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Released January 02, 2018 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The pace of North American natural gas-fired Power development appears ready to accelerate in 2018 and 2019, surpassing the high levels of development activity in prior years, according to Industrial Info's Global Marketing Intelligence (GMI™) platform. Industrial Info does not expect all power projects scheduled to begin construction in 2018 or 2019 will proceed according to schedule. However, the high level of projects scheduled to begin turning dirt over the next two years means the "dash to gas" generation trend of recent years seems likely to quicken.

Developers have scheduled 136 power generation projects to begin construction this year, a dramatic jump construction kickoffs in earlier years. In 2019, construction start dates have been established for 130 electric generation, cogeneration and industrial energy projects, according to Industrial Info's GRI platform. By contrast, in 2015, 18 gas-fired power generation projects began construction, and in 2016, 27 gas-fired power generation projects were scheduled to begin turning dirt.

Click to view powerkickoffs
Click on the image at right to see the dollar value per year of North American gas-fired power generation projects scheduled to begin construction kick off in 2015-2019.

Ohio, Texas and Virginia are the states with the largest dollar value of gas-fired power generation projects scheduled to begin construction this year. In 2018, nine North American states or provinces have a billion dollars or more of gas-fired power projects scheduled to begin construction. In 2019, Texas, Pennsylvania and New Jersey are the states with the largest dollar value of gas-fired power projects expected to begin construction. That year, 13 states or provinces have a billion dollars or more of gas-fired generation projects ready to kick off, according to the GMI platform.

Click to view NAMprojectKO2018 Click on the images at right to see graphs of the North American states or provinces expected to see the greatest dollar value of gas-fired power generation construction activity in 2018 and 2019.



Click to view 2019KO
It's probably no coincidence that most of the states poised for the greatest level of gas-fired power development lie atop or near unconventional gas formations like the Marcellus, Utica, Barnett or Permian formations. Natural gas costs are relatively low and are expected to remain low for the next year at least, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) December Short-Term Energy Outlook. Natural gas prices at Henry Hub are forecast to remain close to $3 per million British thermal units in 2018, virtually unchanged from 2017, said the EIA (Washington, D.C.).

Click to view henryhub
Click on the image at right to see the EIA's projection of natural gas prices at Henry Hub, Louisiana.

The biggest gas-fired power projects scheduled to begin construction this year include:
  • Guernsey Power Station, a 1,640-megawatt project valued at about $1.5 billion. Scheduled to be built in Ohio and developed by Apex Power Group LLC (Plainfield, Indiana), construction is expected to start in March and be finished by August 2020. View this project report here.
  • Charles City Power Station, a 1,650-MW power station scheduled to be built in Charles City, Virginia. Construction of this $1.3-billion grassroot project is scheduled to begin in late 2018 and be finished by mid-2021. View the project report for this power station here.
  • Mattawoman Generating Station, a $1.2-billion, 990-MW grassroot project scheduled to be built in Prince Georges County, Maryland. Panda Power Funds (Dallas, Texas) is developing this project and Bechtel (San Francisco, California) is providing engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services. View the project report for this power station here.
"As 2018 begins, developers certainly have a large book of gas-fired power business ready to begin turning dirt across North America," said Britt Burt, Industrial Info's vice president of research for the Global Power Industry. "We don't expect all of those projects will begin construction according to their current schedule: some will be pushed back and some will be cancelled, if history is any guide. Even so, it seems safe to say that the Power Industry's 'dash to gas' will continue, if not gather speed, in 2018 and 2019."

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle™, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
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