Released January 30, 2023 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--In the race to replace carbon-dense fuels in the transportation sector, who goes first: supply or demand? To achieve that balance, it would really require a three-legged race. Tied together, they have to hit the finish line simultaneously.
If only it were that simple!
For electric vehicles (EVs), there are at least two different races. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which get 100% of their power from the plug, are considered the gold standard for green personal transportation. But for heavy duty vehicles like 18-wheelers, farm tractors and construction equipment, batteries are too bulky at the sizes that would be needed to move so much weight over such long operating times. So, there must be another, denser alternative for energy storage.
Many consider hydrogen, especially in liquid form as the key ingredient in ammonia, to be a better option. In this scenario, the vehicle is equipped to convert ammonia into hydrogen, which is pumped into a fuel cell, to power electric motors.
To that end, Brooklyn, New York-based Amogy, a developer of ammonia-fueled electric vehicles, recently announced testing of an ammonia-fueled semi-truck. In an exclusive email interview, IIR News asked company Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and co-founder Seonghoon Woo how he sees the supply-demand future playing out.
Where to Start
Among the first steps to building infrastructure involves deciding which one to build. Previously, we've discussed challenges with powering up to charge BEV trucks. For more information, see November 28, 2022, article - Study: Fast-Charging Stations for Heavy-Duty EV Trucks to Draw Same Power as Outdoor Stadiums.
Elon Musk is building these, to great fanfare, with thousands of them scheduled to emerge from Tesla Incorporated (NASDAQ:TLSA) (Austin, Texas) in the next few years.
In light of that and other challenges, for Woo, "One of the biggest barriers to overcome will be awareness of ammonia as a potential fuel. It's a known and widely-used compound but technological advancements, like ammonia cracking, have only emerged in recent years to showcase its viability as a hydrogen carrier for emissions-free fueling."
Because ammonia already is used extensively as a fuel and as fertilizer feedstock, some infrastructure is already in place to transport the commodity. This includes bunkering facilities and shipping vessels across land and sea. "We think the cost will be reasonable because ammonia is already easy to move and store."
It has also been abundant and inexpensive in the past. But in 2022, due largely to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ammonia supplies shrank and costs rose. Russia has been one of the biggest exporters of nitrogen-based fertilizers (ammonia being one part nitrogen and three parts hydrogen), and many countries began boycotting Russia after the war started. Prices in 2020 averaged around $487 per ton. By mid-2022 they had almost quadrupled, to $1,516 per ton by March of 2022.
With those cost increases, Woo maintains that ammonia is "relatively inexpensive compared to other alternative options, which is really what it should be compared to," because pivoting away from diesel is not considered optional for most. The growing number of government subsidies, including those in the U.S., will help reduce the cost.
The other end of the scale lies in finding ways "to efficiently scale power platforms capable of meeting real-world requirements for heavy duty vehicles," Woo said. Amogy is among many, including airplane manufacturers, working on ammonia-powered vehicles.
What Is the Future
Specifically, Woo sees ammonia as the way of the future "for maritime and commercial heavy-duty ground transportation." His reasons are that it's carbon-free, at least at end use, and "is three times more energy dense than compressed hydrogen and five times more (energy dense) than a battery." It allows for lighter, quicker power trains and lets vehicles travel much further between refueling stops than batteries do.
Hydrogen and ammonia as green fuel is a work in progress, Woo agrees. "While ammonia can be manufactured using wind, solar and other renewable energy sources, almost all of today's ammonia supplies are manufactured using fossil fuels. (That kind of) ammonia production alone accounts for 1 to 2% of total world CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions."
As reported previously, green hydrogen projects are ramping up due to the growth in government funding. Some of that CO2 can be mitigated with carbon capture and storage (CCS), turning gray hydrogen (made from natural gas while releasing CO2 into the air) into blue. Some government funding is going that direction as well. For more information, see January 9, 2023, article - Report: Hydrogen, Carbon Capture to Vie with Wind, Solar.
But many experts wonder if green or blue (from natural gas, with carbon capture and storage as part of the process) hydrogen can actually expand market share beyond 2-4% as overall demand also increases due to vehicular use. Any growth green hydrogen does see should help disconnect its price from that of natural gas.
