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Released September 11, 2019 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The details may change slightly, but the direction is clear: The Tennessee Valley Authority (NYSE:TVE) (Knoxville, Tennessee) will see a lot more solar power in its electric fuel mix and a lot less coal. In late August, the TVA Board of Directors approved a 20-year integrated resource plan (IRP) that was the culmination of 18 months of analytic and outreach work.
In an August 22 statement following adoption of the IRP, TVA President and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Lyash noted the plan will reduce the TVA's carbon footprint over the next two decades. He added, "The energy market continues to evolve and the IRP helps provide us flexible ways to keep delivering safe, reliable and cleaner power at the lowest feasible cost while supporting efficient use of energy."
The board presentation on August 22 also noted the reduction of emissions from TVA-owned generating assets over the prior 45 years.
Click on the image at right to see the reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) since 1974.
The TVA is a corporate agency of the U.S. government that provides electricity for business customers and local power distributors. It serves nearly 10 million people in parts of seven southeastern states. The TVA receives no taxpayer funding, deriving virtually all of its revenues from sales of electricity.
During fiscal year (FY) 2018 (ended September 30, 2018), 54% of the TVA's electricity came from carbon-free generation, mainly nuclear power and hydro. In 10 years, the agency expects to have non-carbon resources generate an ever-greater amount of its electricity, depending on market, customer load growth, regulatory and other factors.
In the current fiscal year (FY 2019, ending September 30, 2019), about 40% of the TVA's electricity will come from nuclear power, 26% from natural gas and 20% from coal. By contrast, in FY 2007, the TVA's fuel mix was: 58% coal, 26% nuclear and 10% gas. Looking forward to FY 2028, the agency wants its fuel mix to be: 42% nuclear, 23% gas, 19% coal, 10% hydro and 5% solar and wind.
Click on the images at right to see pie charts for the TVA's electric fuel mixes for FYs 2007, 2019 and 2028.
Industrial Info is tracking 81 TVA projects valued at about $2 billion that are scheduled to begin construction by yearend 2023. The biggest-ticket items on that list include: replacing steam generator turbines at Watts Bar Unit 2; modernizing hydroelectric generators in Alabama, Tennessee and North Carolina; an extended power uprate at the Browns Ferry Unit 2; and various coal ash pond compliance projects.
Here is a summary of how TVA plans to change its electric fuel mix over the next 20 years:
Solar: The agency plans to add between 1,500 megawatts (MW) and 8,000 MW of solar by 2028 and up to 14,000 MW by 2038. Additions may be a combination of utility and distributed scale. Future solar needs are driven by pricing, customer demand and demand for electricity. The TVA expects the new solar generation will be a mix of owned and contracted power. Last year, the TVA issued a request for proposals (RFP) for 200 MW of solar generation; the agency has not yet selected a winning bidder, according to spokesman Scott Brooks.
Coal: The TVA will continue plans to decarbonize its fuel mix by continuing plans to retire the Paradise Fossil Plant next year and the Bull Run Generating Station in 2023. Up to 2,200 additional MW of coal-fired generating capacity also could close during the next 20 years, depending on market conditions, regulatory changes and other factors. Paradise, a 2,150-MW plant located in Drakesboro, Kentucky, began generating electricity in 1963. Bull Run, a 950-MW facility located in Clinton, Tennessee, started generating electricity in 1967. Beyond those two plants, by 2034 the TVA plans to close seven of the nine operating units at the Shawnee Power Station in West Paducah, Tennessee. Units 1 and 4 at Shawnee are expected to continue operating past the 2038 IRP timeframe. Shawnee Unit 10 has been retired. The agency said it expects to continue operating the Cumberland, Gallatin and Kingston plants over the IRP's 20-year timeframe.
Gas -- Combustion Turbines: Evaluate retirements of up to 2,000 MW of existing combustion turbines (CTs) if cost-effective. Add up to 5,200 MW of CT capacity by 2028 and up to 8,600 MW by 2038 if a high level of load growth materializes. Future CT needs are driven by demand for electricity, solar penetration and the evolution of other peaking technologies.
Gas -- Combined Cycle: Add between 800 MW and 5,700 MW of combined-cycle (CC) generation additions by 2028 and up to 9,800 MW by 2038 if a high level of load growth materializes. Future CC needs are driven by demand for electricity and gas prices, as well as by solar penetration, which tend to drive CT instead of CC additions.
Nuclear: In addition to plans to replace the steam turbine generator at Watts Bar Unit 2 and secure an extended power uprate (EPU) at Browns Ferry Unit 2, the TVA will pursue a second license extension of Browns Ferry for an additional 20 years. The agency also will continue evaluating emerging nuclear technologies including Small Modular Reactors.
