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Released May 03, 2021 | SUGAR LAND
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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Following years of often surprising growth, U.S. natural gas-fired energy generation is set to take a breather in 2021. Although gas-fired energy providers will continue to build and install new units, a sudden jump from record low prices is expected to temper the fossil fuel's standing in the energy mix. Of the many combustion turbine units (single-cycle and combined-cycle) installed across the U.S. from 2010 through 2018--a period often called the "dash to gas"--Industrial Info is tracking 78 units that are set for major maintenance projects lasting 14 days or more, from now through the end of 2021.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Generation Database can click here for a complete list of offline events for the remainder of 2021 related to U.S. gas-fired combustion turbine units that began operations from 2010 through 2018.
Click on the image at right for a graph detailing major offline events scheduled for the remainder of 2021, by market region, at gas-fired units that started up in the U.S. from 2010 to 2018.
Starting in the early 1990s, natural gas-fired energy generation began to grow across the U.S., gradually eating away at coal-fired generation's share of the energy mix. The trend accelerated significantly after 2010, by which time natural gas had proven to be an inexpensive resource when compared with coal, and energy providers were investing heavily in the construction and installation of gas-fired power units. Natural gas surpassed coal as the top source of electricity by the middle of the decade, and it still holds the crown.
None of this is to say that natural gas will continue to grow at the pace it has enjoyed over the past decade. In January, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted U.S. natural gas-fired power generation would decline by about 8% in 2021--the first such decline since 2017. The culprit is an expected jump in natural gas prices, which were at their lowest in decades in 2020. They now are expected to rise 41% to an average of $3.35 per million British thermal units (Btu)--about where they were in 2017. Coal-fired generation is expected to make up for much of the loss, although renewable energy sources also are taking a bigger bite out of the energy mix.
Still, natural gas-fired generators are seeing far more capacity additions than they are retirements, whereas coal-fired generators do not have any new unit additions on the horizon. But any slowdown in gas-fired growth will put pressure on energy producers to perform regular, thorough maintenance on their existing units. Not surprisingly, the upcoming maintenance projects scheduled for the remainder of 2021 are weighted toward the eastern half of the U.S., where the Marcellus and Utica shale plays supply natural gas to the Great Lakes, Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions.
Click on the image at right for a pair of graphs detailing past and projected unit retirements in the U.S. and Canada by fuel source, spanning 2011 through 2030, and capacity additions by fuel source, spanning 2011 through 2020.
Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK) (Charlotte, North Carolina) accounts for nine planned turnarounds for the remainder of 2021, more than any other plant owner. Before the end of the second quarter, Duke plans to begin an outage at the combined-cycle, 642-MW Block 4 at its Louis V. Sutton Energy Complex in Wilmington, North Carolina, which includes a pair of heavy-frame combustion turbines from Siemens, each with a 208-MW capacity, and a 226-MW steam turbine from Toshiba. The same block is expected to see another outage in the fourth quarter. If you subscribe to Industrial Info's GMI Power Generation Database, see our detailed reports for the second-quarter and fourth-quarter outages at the Louis V. Sutton plant.
At Duke's combined-cycle, 690-MW Dan River Power Station in Eden, North Carolina, the company is preparing for a fourth-quarter outage that would cover a pair of heavy-frame combustion turbines, each with a 185-MW capacity, and a 321-MW steam turbine, all made by General Electric (NYSE:GE). If you subscribe to Industrial Info's GMI Power Generation Database, see our project report.
Dominion Energy Incorporated (NYSE:D) (Richmond, Virginia) accounts for eight planned unit outages, most of which are located in Virginia. The combined-cycle, 1,396-megawatt (MW) Brunswick Power Plant in Freeman is preparing for a fourth-quarter maintenance outage, which covers a trio of heavy-frame combustion turbines, each with a 272-MW capacity, and a 580-MW steam turbine, all made by Mitsubishi. Dominion's Bear Garden Station in New Canton is preparing for an outage in the same quarter on its sole block, which generates 616 MW from a pair of GE turbines, each with a 178-MW capacity, and a 260-MW steam turbine, all made by GE. If you subscribe to Industrial Info's GMI Power Generation Database, see our detailed reports for the Brunswick and Bear Garden projects.
