Reports related to this article:
Project(s): View 4 related projects in PECWeb
Plant(s): View 3 related plants in PECWeb
Released May 19, 2023 | SUGAR LAND
en
Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Summer doesn't officially begin until June 21, but the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) says two-thirds of North America is at risk of energy shortfalls this summer during periods of extreme demand.
The 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment includes no high-risk areas, but the number of areas deemed as being at elevated risk has increased, according to NERC, which oversees six regional reliability entities and encompasses all interconnected power systems of Canada and the contiguous U.S., as well as part of the Mexican state of Baja California.
Mark Olson, NERC's manager of Reliability Assessments, said in a Wednesday press release that "increased, rapid deployment of wind, solar and batteries have made a positive impact. However, generator retirements continue to increase the risks associated with extreme summer temperatures, which factors into potential supply shortages in the western two-thirds of North America if summer temperatures spike."
NERC indicated that while resources are adequate for normal summer peak demand, if summer temperatures spike, seven areas--the U.S. West, Southwest Power Pool (SPP), Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC) Central, New England and Ontario--may face supply shortages during higher demand levels.
Click on the image at right for a NERC map showing areas with elevated risks of potential electric supply shortages.
ERCOT warned earlier this month that Texans may experience electrical emergencies under extreme conditions. The agency said a growing percentage of the state's peak electric demand is being met with non-dispatchable resources like wind power and solar energy, which increasingly ties the state's electricity fortunes to weather conditions. Texas is hot enough on "average" summers, and high temperatures reduce wind. A hotter-than-normal summer means wind turbines will generate even less electricity than usual. For more information, see May 10, 2023, article - Texans May Face 'Extreme' Power Conditions this Summer.
According to NERC's reliability assessment, areas in the U.S. West are at elevated risk due to wide-area heat events that can drive above-normal demand and strain resources and the transmission network, while in SPP and MISO, wind energy output will be key to meeting normal summer peak and extreme demand levels due to little excess firm capacity. The SERC Central Region is forecasting higher peak demand and less supply capacity, creating challenges for operators to maintain reserves in extreme scenarios, while New England has lower available capacity than last year, resulting in a higher likelihood of system operators using emergency procedures to manage extreme demand conditions.
In Ontario, extended nuclear refurbishment has reduced available capacity, limiting system reserves needed to manage peak demand. Industrial Info is tracking four nuclear plant modernization- and life-extension projects under construction in Ontario, with a combined value of more than US$13 billion. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Industry Project Database can click here for the detailed project reports.
Industrial Info also is tracking 69 planned power industry maintenance outages in the U.S. and Canada from June through September that factor into the electricity supply scenario. Subscribers can click here for a list of detailed project reports.
Click on the image at right for a graph showing U.S. and Canadian planned power maintenance projects this summer by market region.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
The 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment includes no high-risk areas, but the number of areas deemed as being at elevated risk has increased, according to NERC, which oversees six regional reliability entities and encompasses all interconnected power systems of Canada and the contiguous U.S., as well as part of the Mexican state of Baja California.
Mark Olson, NERC's manager of Reliability Assessments, said in a Wednesday press release that "increased, rapid deployment of wind, solar and batteries have made a positive impact. However, generator retirements continue to increase the risks associated with extreme summer temperatures, which factors into potential supply shortages in the western two-thirds of North America if summer temperatures spike."
NERC indicated that while resources are adequate for normal summer peak demand, if summer temperatures spike, seven areas--the U.S. West, Southwest Power Pool (SPP), Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC) Central, New England and Ontario--may face supply shortages during higher demand levels.
ERCOT warned earlier this month that Texans may experience electrical emergencies under extreme conditions. The agency said a growing percentage of the state's peak electric demand is being met with non-dispatchable resources like wind power and solar energy, which increasingly ties the state's electricity fortunes to weather conditions. Texas is hot enough on "average" summers, and high temperatures reduce wind. A hotter-than-normal summer means wind turbines will generate even less electricity than usual. For more information, see May 10, 2023, article - Texans May Face 'Extreme' Power Conditions this Summer.
According to NERC's reliability assessment, areas in the U.S. West are at elevated risk due to wide-area heat events that can drive above-normal demand and strain resources and the transmission network, while in SPP and MISO, wind energy output will be key to meeting normal summer peak and extreme demand levels due to little excess firm capacity. The SERC Central Region is forecasting higher peak demand and less supply capacity, creating challenges for operators to maintain reserves in extreme scenarios, while New England has lower available capacity than last year, resulting in a higher likelihood of system operators using emergency procedures to manage extreme demand conditions.
In Ontario, extended nuclear refurbishment has reduced available capacity, limiting system reserves needed to manage peak demand. Industrial Info is tracking four nuclear plant modernization- and life-extension projects under construction in Ontario, with a combined value of more than US$13 billion. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Industry Project Database can click here for the detailed project reports.
Industrial Info also is tracking 69 planned power industry maintenance outages in the U.S. and Canada from June through September that factor into the electricity supply scenario. Subscribers can click here for a list of detailed project reports.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