From here it's hard to see the finish line. Unlike the century-long singular reign of fossil fuels, the green future may be more diverse. And "finish line" implies a clear winner, an end to the race. This race may continue for a long time.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
If only it were that simple!
For electric vehicles (EVs), there are at least two different races. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which get 100% of their power from the plug, are considered the gold standard for green personal transportation. But for heavy duty vehicles like 18-wheelers, farm tractors and construction equipment, batteries are too bulky at the sizes that would be needed to move so much weight over such long operating times. So, there must be another, denser alternative for energy storage.
Many consider hydrogen, especially in liquid form as the key ingredient in ammonia, to be a better option. In this scenario, the vehicle is equipped to convert ammonia into hydrogen, which is pumped into a fuel cell, to power electric motors.
To that end, Brooklyn, New York-based Amogy, a developer of ammonia-fueled electric vehicles, recently announced testing of an ammonia-fueled semi-truck. In an exclusive email interview, IIR News asked company Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and co-founder Seonghoon Woo how he sees the supply-demand future playing out.
Where to Start
Among the first steps to building infrastructure involves deciding which one to build. Previously, we've discussed challenges with powering up to charge BEV trucks. For more information, see November 28, 2022, article - Study: Fast-Charging Stations for Heavy-Duty EV Trucks to Draw Same Power as Outdoor Stadiums.
Elon Musk is building these, to great fanfare, with thousands of them scheduled to emerge from Tesla Incorporated (NASDAQ:TLSA) (Austin, Texas) in the next few years.
In light of that and other challenges, for Woo, "One of the biggest barriers to overcome will be awareness of ammonia as a potential fuel. It's a known and widely-used compound but technological advancements, like ammonia cracking, have only emerged in recent years to showcase its viability as a hydrogen carrier for emissions-free fueling."
Because ammonia already is used extensively as a fuel and as fertilizer feedstock, some infrastructure is already in place to transport the commodity. This includes bunkering facilities and shipping vessels across land and sea. "We think the cost will be reasonable because ammonia is already easy to move and store."
It has also been abundant and inexpensive in the past. But in 2022, due largely to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ammonia supplies shrank and costs rose. Russia has been one of the biggest exporters of nitrogen-based fertilizers (ammonia being one part nitrogen and three parts hydrogen), and many countries began boycotting Russia after the war started. Prices in 2020 averaged around $487 per ton. By mid-2022 they had almost quadrupled, to $1,516 per ton by March of 2022.
With those cost increases, Woo maintains that ammonia is "relatively inexpensive compared to other alternative options, which is really what it should be compared to," because pivoting away from diesel is not considered optional for most. The growing number of government subsidies, including those in the U.S., will help reduce the cost.
The other end of the scale lies in finding ways "to efficiently scale power platforms capable of meeting real-world requirements for heavy duty vehicles," Woo said. Amogy is among many, including airplane manufacturers, working on ammonia-powered vehicles.
What Is the Future
Specifically, Woo sees ammonia as the way of the future "for maritime and commercial heavy-duty ground transportation." His reasons are that it's carbon-free, at least at end use, and "is three times more energy dense than compressed hydrogen and five times more (energy dense) than a battery." It allows for lighter, quicker power trains and lets vehicles travel much further between refueling stops than batteries do.
Hydrogen and ammonia as green fuel is a work in progress, Woo agrees. "While ammonia can be manufactured using wind, solar and other renewable energy sources, almost all of today's ammonia supplies are manufactured using fossil fuels. (That kind of) ammonia production alone accounts for 1 to 2% of total world CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions."
As reported previously, green hydrogen projects are ramping up due to the growth in government funding. Some of that CO2 can be mitigated with carbon capture and storage (CCS), turning gray hydrogen (made from natural gas while releasing CO2 into the air) into blue. Some government funding is going that direction as well. For more information, see January 9, 2023, article - Report: Hydrogen, Carbon Capture to Vie with Wind, Solar.
But many experts wonder if green or blue (from natural gas, with carbon capture and storage as part of the process) hydrogen can actually expand market share beyond 2-4% as overall demand also increases due to vehicular use. Any growth green hydrogen does see should help disconnect its price from that of natural gas.
From here it's hard to see the finish line. Unlike the century-long singular reign of fossil fuels, the green future may be more diverse. And "finish line" implies a clear winner, an end to the race. This race may continue for a long time.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
