'Known, Unknown' Factors Roil Oil Prices, Frustrate Forecasters

January 12, 2023--Researched by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Ongoing concerns about global economic conditions prompted the U.S. government to drastically cut its forecast for crude oil prices, something of an outlier against calls for $100 crude oil.

The outlook from early 2022 onward was that the price of crude oil was entering a higher-for-longer scenario, given the war premium emanating from the conflict in Ukraine. Markets, however, are fluid. No longer, for example, do rig counts influence the price of oil like they did in the 2010s.

Data supplied from London oil broker PVM show Europe has managed to diversify its supply away from Russia by relying on Saudi Arabia, Norway and even Guyana, one of the newest players in crude oil.