Released January 16, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Solar power helped keep the lights on in Texas last year, but a study from the Dallas Fed found increased demand and now-frequent cold spells could make for an uncertain future.
A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that utility-scale solar power and battery storage set records last summer, with solar power alone satisfying 25% of the power needs between June 1 and August 31.
Industrial Info is tracking 438 solar power and BESS projects in Texas, worth nearly $169 billion. Fifty of those projects are assessed as having a high probability of moving forward as planned. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database can click here for the project reports.
During peak summer-demand times--between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. Central time--solar energy provided 17,000 megawatts (MW) of power to the grid last year, about 40% more than during the same period in 2023. Off-peak support came from battery storage, which also set a record last year.
"In critical evening hours, when load, or demand for electricity, remains elevated but solar output declines, discharge from batteries successfully filled the gap," the Dallas Fed reported.
Solar and battery storage levels, meanwhile, were such that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) did not issue any calls to conserve energy last year. It was forced to do so on 11 separate occasions in 2023.
On August 20, ERCOT, which meets the power demands for 90% of the consumers in the state, saw near-record peak demand of more than 85 gigawatts (GW). Temperatures reached a high of 101 degrees Fahrenheit in the late afternoon that day, with little to no wind.
Over the 24-hour period, ERCOT relied on power from fossil-fuel driven plants for about 66% of total generation, with the rest coming from wind, solar and nuclear power.
Winter presents a different scenario. The sun isn't shining as much and sub-zero temperatures can lead to frozen wind turbines and frozen gas lines. With highs next week expected to be barely above freezing for the greater Houston area, there's actually a chance for snow.
There's less daylight too during winter in North America. Peak loads, meanwhile, don't surface in the middle of the afternoon, but in the early mornings instead.
"Not only is this before the sun rises, when solar can't contribute any output, but it does not match as well with the typical one- to two-hour discharge capacity of the current battery storage resources within the ERCOT service area," the Dallas Fed's report found.
Apart from the weather, the Dallas Fed said it raised its forecast for peak summer load from 100,000 MW by 2030 to 148,000 MW due to large-load sources such as data centers and electrolyzers used in hydrogen production processes.
Last year, ERCOT warned of a "tremendous" growth in demand over the next five years, driven largely by data centers and upstream energy activity. Demand from data centers alone could double by 2030, from 17,000 MW to around 35,000 MW.
That could prove to be a low-end estimate. Outgoing President Joe Biden on Tuesday signed an executive order opening up federal lands for gigawatt-scale data centers capable of meeting the rigorous data needs of artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing.
Funding and incentives from ERCOT do not appear adequate to address the looming demand surge, the Dallas Fed added.
"While the Texas Energy Fund, created in 2023 to help finance electric generating facilities, has 10,000 MW of natural gas power plants in its queue today, deployment is several years away and comes with uncertainty," it advised.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that utility-scale solar power and battery storage set records last summer, with solar power alone satisfying 25% of the power needs between June 1 and August 31.
Industrial Info is tracking 438 solar power and BESS projects in Texas, worth nearly $169 billion. Fifty of those projects are assessed as having a high probability of moving forward as planned. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database can click here for the project reports.
During peak summer-demand times--between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. Central time--solar energy provided 17,000 megawatts (MW) of power to the grid last year, about 40% more than during the same period in 2023. Off-peak support came from battery storage, which also set a record last year.
"In critical evening hours, when load, or demand for electricity, remains elevated but solar output declines, discharge from batteries successfully filled the gap," the Dallas Fed reported.
Solar and battery storage levels, meanwhile, were such that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) did not issue any calls to conserve energy last year. It was forced to do so on 11 separate occasions in 2023.
On August 20, ERCOT, which meets the power demands for 90% of the consumers in the state, saw near-record peak demand of more than 85 gigawatts (GW). Temperatures reached a high of 101 degrees Fahrenheit in the late afternoon that day, with little to no wind.
Over the 24-hour period, ERCOT relied on power from fossil-fuel driven plants for about 66% of total generation, with the rest coming from wind, solar and nuclear power.
Winter presents a different scenario. The sun isn't shining as much and sub-zero temperatures can lead to frozen wind turbines and frozen gas lines. With highs next week expected to be barely above freezing for the greater Houston area, there's actually a chance for snow.
There's less daylight too during winter in North America. Peak loads, meanwhile, don't surface in the middle of the afternoon, but in the early mornings instead.
"Not only is this before the sun rises, when solar can't contribute any output, but it does not match as well with the typical one- to two-hour discharge capacity of the current battery storage resources within the ERCOT service area," the Dallas Fed's report found.
Apart from the weather, the Dallas Fed said it raised its forecast for peak summer load from 100,000 MW by 2030 to 148,000 MW due to large-load sources such as data centers and electrolyzers used in hydrogen production processes.
Last year, ERCOT warned of a "tremendous" growth in demand over the next five years, driven largely by data centers and upstream energy activity. Demand from data centers alone could double by 2030, from 17,000 MW to around 35,000 MW.
That could prove to be a low-end estimate. Outgoing President Joe Biden on Tuesday signed an executive order opening up federal lands for gigawatt-scale data centers capable of meeting the rigorous data needs of artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing.
Funding and incentives from ERCOT do not appear adequate to address the looming demand surge, the Dallas Fed added.
"While the Texas Energy Fund, created in 2023 to help finance electric generating facilities, has 10,000 MW of natural gas power plants in its queue today, deployment is several years away and comes with uncertainty," it advised.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
