IIR's November 27 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Discussions are underway about Monday's hostage list on fourth day of truce		Monday is the fourth--and possibly final--day of the truce between Israel and Hamas. But today's hostage handover is throwing up a few challenges. There are a number of ongoing issues, three sources briefed on the discussions said, including ensuring that children on the list are not released without their mothers or grandmothers who might also be in captivity. (..58 hostages have been released from Gaza since Friday..) Israel, Hamas and the United States, mediated by Qatar, are currently working through those issues, according to the sources. There is also the possibility that the truce could be extended beyond Monday, with both sides indicating their interest in continuing the pause in fighting. No such deal has been announced, but the agreed-upon truce already includes a provision for an extension of one extra day for every 10 hostages Hamas is ready to free.	CNN	Today's Refining Hotline Headlines
Oil Prices Forecast: OPEC+ Summit Key to 2024 Oil Inventory, Market Stability		As OPEC+ nears a critical decision on production, global oil markets face volatility and potential surplus challenges. Brent crude oil prices edged lower on Monday, moving towards $80 a barrel, in anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting set to discuss supply cuts extending into 2024. Recent Volatility and OPEC+ Delay Last week's oil market experienced notable fluctuations. Speculations that Saudi Arabia and Russia might prolong supply cuts into early 2024 influenced trading. However, OPEC+ delayed a key meeting to November 30 to address production target disagreements, especially for African nations, sparking mid-week price drops. Consensus and Market Reaction Recent reports suggest OPEC+ is nearing an agreement, with market watchers eyeing Saudi Arabia's potential continuation of a 1 million barrel-per-day voluntary cut. Any deviation could pressure the market further, considering the expected surplus in early 2024. Global Supply and Demand Outlook OPEC's export reductions align with supply targets, yet the United Arab Emirates plans to boost Murban crude exports next year. The International Energy Agency anticipates a slight surplus in 2024, even if OPEC+ extends cuts, due to a deceleration in demand growth.	FXEmpire	ADM, Marathon Start Up Soybean Plant to Produce Renewable Diesel Feedstock
Houthi Tanker Seizures Could Reignite the War Premium in Oil Markets		- Oil prices have remained remarkably depressed since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, a testament to the impressive diplomatic efforts being carried out in the region. - Recent seizures of vessels in the Gulf of Aden by Iran-backed Houthi forces could cause the risk premium for oil prices to rise dramatically. - China will play a critical role in deciding how this develops, with the ability to use its influence in the region to stop Iran-backed forces from escalating any conflict in the region.	OilPrice	Ecopetrol Considers Natural Gas Imports from Venezuela
Nat-Gas Prices Fall as U.S. Weather Forecasts Turn Warmer		Nat-gas prices Friday fell to a 2-month nearest-futures low and closed moderately lower on the outlook for warmer U.S. temperatures to reduce heating demand for nat-gas. The Commodity Weather Group said most of the U.S. is seeing warmer forecasts for Nov 29-Dec 3, with a faster re-warming for the eastern half of the U.S. than previously expected. Lower-48 state dry gas production Friday was 105.4 bcf/day (+4.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 91.6 bcf/day (+24.2% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals on Friday were 14.8 bcf/day (+8.3% w/w), according to BNEF.	bartchart	Snam Confirms Italy's Second Floating LNG Terminal
Oil-and-Gas Companies Account for Only 1% of Clean-Energy Investment Globally, IEA Says		As the world prepares to travel to the COP28 climate summit, hosted by the United Arab Emirates, a new report warns that the fossil-fuel industry isn't investing enough in decarbonization. Despite earning average annual revenues of $3.5 trillion since 2018, oil-and-gas companies are spending just 2.5% of their investment on clean energy, which is about 1% of the global clean-energy spend, according to the International Energy Agency. And 60% of that comes from just four companies out of thousands of producers. "Clean energy progress will continue with or without oil and gas producers," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. "However, the journey to net zero emissions will be more costly, and harder to navigate, if the sector is not on board." The IEA estimated about half of the industry's capital expenditures should go toward clean energy projects by 2030 to be on track for the Paris climate agreement target. The fossil-fuel industry could leverage the skills and resources used for oil-and-gas extraction, processing and transportation to scale up low-emissions fuels and technologies such as hydrogen, liquid biofuels, biomethane and geothermal energy, the organization said.	WSJ	Is Biden's '30 by 30' Offshore Windpower Plan Still Attainable?
COP28: What key issues will be discussed at UN climate change conference?		Following a year of record heat and drought, this year's U.N. climate summit will feature a contentious set of issues for countries working to find common ground in tackling climate change, including whether to phase out fossil fuels and how to finance the energy transition in developing countries. TAKING STOCK OF CLIMATE PROGRESS The main task at COP28 is a first-time assessment of countries' progress towards meeting the 2015 Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the global temperature rise to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius, while aiming for 1.5C. FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS The toughest talks at COP28 may focus on the future role of fossil fuels, and whether countries should commit to start phasing out the use of CO2 emitting coal, oil and gas. TECHNOLOGIES TO TACKLE EMISSIONS The UAE and other countries whose economies are dependent on fossil fuels want COP28 to include a focus on nascent technologies designed to capture and store CO2 emissions underground. BOOSTING CLEAN ENERGY CAPACITY Countries will consider setting goals to triple renewable energy capacity and to double energy savings by 2030 - a proposal made by the European Union, United States and the UAE's COP28 presidency. FINANCING FOR THE COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Tackling climate change and its consequences will take an astonishing amount of investment - far more than the world has budgeted so far.	Reuters	Northern Africa Invests US$17 Billion in Green Hydrogen
Week 11/20/23 - 11/27/23		All aboard the COP28 UAE express, which is pulling out of the station later this week, granted into a volatile energy world that is dealing with two wars in Eastern Europe as well as the Middle East, though the latter is in an uneasy truce for the moment. A world that is far from any sort of consensus on an energy/environment/sustainability roadmap for the years ahead. A world that just experienced a Summer of Xtremes and is heading into a likely Winter of the Weird, albeit one which surprisingly recently witnessed the U.S. and China agree on a climate pact. And one where this same Eagle and Dragon--granted from different agendas--strove to broker peace in the Middle East leading into COP28 UAE. A world awaiting the outcome, as those in hydrocarbons and those versed in climatetech seek to find any viable middle ground away from all the "finger pointing" of these last several years.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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