IIR's August 12 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
U.S. deploys submarine to Middle East; Israel anticipates direct attack from Iran		U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the USS Georgia guided-missile submarine to the Middle East and told the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to speed up its voyage to the region, as Israeli security officials anticipate imminent direct retaliation from Iran over the recent assassination of a top Hamas leader in Tehran.	The Washington Post	AAA: Gas Prices Stable After Debby, But Watch for Geopolitical Risk
Moscow promises 'tough response' to Ukraine's offensive inside Russia		...Ukrainian advances into western Kursk region had penetrated more than 10km (six miles) past the border - making it the furthest since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. On Sunday, Russia appeared to acknowledge that Ukrainian forces had advanced still further. Its defence ministry said it engaged Ukrainian troops near towns 25km and 30km from the border Moscow has vowed a "tough" response to the incursion and a Ukrainian missile strike on a residential building in Kursk that it said injured at least 11, the foreign ministry said	BBC	U.S. Rig Count, Citgo: Your Daily Energy News
OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast, highlighting dilemma over Oct hike		OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 citing softer expectations for China, a reduction that highlights the dilemma faced by the wider OPEC+ group in raising production from October. This is the first cut in OPEC's 2024 forecast since it was made in July 2023, and comes after mounting signs that demand in China has lagged expectations due to slumping diesel consumption and as a crisis in the property sector hampers the economy.	Reuters	Latest Updates on Dangote, Nashan Yulong, Dos Bocas Grassroot Refineries
European markets slightly lower; Yen dips; Gold firms with U.S., UK inflation in focus this week		European stocks on Monday traded slightly lower while the yen resumed its slow decline against the dollar on Monday after volatile trading last week. Investors weighed the odds of a deep Fed rate cut next month ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data. Meanwhile, Gold prices inched higher on Monday on U.S. interest rate cut optimism and brewing geopolitical tensions, while traders looked to key U.S. inflation data due later this week for more monetary policy cues.	CNBC	Williams Companies Upbeat on Growth as Gas Demand Skyrockets
Natural Gas News: Bullish Reversal Confirmed		U.S. natural gas futures surged on Monday, breaking through the crucial $2.187 resistance level and confirming a bullish weekly closing price reversal bottom. This move signals renewed bullish sentiment driven by favorable weather forecasts, tighter supply conditions, and increased interest from money managers. Hurricane Debby's landfall in Florida introduced complex dynamics to the market. While the storm reduced cooling demand by bringing cooler temperatures-a bearish factor-its impact was balanced by disruptions in supply chains and power outages. Additionally, cooler temperatures forecasted across northern regions are expected to continue suppressing demand, particularly in the Southeast. However, the overall effect of weather patterns remains a key factor driving near-term market sentiment.	FX Empire	Is New-Build, Gas-Fired Generation Making a Comeback in the U.S.?
Legal complexities add to Beijing's South China Sea disputes with its neighbours		Tensions are mounting in the South China Sea - a hotly contested and globally significant waterway that's become a flashpoint for conflict. In recent weeks, two of the countries with competing territorial claims in the South China Sea have asked the United Nations to recognise that the outer limits of their boundaries should extend beyond 200 nautical miles. Vietnam's proposal in July to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) followed a similar submission the previous month by the Philippines.	South China Morning Post	Resumption of Vietnam's First Integrated Petrochemicals Complex Set for October
Geopolitical Tensions Are Transforming the Rare Earth Market		The rare earth market is undergoing a shift in geographical supply chain concentration, spurred by Western efforts to reduce reliance on China off the back of growing demand, focus on national security, and the strategic importance of the materials. The rare earths market is in a state of flux, finding itself at the crossroads of technological innovation and geopolitical tension. China's long-standing dominance remains strong but is gradually waning with its share of global production declining from 98% in 2010 to 78% in 2015 and down to 67% last year as producers in Australia and the US, backed by substantial government support, ramp up activity.	OilPrice	Big Tech, Energy Transition and Conflict Minerals: A Growing Concern
Week 08/05/24 - 08/12/24		Geopolitical tensions ratcheting up significantly vs. souring fundamentals drives nearly all of the conversations around the water cooler in regards to these energy commodity markets these days. For the moment, geopolitical strife is adding risk premium to Mr. Oil Market - as Iran retaliation seems nigh as well as Moscow responding to Ukraine's incursion into its territory. However, OPEC+ finally had to toss in the towel on oil demand growing here in 2024 as continued China economic woes weigh on the overall marketplace. Now all eyes turn to the latest U.S. and U.K. economic data while awaiting Fed announcements on a September rate cut. This after the global financial market whipsaw this past week. Hard for one to truly know which way is up...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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