IIR's September 25 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Low chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico		A cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico has a low chance of possible development into a tropical system over the next few days and is forecast to not have an impact on Louisiana. There is only a very low chance, 10%, that it could become a tropical depression or stronger over the next few days.Right now, this disorganized area of showers and storms is fighting a bout of dry air along with areas of high wind shear. These should keep further organization and strengthening to a minimum.	WDSU News	TC Energy, U.S. Rig Count: Your Daily Energy News
Crude Oil Price Forecast Crude Oil Markets Gap to the Upside		The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gapped to the upside to kick off the trading session, only to turn around and show signs of negativity. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to consolidate more than anything else, but it does have a bullish undertone to it, and that isn't going to change anytime soon. Underneath, the $85 level is a significant support level, and we also have the 50-Day EMA racing toward it, so that being said, I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before the buyers come back to pick up value. If we can break above the $92.50 level, then the market is likely to go looking toward the $95 level. All things being equal, crude oil will continue to show signs of strength.	FX Empire	Enbridge Aims to Add Capacity as Trans Mountain Expansion Stalls
Exxon sees $16 billion in earnings for fuels, chemicals by 2027		Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) expects its motor fuels and chemicals earnings to reach $16 billion by 2027, up about $4 billion from current levels as demand continues to rise, executives said on Wednesday. The largest U.S. oil company has been generating strong refining profits this year in part on a massive expansion of refining capacity and focus on higher margin chemicals. Executives forecast gasoline demand will not peak until late this decade, a much longer timeframe than other forecasters. Exxon combined its once separate chemicals and oil refining businesses and redesigned operations to quickly shift between fuels and chemicals based on which delivers the highest profit. Its fuels outlook differs from oil-consuming nations group International Energy Agency, which expects the use of oil for transportation fuels to decline after 2026. U.S. gasoline use likely topped out in 2018, the U.S. government has said.	Reuters	South Korea's SK picglobal Invests in Chemical Projects
Natural Gas Prices Forecast: Weather and EU's LNG Dependence Shape Gas Market		With steady LSEG-reported US natural gas output, the market is shaped by trade dynamics, EU strategies, and a cautiously bullish geopolitical forecast. Weather Dictates the Market Natural gas prices showed a minor rise on Monday, driven mainly by current weather patterns rather than geopolitical or supply-demand forces. The relatively mild weather across the U.S. has capped demand, but with occasional warm periods in the southern U.S., there's a fluctuating need for cooling. The absence of significant events over the weekend, like the conclusion of the Australian strike, also kept the trading landscape fairly calm. Supply and Demand Dynamics The U.S. has witnessed consistent and steady supply levels with LSEG reporting an average gas output in the lower 48 states at 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this September. However, there was a minor dip from the 102.3 bcfd record in August. On the demand side, a small decrease in U.S. energy firm rigs could impact future output. Specifically, oil rigs dropped to their lowest since February 2022.	FX Empire	Natural Gas Pricing May Hinge on El Nino, Polar Vortex
Energy Department announces $325M for batteries that can store clean electricity longer		The Energy Department has announced a $325 million investment in new battery types that can help turn solar and wind energy into 24-hour power. The funds will be distributed among 15 projects in 17 states and the Red Lake Nation, a Native American tribe based in Minnesota. Batteries are increasingly being used to store surplus renewable energy so that it can be used later, during times when there is no sunlight or wind. The department says the projects will protect more communities from blackouts and make energy more reliable and affordable. "Everywhere in the U.S. has issues with intermittent renewable energy ... every day the sun sets and you have to be able to take the energy that you produced during the day and use that at nighttime," said Christopher Rahn, professor of mechanical engineering at Pennsylvania State University.	BarChart	Fall Nuclear Plant Refueling and Maintenance Outage Time is Here
At a Summit on Climate Ambition, the U.S. and China End Up on the B List		The world's two biggest polluters were not invited to speak at a United Nations meeting designed to highlight effective action against warming. "Climate action is dwarfed by the scale of the challenge," Mr. Guterres said in his opening remarks at the summit. "We must make up time lost to foot-dragging, arm-twisting and the naked greed of entrenched interests raking in billions from fossil fuels." The Climate Ambition Summit, as the event was called, was held on the sidelines of the annual General Assembly meeting and included leaders of countries, states, cities and companies, and coincided with a U.N. Security Council meeting on the war in Ukraine, which for a second year has dominated the assembly's agenda. The summit was a nod by Mr. Guterres to increasing frustration from smaller and poorer countries that the war has been distracting richer nations from pledges they've made to help developing countries, most of which bear little responsibility for the emissions warming the planet, manage the risks of climate change and transition to renewable energy.	New York Times	Federal Tax Credits to Pay for Most of Xcel Energy's Proposed $15 Billion Clean Power Plan
Week 09/18/23 - 09/25/23		Appears a new reality.. one above $90 for Mr. Oil Market is settling in; however, there is still some belief although by only a few who have been run over by this Bull Train that "reality will bite" and price will once again retrace back below $85. Last week, many of the World's Central Banks met and mostly decided to take "a pause" on rates led by the Fed; but that does not mean a pause on the global troubled economy in this high inflationary environment. As Wall Street took a beating.. Economies drive Demand.. One would think that faltering Demand even in a short Supply market would be the reality of the moment; but that is just not the case.. yet...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).