Released May 12, 2022 | SUGAR LAND
en
Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--As the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) moves into its second week of what some are calling "August in May," with temperatures ranging in the lower 90s to the triple digits, the grid operator has assured the state it will deploy all available tools to maintain grid reliability. ERCOT says there is currently enough capacity to meet projected demand levels in its service area, which covers all of the state, except for some parts in the far east, far west and Panhandle.
Last week, ERCOT issued an operating condition notice (OCN) related to possible emergency conditions, which was to stay in effect until midweek. It since has been extended into this weekend. The grid operator then issued an advance action notice (AAN) warning of possible reserve capacity deficiencies over the past weekend.
The major factor driving these concerns is the amount of generation currently offline for normal maintenance activities. Roughly 5 to 7 gigawatts (GW) of thermal generation are offline, with some not expected to return until later this month. On average, Industrial Info tracks between 6 and 7 GW of maintenance activities throughout the spring outage season.
ERCOT is working closely with the Texas Public Utilities Commission, electrical generation (EGU) owners, and transmission utilities to see what can be done to prepare for additional extreme heat. ERCOT might ask some generation operators to complete their minor maintenance activities by late next week and others to postpone their planned outages.
ERCOT's projections for supply and demand show a margin of about 10%, with demand expected to peak today and Friday at roughly 68 GW, while available supply could peak at 76 GW, which would be enough to meet the demand over the next couple of days. Those numbers cover quick-start, reserve and renewable-energy assets. Projections on the demand side are a bit lower for the following days.
Renewable resources are looking for a healthy combined average hourly generation rate of 24 GW. Solar seems to have the lion's share of operational renewable assets.
All in all, the grid operators should be able to meet current conditions. If this abnormal heat wave persists, one can only speculate.
Why is all this important? With generation prices averaging $132 per megawatt, all it would take is one or two large assets to go offline unexpectedly, and the price would skyrocket--with the added cost being passed on to the end users. The month of May sounds like it's going to be an interesting one for ERCOT.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the world's leading provider of market intelligence across the upstream, midstream and downstream energy markets and all other major industrial markets. IIR's Global Market Intelligence Platform (GMI) supports our end-users across their core businesses, and helps them connect trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated project opportunities. Follow IIR on: LinkedIn.
Last week, ERCOT issued an operating condition notice (OCN) related to possible emergency conditions, which was to stay in effect until midweek. It since has been extended into this weekend. The grid operator then issued an advance action notice (AAN) warning of possible reserve capacity deficiencies over the past weekend.
The major factor driving these concerns is the amount of generation currently offline for normal maintenance activities. Roughly 5 to 7 gigawatts (GW) of thermal generation are offline, with some not expected to return until later this month. On average, Industrial Info tracks between 6 and 7 GW of maintenance activities throughout the spring outage season.
ERCOT is working closely with the Texas Public Utilities Commission, electrical generation (EGU) owners, and transmission utilities to see what can be done to prepare for additional extreme heat. ERCOT might ask some generation operators to complete their minor maintenance activities by late next week and others to postpone their planned outages.
ERCOT's projections for supply and demand show a margin of about 10%, with demand expected to peak today and Friday at roughly 68 GW, while available supply could peak at 76 GW, which would be enough to meet the demand over the next couple of days. Those numbers cover quick-start, reserve and renewable-energy assets. Projections on the demand side are a bit lower for the following days.
Renewable resources are looking for a healthy combined average hourly generation rate of 24 GW. Solar seems to have the lion's share of operational renewable assets.
All in all, the grid operators should be able to meet current conditions. If this abnormal heat wave persists, one can only speculate.
Why is all this important? With generation prices averaging $132 per megawatt, all it would take is one or two large assets to go offline unexpectedly, and the price would skyrocket--with the added cost being passed on to the end users. The month of May sounds like it's going to be an interesting one for ERCOT.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the world's leading provider of market intelligence across the upstream, midstream and downstream energy markets and all other major industrial markets. IIR's Global Market Intelligence Platform (GMI) supports our end-users across their core businesses, and helps them connect trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated project opportunities. Follow IIR on: LinkedIn.
