Released February 15, 2019 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--In its annual long-term energy outlook, released February 14, executives from BP Plc (NYSE:BP) (London, England) sketched the dual strategy that energy providers around the world must respond to over the next two decades. "The world needs more energy and the world is demanding fewer carbon emissions," BP Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said in a webcast releasing the 2019 edition of its Energy Outlook.
Dudley said meeting the "more energy" demand through 2040 will require a broad portfolio of energy resource. "There's no one silver bullet," added Spencer Dale, BP's group chief economist.
This year's Energy Outlook includes four, and sometimes five, scenarios about how energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions could unfold through 2040. One scenario is named More Energy (ME), while others are labeled Evolving Transition (ET), Less Globalization (LG) and Rapid Transition (RT). Both Dudley and Dale stressed that none of these scenarios should be considered a "base case," nor should they be considered forecasts. Rather, the scenarios were presented to show the wide range of possible outcomes that could take place between now and 2040.
Click on the image at right to see BP's four scenarios about global energy demand, and the respective impact each would have on carbon dioxide emissions.
Most of the 90-minute briefing was given to how energy supply and demand could unfold under the Emerging Transition scenario.
Noting the "strong correlation between human development and energy consumption," Dudley said the "center of gravity" for energy consumption is shifting and will continue to shift over the next two decades. Population growth in emerging nations, and the expanding middle classes in Asia, account for much of the growth in global gross domestic product growth and energy consumption over the next 20 years, he predicted. The developing world will continue to electrify over this time.
In all the scenarios BP developed, world GDP more than doubles by 2040, driven by increasing prosperity in fast-growing developing economies, the company said. In its Evolving Transition scenario, the oil giant said an improvement in living standards would push up global energy demand by about 33% over 20 years, driven by India, China and other Asian countries, which together are expected to account for about 67% of the increase in energy demand.
"Energy consumption rises sharply as a society moves from low income to middle income, and 2.5 billion people in developing countries will be going through this transition over the next two decades," remarked Dale. "As a society transitions from middle income to wealthy, you don't see that kind of change in energy-consumption patterns. In that latter case, energy use plateaus when a society attains 'middle class' status."
The BP executives noted energy supply patterns also were shifting: the shale revolution is "catapulting" the U.S. into the world's largest producer of oil and gas, and the rapid growth of liquefied natural gas is transforming how natural gas is transported and traded around the globe.
But noting the link between energy demand and carbon emissions, the executives emphasized the "the emissions-reduction side of this dual challenge will mean shifting to a lower-carbon energy system, as the world seeks to move to a pathway consistent with meeting the climate goals outlined in the Paris Agreement. Much more progress and change are needed on a range of fronts if the world is to have any chance of moving on to such a pathway."
On several occasions during the briefing, Dale said, "If you want to do something about carbon emissions, you need to focus on the Power sector." He noted that renewable energy could meet up to 50% of the growth in global electric demand through 2040, but he hinted that even that would not be enough to check global warming.
In subsequent articles, Industrial Info will take a closer look at BP's 2019 Energy Outlook on a fuel-by-fuel basis.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
Dudley said meeting the "more energy" demand through 2040 will require a broad portfolio of energy resource. "There's no one silver bullet," added Spencer Dale, BP's group chief economist.
This year's Energy Outlook includes four, and sometimes five, scenarios about how energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions could unfold through 2040. One scenario is named More Energy (ME), while others are labeled Evolving Transition (ET), Less Globalization (LG) and Rapid Transition (RT). Both Dudley and Dale stressed that none of these scenarios should be considered a "base case," nor should they be considered forecasts. Rather, the scenarios were presented to show the wide range of possible outcomes that could take place between now and 2040.
Click on the image at right to see BP's four scenarios about global energy demand, and the respective impact each would have on carbon dioxide emissions.Most of the 90-minute briefing was given to how energy supply and demand could unfold under the Emerging Transition scenario.
Noting the "strong correlation between human development and energy consumption," Dudley said the "center of gravity" for energy consumption is shifting and will continue to shift over the next two decades. Population growth in emerging nations, and the expanding middle classes in Asia, account for much of the growth in global gross domestic product growth and energy consumption over the next 20 years, he predicted. The developing world will continue to electrify over this time.
In all the scenarios BP developed, world GDP more than doubles by 2040, driven by increasing prosperity in fast-growing developing economies, the company said. In its Evolving Transition scenario, the oil giant said an improvement in living standards would push up global energy demand by about 33% over 20 years, driven by India, China and other Asian countries, which together are expected to account for about 67% of the increase in energy demand.
"Energy consumption rises sharply as a society moves from low income to middle income, and 2.5 billion people in developing countries will be going through this transition over the next two decades," remarked Dale. "As a society transitions from middle income to wealthy, you don't see that kind of change in energy-consumption patterns. In that latter case, energy use plateaus when a society attains 'middle class' status."
The BP executives noted energy supply patterns also were shifting: the shale revolution is "catapulting" the U.S. into the world's largest producer of oil and gas, and the rapid growth of liquefied natural gas is transforming how natural gas is transported and traded around the globe.
But noting the link between energy demand and carbon emissions, the executives emphasized the "the emissions-reduction side of this dual challenge will mean shifting to a lower-carbon energy system, as the world seeks to move to a pathway consistent with meeting the climate goals outlined in the Paris Agreement. Much more progress and change are needed on a range of fronts if the world is to have any chance of moving on to such a pathway."
On several occasions during the briefing, Dale said, "If you want to do something about carbon emissions, you need to focus on the Power sector." He noted that renewable energy could meet up to 50% of the growth in global electric demand through 2040, but he hinted that even that would not be enough to check global warming.
In subsequent articles, Industrial Info will take a closer look at BP's 2019 Energy Outlook on a fuel-by-fuel basis.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
