Released May 28, 2021 | SUGAR LAND
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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Retail sales of electricity in the U.S. are forecast to increase 1.5% this summer in comparison with sales in the summer of 2020.
"Much of the growth we expect will occur in the commercial and industrial sectors, reflecting an improving economy following the pandemic-related downturn in 2020," the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says in its Summer 2021 Electricity Outlook.
However, the EIA forecasts U.S. residential sector retail sales of electricity this summer will be 0.9% lower than last summer, largely due to milder weather forecasted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The residential decrease is offset somewhat by growth in the number of residential customers and by more people working from home than in past years.
Between June and August 2020, overall U.S. retail electricity sales across all consumption sectors totaled 1.06 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh), the lowest amount consumed since summer 2015.
However, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) warns that parts of North America are at elevated or high risk of energy shortfalls this summer during above-normal peak temperatures. NERC's Summer 2021 Summer Reliability Assessment shows adequate resources and energy for most of North America, but Texas, New England, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) transmission region and parts of the West are at an elevated risk of energy shortfalls.
In particular, California falls in the "high risk" category. The Golden State relies on large energy imports during times of peak demand and when solar power output drops in the evening hours, NERC said. While more than 3 gigawatts (GW) of additional resources are expected in California this summer compared with 2020, most will be solar photovoltaic (PV) generation.
"Though new flexible resources have been added in California, peak demand projections have also increased in many parts of the West, and overall resource capacity is lower compared to 2020," according to NERC.
Texas is assessed as having an elevated risk of energy shortfalls this summer, even though on-peak planning reserve margins in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid region have increased to 15.3% from 12.9% last summer with the addition of more than 7.8 GW of wind, solar and battery resources since 2020. "However, extreme summer can affect both resources and demand and cause energy shortages that lead to energy emergencies in ERCOT. Furthermore, with a significant portion of electricity supply coming from wind generators, operators must have sufficient flexible resources to cover periods of low-wind output."
Still, the Texas grid operator sees only a small likelihood of widespread power disruptions during the months ahead. For more information, see May 17, 2021, article - ERCOT Projects Lights Will Stay on in Texas This Summer.
Another wildcard in the summer power scenario, at least along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, is the 2021 hurricane season.
NOAA is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, but does not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020. For 2021, it predicts a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
"Much of the growth we expect will occur in the commercial and industrial sectors, reflecting an improving economy following the pandemic-related downturn in 2020," the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says in its Summer 2021 Electricity Outlook.
However, the EIA forecasts U.S. residential sector retail sales of electricity this summer will be 0.9% lower than last summer, largely due to milder weather forecasted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The residential decrease is offset somewhat by growth in the number of residential customers and by more people working from home than in past years.
Between June and August 2020, overall U.S. retail electricity sales across all consumption sectors totaled 1.06 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh), the lowest amount consumed since summer 2015.
However, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) warns that parts of North America are at elevated or high risk of energy shortfalls this summer during above-normal peak temperatures. NERC's Summer 2021 Summer Reliability Assessment shows adequate resources and energy for most of North America, but Texas, New England, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) transmission region and parts of the West are at an elevated risk of energy shortfalls.
In particular, California falls in the "high risk" category. The Golden State relies on large energy imports during times of peak demand and when solar power output drops in the evening hours, NERC said. While more than 3 gigawatts (GW) of additional resources are expected in California this summer compared with 2020, most will be solar photovoltaic (PV) generation.
"Though new flexible resources have been added in California, peak demand projections have also increased in many parts of the West, and overall resource capacity is lower compared to 2020," according to NERC.
Texas is assessed as having an elevated risk of energy shortfalls this summer, even though on-peak planning reserve margins in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid region have increased to 15.3% from 12.9% last summer with the addition of more than 7.8 GW of wind, solar and battery resources since 2020. "However, extreme summer can affect both resources and demand and cause energy shortages that lead to energy emergencies in ERCOT. Furthermore, with a significant portion of electricity supply coming from wind generators, operators must have sufficient flexible resources to cover periods of low-wind output."
Still, the Texas grid operator sees only a small likelihood of widespread power disruptions during the months ahead. For more information, see May 17, 2021, article - ERCOT Projects Lights Will Stay on in Texas This Summer.
Another wildcard in the summer power scenario, at least along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, is the 2021 hurricane season.
NOAA is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, but does not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020. For 2021, it predicts a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