The startup dates of the four abovementioned power plants span the past decade of consistent growth in the natural gas-fired power sector. Duke's Dan River and Louis V. Sutton plants began operations in 2012 and 2013, respectively, with both replacing coal-fired units that were closed around the same time. Dominion's Bear Garden and Brunswick stations began operations in 2011 and 2016, respectively.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Generation Database can click here for a complete list of offline events for the remainder of 2021 related to U.S. gas-fired combustion turbine units that began operations from 2010 through 2018.
Click on the image at right for a graph detailing major offline events scheduled for the remainder of 2021, by market region, at gas-fired units that started up in the U.S. from 2010 to 2018.Starting in the early 1990s, natural gas-fired energy generation began to grow across the U.S., gradually eating away at coal-fired generation's share of the energy mix. The trend accelerated significantly after 2010, by which time natural gas had proven to be an inexpensive resource when compared with coal, and energy providers were investing heavily in the construction and installation of gas-fired power units. Natural gas surpassed coal as the top source of electricity by the middle of the decade, and it still holds the crown.
None of this is to say that natural gas will continue to grow at the pace it has enjoyed over the past decade. In January, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted U.S. natural gas-fired power generation would decline by about 8% in 2021--the first such decline since 2017. The culprit is an expected jump in natural gas prices, which were at their lowest in decades in 2020. They now are expected to rise 41% to an average of $3.35 per million British thermal units (Btu)--about where they were in 2017. Coal-fired generation is expected to make up for much of the loss, although renewable energy sources also are taking a bigger bite out of the energy mix.
Still, natural gas-fired generators are seeing far more capacity additions than they are retirements, whereas coal-fired generators do not have any new unit additions on the horizon. But any slowdown in gas-fired growth will put pressure on energy producers to perform regular, thorough maintenance on their existing units. Not surprisingly, the upcoming maintenance projects scheduled for the remainder of 2021 are weighted toward the eastern half of the U.S., where the Marcellus and Utica shale plays supply natural gas to the Great Lakes, Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions.
Click on the image at right for a pair of graphs detailing past and projected unit retirements in the U.S. and Canada by fuel source, spanning 2011 through 2030, and capacity additions by fuel source, spanning 2011 through 2020.Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK) (Charlotte, North Carolina) accounts for nine planned turnarounds for the remainder of 2021, more than any other plant owner. Before the end of the second quarter, Duke plans to begin an outage at the combined-cycle, 642-MW Block 4 at its Louis V. Sutton Energy Complex in Wilmington, North Carolina, which includes a pair of heavy-frame combustion turbines from Siemens, each with a 208-MW capacity, and a 226-MW steam turbine from Toshiba. The same block is expected to see another outage in the fourth quarter. If you subscribe to Industrial Info's GMI Power Generation Database, see our detailed reports for the second-quarter and fourth-quarter outages at the Louis V. Sutton plant.
At Duke's combined-cycle, 690-MW Dan River Power Station in Eden, North Carolina, the company is preparing for a fourth-quarter outage that would cover a pair of heavy-frame combustion turbines, each with a 185-MW capacity, and a 321-MW steam turbine, all made by General Electric (NYSE:GE). If you subscribe to Industrial Info's GMI Power Generation Database, see our project report.
Dominion Energy Incorporated (NYSE:D) (Richmond, Virginia) accounts for eight planned unit outages, most of which are located in Virginia. The combined-cycle, 1,396-megawatt (MW) Brunswick Power Plant in Freeman is preparing for a fourth-quarter maintenance outage, which covers a trio of heavy-frame combustion turbines, each with a 272-MW capacity, and a 580-MW steam turbine, all made by Mitsubishi. Dominion's Bear Garden Station in New Canton is preparing for an outage in the same quarter on its sole block, which generates 616 MW from a pair of GE turbines, each with a 178-MW capacity, and a 260-MW steam turbine, all made by GE. If you subscribe to Industrial Info's GMI Power Generation Database, see our detailed reports for the Brunswick and Bear Garden projects.
The startup dates of the four abovementioned power plants span the past decade of consistent growth in the natural gas-fired power sector. Duke's Dan River and Louis V. Sutton plants began operations in 2012 and 2013, respectively, with both replacing coal-fired units that were closed around the same time. Dominion's Bear Garden and Brunswick stations began operations in 2011 and 2016, respectively.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
