas supplies] twice in the last couple of years really frightens people."
According to Mr. Fagence, the renaissance for nuclear power is not just happening in the U.K. with nuclear building on the increase all over the world. This is in stark contrast to the virtual halt in many developed countries in the late 1980s and 1990s.
"New nuclear capacity started back in the 1970s and peaked in the mid-1980s," he said. "It survived the Three Mile Island incident in 1979 but really didn't survive the Chernobyl problems back in 1986, and there was a dramatic fall-off in new build programmes. But now, worldwide, there are 439 reactors in commercial operation so it is big business. There are 33 new reactors being built as we speak. There are 94 reactors ordered, or planned, and another 222 reactors proposed around the world."
Despite his optimism on the new U.K. nuclear build programme, Mr. Fagence admits that there are some thorny issues to be ironed out with regard to the public perception of safely and the managing of nuclear waste.
"There are two fundamental public concerns that have to be addressed with this new technology," he said. "The first is safety and the second is radioactive waste management. All of these new Generation 3 plants are designed with passive shutdown systems, of which one of the biggest elements is the storage of water. There is a massive amount of water stored in big concrete bunkers around and above the core. Each of these has a specific role in the event of a problem, which might be operator error, control rod drop or a ruptured pipe, among other things, but the principle is that the plant will shut down in an orderly fashion without operator intervention."
"If you measure it in terms of the probability of core damage in 'x' thousand years, the world average now, which includes Russia, is once in around every 20,000 years. In the U.S., it's 50,000 years. With Generation 3 and 3+ systems we get to levels that are almost invisible. We are talking millions of years.
"The second safety issue is radioactive waste management, which is a problem that has to be solved. The agreed solution, pretty much worldwide, is for deep geological storage. Finding a host site in the U.K. has been a problem so far. The government is actively seeking credible hosts. Sellafield may be one or it could be private land and there's no reason why not as long as there are the right geological formations underneath. It would be quite lucrative to host one of these sites. Long-term storage must be found. It may take 20 or 30 years to build, but it has to be found and identified."
The U.K. nuclear space has been a hotbed of activity in recent months following a cut-throat online auction for new nuclear sites. For additional information, see May 1, 2009, news article - U.K. Nuclear Sites Sell for $577 Million.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy related markets. For more than 26 years, Industrial Info has provided plant and project opportunity databases, market forecasts, high resolution maps, and daily industry news.
The U.K. is currently leading the renaissance for new nuclear plant building, but it is likely to run into a serious public backlash over safety fears. Responding to a question regarding potential problems from Industrial Info at the recent Power-Gen Europe 2009 show in Cologne, Germany, Mr. Fagence said: "Of course it can be derailed -- planning law changes might not make it through parliament or it's possible that decommissioning and waste management will not be far enough advanced for the public, but we have until 2011 to deal with that. Personally, I don't think it will be derailed because EDF has spent a great deal of money buying British Energy with some very old AGR plants that are struggling to keep going. They do not want to end up with a legacy of old AGR plants. I'm sure they will push very hard to get their new plants.
"There is a target of 10 new reactors, and the utilities must fully finance the plants including the decommissioning and waste disposal costs. They also have to find all the sites -- some have come naturally and are being sold near plants that are being decommissioned. The first plant will be delivered by the end of 2017. So far, they are more or less on track. Preliminary work will start in about the middle of 2011, construction in 2013, fuel-loading in 2017 and commercial operation 2018." For additional information, see April 17, 2009, news article - U.K. Reveals Potential Sites for 11 New Nuclear Power Plants.
The U.K. government's new-found love for nuclear power comes as the country faces an impending energy crisis and the prospect of having to buy electricity from abroad. However, in order for Mr. Fagence's prediction of a smooth nuclear delivery to come true, the planning process has to be accelerated, a suitable new reactor type has yet to be chosen, and there could be a new government in power before the first orders are placed around 2013.
"Two or three years ago, the government was very much on the fence, but they have changed their attitude quite remarkably over the last couple of years," Mr. Fagence said. "They are now fully supportive of new nuclear power plants. We all know that there will be an energy crunch in around 2016, resulting from the retiring of existing nuclear plants, which represent around 18% of the U.K. generation and the retiring of existing coal plants. This is largely due to increased NOx production requirements. In the U.K., we have 15 reactors still in commercial operation. They are advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGRs) in all cases but one, which is a PWR at Sizewell. Most of them have to retire by 2023, and they are all under life-extension programmes just now. At least 10 new reactors are being planned in the U.K.
"There's also the question of security of fuel supply. We know that the U.K. will become a net importer of natural gas as the North Sea reserves of gas will be exhausted in only a few years time. That means that we will be 100% dependent on imported fuels. What Russia did to the Ukraine [with regard to shutting off natural gas supplies] twice in the last couple of years really frightens people."
According to Mr. Fagence, the renaissance for nuclear power is not just happening in the U.K. with nuclear building on the increase all over the world. This is in stark contrast to the virtual halt in many developed countries in the late 1980s and 1990s.
"New nuclear capacity started back in the 1970s and peaked in the mid-1980s," he said. "It survived the Three Mile Island incident in 1979 but really didn't survive the Chernobyl problems back in 1986, and there was a dramatic fall-off in new build programmes. But now, worldwide, there are 439 reactors in commercial operation so it is big business. There are 33 new reactors being built as we speak. There are 94 reactors ordered, or planned, and another 222 reactors proposed around the world."
Despite his optimism on the new U.K. nuclear build programme, Mr. Fagence admits that there are some thorny issues to be ironed out with regard to the public perception of safely and the managing of nuclear waste.
"There are two fundamental public concerns that have to be addressed with this new technology," he said. "The first is safety and the second is radioactive waste management. All of these new Generation 3 plants are designed with passive shutdown systems, of which one of the biggest elements is the storage of water. There is a massive amount of water stored in big concrete bunkers around and above the core. Each of these has a specific role in the event of a problem, which might be operator error, control rod drop or a ruptured pipe, among other things, but the principle is that the plant will shut down in an orderly fashion without operator intervention."
"If you measure it in terms of the probability of core damage in 'x' thousand years, the world average now, which includes Russia, is once in around every 20,000 years. In the U.S., it's 50,000 years. With Generation 3 and 3+ systems we get to levels that are almost invisible. We are talking millions of years.
"The second safety issue is radioactive waste management, which is a problem that has to be solved. The agreed solution, pretty much worldwide, is for deep geological storage. Finding a host site in the U.K. has been a problem so far. The government is actively seeking credible hosts. Sellafield may be one or it could be private land and there's no reason why not as long as there are the right geological formations underneath. It would be quite lucrative to host one of these sites. Long-term storage must be found. It may take 20 or 30 years to build, but it has to be found and identified."
The U.K. nuclear space has been a hotbed of activity in recent months following a cut-throat online auction for new nuclear sites. For additional information, see May 1, 2009, news article - U.K. Nuclear Sites Sell for $577 Million.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy related markets. For more than 26 years, Industrial Info has provided plant and project opportunity databases, market forecasts, high resolution maps, and daily industry news.
