Released July 08, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Bucking the rightward trends seen in their mainland neighbors' recent polling, British voters overwhelmingly supported center and center-left parties in yesterday's election. Current results give Labour at least 412 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, with the Conservatives getting only about 121 seats.
This would be the Conservatives' worst showing in almost two centuries, and it's Labour's biggest landslide since their Tony Blair-led 1997 victory. Labour's Keir Starmer will begin forming a government immediately, with a huge mandate for its policies.
The centrist Liberal Democrats also gained seats, rising from relative oblivion to become the third-largest seat holder.
Several issues brought about the Conservatives' downfall, with unpopular moves causing them to shuffle through three prime ministers in just one year. Two revelations hurt them significantly: that party insiders were betting on the date of the snap election, and that staffers had held private parties onsite while the rest of the nation was isolated under COVID shutdowns.
Outgoing PM Rishi Sunak's decision to call a snap election after seeing inflation data drop to target levels is now widely seen as a mistake.
For Labour, Starmer had in recent years moved his party away from the left and more toward the center, meaning this election moved the nation less radically leftward than it might appear. Some have compared his policies with those of the immensely popular Tony Blair's "New Labour" party. Starmer is seen as pragmatic and as an effective organizer.
Can They Deliver?
Will landslide of this magnitude be too much of a good thing? Observers say that expectations will be high for Labour to deliver quickly on their campaign promises--which experience shows is never easy.
The economy, housing and immigration are leading issues over the last six months for British voters, with health fourth, then crime and the environment taking a rather distant fifth and sixth in polls through June 23. As the economy relates to affordable housing, those two issues appear to be closely related.
And while post-COVID inflation has indeed dropped to target levels of 2%, fixing an economy is never simple, and can involve short-term economic pain including the higher interest rates that may now be coming down.
Energy Promises
Those recent polls show voters put the environment at a distant sixth in importance, so this election would not seem to be a mandate toward the energy transition. And unlike elsewhere in Europe, the difference in environmental plans between Conservatives and Labour are not overwhelming.
Both had announced plans to fund green initiatives, with Labour earmarking £8.3 billion compared to the Conservatives' £1.1 billion for green industry and £6 billion for boosting insulation in homes.
Labour's Warm Homes Plan would invest in upgrading five million homes with insulation, solar panels and other green options. Overall, their stated goals include, by 2030: doubling onshore wind installations, tripling solar power, and quadrupling offshore wind.
Conservatives had pledged to speed such permitting while also promising no new "green taxes" to pay for any initiatives. Labour, on the other hand, plans to increase and extend the "windfall profits" tax on oil and gas companies, adding 3% to the tax and applying it through the end of the next parliament.
Labour has also promised no new licenses for oil, gas or coal, whereas Conservatives would have increased licenses. Both parties were set to maintain the ban on fracking.
Perhaps most significantly, Sunak had stated that the pledged ban on sales of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2030 was too costly, pushing it back to 2035. Labour is likely to restore the 2030 goal.
On the Positive Side
While elections in France and elsewhere have left a murky future of coalitions and compromise, Britain faces no such uncertainty. Labour's super majority will empower it rule unfettered by any other considerations. And some observers have said that the party avoided making any extreme claims, leaving the bar of success very low.
Change is coming to the Isles--and how that plays out will be interesting to see.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
This would be the Conservatives' worst showing in almost two centuries, and it's Labour's biggest landslide since their Tony Blair-led 1997 victory. Labour's Keir Starmer will begin forming a government immediately, with a huge mandate for its policies.
The centrist Liberal Democrats also gained seats, rising from relative oblivion to become the third-largest seat holder.
Several issues brought about the Conservatives' downfall, with unpopular moves causing them to shuffle through three prime ministers in just one year. Two revelations hurt them significantly: that party insiders were betting on the date of the snap election, and that staffers had held private parties onsite while the rest of the nation was isolated under COVID shutdowns.
Outgoing PM Rishi Sunak's decision to call a snap election after seeing inflation data drop to target levels is now widely seen as a mistake.
For Labour, Starmer had in recent years moved his party away from the left and more toward the center, meaning this election moved the nation less radically leftward than it might appear. Some have compared his policies with those of the immensely popular Tony Blair's "New Labour" party. Starmer is seen as pragmatic and as an effective organizer.
Can They Deliver?
Will landslide of this magnitude be too much of a good thing? Observers say that expectations will be high for Labour to deliver quickly on their campaign promises--which experience shows is never easy.
The economy, housing and immigration are leading issues over the last six months for British voters, with health fourth, then crime and the environment taking a rather distant fifth and sixth in polls through June 23. As the economy relates to affordable housing, those two issues appear to be closely related.
And while post-COVID inflation has indeed dropped to target levels of 2%, fixing an economy is never simple, and can involve short-term economic pain including the higher interest rates that may now be coming down.
Energy Promises
Those recent polls show voters put the environment at a distant sixth in importance, so this election would not seem to be a mandate toward the energy transition. And unlike elsewhere in Europe, the difference in environmental plans between Conservatives and Labour are not overwhelming.
Both had announced plans to fund green initiatives, with Labour earmarking £8.3 billion compared to the Conservatives' £1.1 billion for green industry and £6 billion for boosting insulation in homes.
Labour's Warm Homes Plan would invest in upgrading five million homes with insulation, solar panels and other green options. Overall, their stated goals include, by 2030: doubling onshore wind installations, tripling solar power, and quadrupling offshore wind.
Conservatives had pledged to speed such permitting while also promising no new "green taxes" to pay for any initiatives. Labour, on the other hand, plans to increase and extend the "windfall profits" tax on oil and gas companies, adding 3% to the tax and applying it through the end of the next parliament.
Labour has also promised no new licenses for oil, gas or coal, whereas Conservatives would have increased licenses. Both parties were set to maintain the ban on fracking.
Perhaps most significantly, Sunak had stated that the pledged ban on sales of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2030 was too costly, pushing it back to 2035. Labour is likely to restore the 2030 goal.
On the Positive Side
While elections in France and elsewhere have left a murky future of coalitions and compromise, Britain faces no such uncertainty. Labour's super majority will empower it rule unfettered by any other considerations. And some observers have said that the party avoided making any extreme claims, leaving the bar of success very low.
Change is coming to the Isles--and how that plays out will be interesting to see.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
