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Released February 18, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Jill Sampson for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) released its 2025-2029 Capacity Demand and Reserves (CDR) report on February 13, which outlines future planning for resource adequacy. The summer peak net-load-hour margin could enter negative territory beginning summer 2026, followed by the peak load-hour margin in summer 2027, according to the report.
ERCOT operates Texas' electrical grid, the Texas Interconnection, which supplies power to more than 25 million customers and represents 90% of the state's electric load.
The report represents ERCOT's first multi-year CDR that incorporates its new method of load forecasting, the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) factors to account for contributions by wind, solar and batteries, plus accounting for newer demand response programs. The change in methodology is expected to help ERCOT more reliably anticipate benefits of inverter-based resources, large battery installations, rooftop solar contributions, while also accounting for an increase in electric vehicles charging during peak hours.
Models required for planning generation reserve margins for peak winter and summer seasons have become more complex as grid operators are having to model faster load growth by data centers, industrial oil and gas production facilities, and cryptocurrency mining operations while also expanding flexible demand response capabilities, balancing types of generation, and preventing load pockets in the transmission grid. ERCOT's Large Load Integration Team projects a cumulative 56.5-gigawatts (GW) of large loads online by the end of 2028.
The report said solar power (29.5 GW) is expected to continue outpacing other resource types in terms of installed capacity growth, followed by battery energy storage systems (BESS) (17.6 GW). However, natural gas (2.1 GW) and wind (3.5 GW) will still contribute significantly to the new generation portfolio by 2029. Generation projects like Competitive Power Ventures' (CPV) (Braintree, Massachusetts) 1,200-megawatt (MW) natural gas-fired Basin Ranch Energy Center project in Barstow, Texas, are being prioritized in places that allow supply from multiple gas supply lines and easy connection to the transmission grid. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database can click here for the Basin Ranch Energy Center project report.
ERCOT also took the unusual measure of suggesting 11 GW of dispatchable generation, not currently in the interconnection queue, to resolve remaining generation shortfall in study cases and to address the 24/7 nature of the anticipated new load. Suggested locations include both brownfield and greenfield locations that optimize transmission capacity, large load pockets, and avoid areas with ozone pollutant regulations. These include the closed Monticello Power Station in Mount Pleasant, Texas, and the Big Brown Power Station in Fairfield, Texas, which have ideal brownfield locations due to retiring generation with existing transmission infrastructure. Subscribers can click here for the Monticello and Big Brown plant profiles.
Greenfield locations in Riverton, Solstice, Navarro, Shamburger, Angstrom and Lon Hill would also take advantage of existing or planned transmission making them excellent locations for fast-tracking the needed generation.
The CDR forecast also incorporates assumptions from the transmission needs ERCOT addressed in the 2024 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) report and the discussions about introducing 765-kilovolt hour infrastructure into ERCOT's grid to allow more power to flow through long-distance transmission lines from remote generation centers to high-density load centers. If ERCOT does move to a mix of 345-kilovolt and 765-kilovolt transmission lines, the initial buildout of the 765-kilovolt grid would likely occur in the Permian Basin area.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
ERCOT operates Texas' electrical grid, the Texas Interconnection, which supplies power to more than 25 million customers and represents 90% of the state's electric load.
The report represents ERCOT's first multi-year CDR that incorporates its new method of load forecasting, the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) factors to account for contributions by wind, solar and batteries, plus accounting for newer demand response programs. The change in methodology is expected to help ERCOT more reliably anticipate benefits of inverter-based resources, large battery installations, rooftop solar contributions, while also accounting for an increase in electric vehicles charging during peak hours.
Models required for planning generation reserve margins for peak winter and summer seasons have become more complex as grid operators are having to model faster load growth by data centers, industrial oil and gas production facilities, and cryptocurrency mining operations while also expanding flexible demand response capabilities, balancing types of generation, and preventing load pockets in the transmission grid. ERCOT's Large Load Integration Team projects a cumulative 56.5-gigawatts (GW) of large loads online by the end of 2028.
The report said solar power (29.5 GW) is expected to continue outpacing other resource types in terms of installed capacity growth, followed by battery energy storage systems (BESS) (17.6 GW). However, natural gas (2.1 GW) and wind (3.5 GW) will still contribute significantly to the new generation portfolio by 2029. Generation projects like Competitive Power Ventures' (CPV) (Braintree, Massachusetts) 1,200-megawatt (MW) natural gas-fired Basin Ranch Energy Center project in Barstow, Texas, are being prioritized in places that allow supply from multiple gas supply lines and easy connection to the transmission grid. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database can click here for the Basin Ranch Energy Center project report.
ERCOT also took the unusual measure of suggesting 11 GW of dispatchable generation, not currently in the interconnection queue, to resolve remaining generation shortfall in study cases and to address the 24/7 nature of the anticipated new load. Suggested locations include both brownfield and greenfield locations that optimize transmission capacity, large load pockets, and avoid areas with ozone pollutant regulations. These include the closed Monticello Power Station in Mount Pleasant, Texas, and the Big Brown Power Station in Fairfield, Texas, which have ideal brownfield locations due to retiring generation with existing transmission infrastructure. Subscribers can click here for the Monticello and Big Brown plant profiles.
Greenfield locations in Riverton, Solstice, Navarro, Shamburger, Angstrom and Lon Hill would also take advantage of existing or planned transmission making them excellent locations for fast-tracking the needed generation.
The CDR forecast also incorporates assumptions from the transmission needs ERCOT addressed in the 2024 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) report and the discussions about introducing 765-kilovolt hour infrastructure into ERCOT's grid to allow more power to flow through long-distance transmission lines from remote generation centers to high-density load centers. If ERCOT does move to a mix of 345-kilovolt and 765-kilovolt transmission lines, the initial buildout of the 765-kilovolt grid would likely occur in the Permian Basin area.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
