IIR's November 6 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
UN leaders say Gaza war must 'stop now'		U.N. agency leaders saying "enough is enough" demanded a humanitarian ceasefire on Monday nearly a month into Gaza's war, as health authorities in the enclave said the death toll from Israeli strikes now exceeded 10,000. Israel has rebuffed mounting international pressure for a ceasefire, saying hostages taken by Hamas militants during their rampage in southern Israel on Oct. 7 should be released first. "An entire population is besieged and under attack, denied access to the essentials for survival, bombed in their homes, shelters, hospitals and places of worship. This is unacceptable," the U.N. chiefs said in a joint statement. "We need an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. It's been 30 days. Enough is enough. This must stop now." The 18 signatories include the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk, World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, and U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths.	Reuters	Hydrogen Hubs, Including Houston, Ramp Up Activity
A Less Hawkish Fed Could Jumpstart The Oil Price Rally		In recent times, fears of a spillover in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which could embroil Iran and its allies in the region, have offered considerable support to oil prices. Unfortunately for the bulls, the oil price momentum has fizzled out with the war risk premium that helped fuel an oil price rally in the early days of the Israel-Hamas war all but gone thanks to Israel's ground incursion into Gaza proving to be less extensive than some investors expected. But that's just part of the picture, with no shortage of bearish catalysts in the oil markets. China's economy continues sending mixed signals with recent reports of an unfolding debt crisis overshadowing earlier reports of robust demand for key commodities including oil, copper and iron ore. Second, the Biden administration has temporarily eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil exports to help the country in efforts to conduct a fair presidential election next year, a move that analysts estimate could add as much as 200,000 bpd to oil markets. Third, U.S. crude oil production has surged to an all-time high of 13.2 million bpd, blunting a good chunk of OPEC+ cuts. Finally, weekly data from Vortexa show the volume of crude in global floating storage increased +5.8% w/w to 74.69 million bbl as of Oct 27, a sign of flagging demand. All these factors have taken a heavy toll on oil prices. Luckily for the bulls, one major positive catalyst might provide the necessary thrust to pull oil prices out of the stall: a less hawkish Fed. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25-5.5%, a move that could do a world of good for oil and commodity prices.	OilPrice	Shell Aside, Investors Unimpressed with Big Oil's Third Quarter
Oil Analysis: Inventories, OPEC, & Production Key		US Oil exhibits a modest uptick in the recent 4-hour trading window, with the current price ascending 0.82% to $81.63. Key technical levels show a dynamic field of play; the pivot point at $82.75 hints at immediate resistance forming at $84.73, with successive challenges at $86.32 and $88.12. On the downside, support starts building at $80.27, trailed by $79.05 and $77.40. The RSI indicator rests below the midline at 47, conveying a bearish sentiment in the current market atmosphere. Meanwhile, the MACD suggests a neutral to bearish trend without clear directional impetus. The 50 EMA stands slightly above the current price at $82.80, indicating a potential pivot for a short-term bearish bias. The chart patterns reveal a downward channel, corroborated by the resistance level at $82.75, emphasizing a bearish outlook unless breached. Conclusively, the overall trend leans bearish with US Oil grappling below $82.75. In the short term, barring any significant bullish catalysts, the forecast anticipates US Oil to linger below the pivot, potentially challenging the immediate support levels.	FX Empire	China's WEPEC to Invest in Refining Complex
Nat-Gas Prices Rise on Weather Forecasts		Nat-gas prices Friday rallied on weather forecasts suggesting stronger nat-gas demand. The Commodity Weather Group is looking for warm temperatures in the southeastern and upper parts of central U.S. Nov 8-12, but cooler weather in parts of the West. Lower-48 state dry gas production Friday was 104.4 bcf/day (+4.9% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Friday was 78.9 bcf/day (+17.6% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Friday were 14.6 bcf/day (+5.5% w/w), according to BNEF. High inventories caused by carryover from the mild 2022/23 winter and weak heating demand have undercut nat-gas prices. Gas storage across Europe was 99% full as of October 29, above the 5-year seasonal average of 90% full for this time of year. U.S. nat-gas inventories as of October 27 were +5.7% above their 5-year seasonal average.	FX Empire	Targa Piles on Gas-Processing Capacity in Permian, Gulf Coast
Major wind energy developer scraps two big offshore projects		Wind energy developer Orsted is writing off $4 billion, due largely to the cancellation of two large offshore wind projects in New Jersey whose financial challenges mirror those facing the nascent industry. It added fresh uncertainty to an industry seen by supporters as a way to help end the burning of planet-warming fossil fuels, but derided by opponents as inherently unworkable without massive financial subsidies. The Danish company said Tuesday night it is scrapping its Ocean Wind I and II projects off the coast of southern New Jersey due to problems with supply chains, higher interest rates, and a failure to obtain the amount of tax credits the company wanted. "These are obviously some very tough decisions," Mads Nipper, Orsted's CEO, said on an earnings conference call Wednesday. He said the company, the world's largest offshore wind developer, decided "to de-risk the most painful part of our portfolio, and that is the U.S."	NBC News	Europe Turns to Africa For Critical Raw Materials
Week 10/30/23 - 11/06/23		Enter the month of Thanks-Be-Giving. Although the World is dealing with a number of geopolitical & humanitarian crises from Eastern Europe to the Middle East to the South China Sea; so one might wonder how much to truly be thankful for. Well, as much angst as there is in the world today, diplomacy in a form/fashion is somewhat working as Ukraine recently hosted a peace conference and the UN is seeking a ceasefire in the Middle East. Also, a European to global energy crunch is not as seemingly dire as it once was but we still have a Winter to work our way through. Maybe there will be positive signs to be thankful for coming out of COP28 at the end of this month as well.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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