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Released July 29, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Retail gasoline prices in the United States are stable and well below year-ago levels, though refinery issues mean some consumers aren't so lucky, travel club AAA finds.

AAA put the national average retail price on Friday at $3.51 for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, slightly higher than month-ago levels, but far better than the $3.68 national average for this time last year.

The price of crude oil accounts for about half of what consumers see at the pump, with the rest coming from taxes, transportation and other costs.

"In April, a barrel of oil was in the upper $80s, but today, it is $10 a barrel cheaper," said AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross. "That might mitigate any upward pressure on pump prices."

The price for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, is down about 5% so far in July, trading at around $77.50 per barrel before U.S. markets opened on Friday.

Prices are in retreat after a strong showing on Thursday, led by U.S. data showing inflation eased and the economy grew better than expected during the second quarter. Prices may be supported further, however, by wildfires raging in the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta.

Another point of concern for prices at the pump is the status of the U.S. refinery complex. While the national average remains suppressed relative to year-ago levels, drivers in the Midwest are seeing elevated prices due to an outage at a refinery in Illinois.

Industrial Info issued an alert July 15 noting that Exxon Mobil Corporation's (NYSE:XOM) (Irving, Texas) refinery in Joliet lost power after severe storms rolled through the area. The facility can process 250,000 barrels of oil per day (BBL/d).

"Some of the uptick in gasoline prices may be due to a reported storm-related outage at the ExxonMobil refinery in Joliet, Illinois," said AAA's Gross. "That's contributing to higher pump prices in the upper Midwest."

Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Petroleum Refining Plant Database can learn more about the Joliet refinery from a detailed plant profile.

Chicago-area commuters can expect to see prices flirting with $4.50 per gallon.

IIR data show Joliet is expected to return to service by August 11. Elsewhere in the refinery-rich U.S. Gulf Coast, IIR data show distillation units at Chevron Corporation's (NYSE:CVX) (San Ramon, California) Pasadena refinery and Exxon's Beaumont refinery, both in Texas, are offline for a combined 280,000 BBL/d curtailment.

Pasadena should return to service by the end of August, while Beaumont should only be down through Tuesday at the latest. Gas prices in Texas, however, are well below the national average at $3.14 per gallon.

Subscribers can read more information on the Pasadena and Beaumont refineries.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Energy Department, expects retail gasoline prices to average $3.40 per gallon on the year, increasing to $3.50 for 2025.

Broader markets remain volatile given the range of global risks. Voters in the United States head to the polls in just four months for what's proved to be a raucous contest, with incumbent President Joe Biden dropping out recently in favor of his vice president, Kamala Harris.

While largely baked in to market prices, conflict in the Middle East remains something of a wildcard as the Houthi rebel group in Yemen continues to target commercial shipping. The U.S. military said Thursday it shot down a Houthi drone that was seen as a threat to its forces and marine traffic in and around the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
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