Storage: Add up to 2,400 MW of storage by 2028 and up to 5,300 MW by 2038. Additions may be a combination of utility and distributed scale. The trajectory and timing of additions will be highly dependent on the evolution of storage technologies.
Wind: Existing wind contracts expire in the early 2030s. Consider the addition of up to 1,800 MW of wind by 2028 and up to 4,200 MW by 2038 if cost-effective.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook-Twitter-LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com/.
In an August 22 statement following adoption of the IRP, TVA President and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Lyash noted the plan will reduce the TVA's carbon footprint over the next two decades. He added, "The energy market continues to evolve and the IRP helps provide us flexible ways to keep delivering safe, reliable and cleaner power at the lowest feasible cost while supporting efficient use of energy."
The board presentation on August 22 also noted the reduction of emissions from TVA-owned generating assets over the prior 45 years.
The TVA is a corporate agency of the U.S. government that provides electricity for business customers and local power distributors. It serves nearly 10 million people in parts of seven southeastern states. The TVA receives no taxpayer funding, deriving virtually all of its revenues from sales of electricity.
During fiscal year (FY) 2018 (ended September 30, 2018), 54% of the TVA's electricity came from carbon-free generation, mainly nuclear power and hydro. In 10 years, the agency expects to have non-carbon resources generate an ever-greater amount of its electricity, depending on market, customer load growth, regulatory and other factors.
In the current fiscal year (FY 2019, ending September 30, 2019), about 40% of the TVA's electricity will come from nuclear power, 26% from natural gas and 20% from coal. By contrast, in FY 2007, the TVA's fuel mix was: 58% coal, 26% nuclear and 10% gas. Looking forward to FY 2028, the agency wants its fuel mix to be: 42% nuclear, 23% gas, 19% coal, 10% hydro and 5% solar and wind.
Industrial Info is tracking 81 TVA projects valued at about $2 billion that are scheduled to begin construction by yearend 2023. The biggest-ticket items on that list include: replacing steam generator turbines at Watts Bar Unit 2; modernizing hydroelectric generators in Alabama, Tennessee and North Carolina; an extended power uprate at the Browns Ferry Unit 2; and various coal ash pond compliance projects.
Here is a summary of how TVA plans to change its electric fuel mix over the next 20 years:
Solar: The agency plans to add between 1,500 megawatts (MW) and 8,000 MW of solar by 2028 and up to 14,000 MW by 2038. Additions may be a combination of utility and distributed scale. Future solar needs are driven by pricing, customer demand and demand for electricity. The TVA expects the new solar generation will be a mix of owned and contracted power. Last year, the TVA issued a request for proposals (RFP) for 200 MW of solar generation; the agency has not yet selected a winning bidder, according to spokesman Scott Brooks.
Coal: The TVA will continue plans to decarbonize its fuel mix by continuing plans to retire the Paradise Fossil Plant next year and the Bull Run Generating Station in 2023. Up to 2,200 additional MW of coal-fired generating capacity also could close during the next 20 years, depending on market conditions, regulatory changes and other factors. Paradise, a 2,150-MW plant located in Drakesboro, Kentucky, began generating electricity in 1963. Bull Run, a 950-MW facility located in Clinton, Tennessee, started generating electricity in 1967. Beyond those two plants, by 2034 the TVA plans to close seven of the nine operating units at the Shawnee Power Station in West Paducah, Tennessee. Units 1 and 4 at Shawnee are expected to continue operating past the 2038 IRP timeframe. Shawnee Unit 10 has been retired. The agency said it expects to continue operating the Cumberland, Gallatin and Kingston plants over the IRP's 20-year timeframe.
Gas -- Combustion Turbines: Evaluate retirements of up to 2,000 MW of existing combustion turbines (CTs) if cost-effective. Add up to 5,200 MW of CT capacity by 2028 and up to 8,600 MW by 2038 if a high level of load growth materializes. Future CT needs are driven by demand for electricity, solar penetration and the evolution of other peaking technologies.
Gas -- Combined Cycle: Add between 800 MW and 5,700 MW of combined-cycle (CC) generation additions by 2028 and up to 9,800 MW by 2038 if a high level of load growth materializes. Future CC needs are driven by demand for electricity and gas prices, as well as by solar penetration, which tend to drive CT instead of CC additions.
Nuclear: In addition to plans to replace the steam turbine generator at Watts Bar Unit 2 and secure an extended power uprate (EPU) at Browns Ferry Unit 2, the TVA will pursue a second license extension of Browns Ferry for an additional 20 years. The agency also will continue evaluating emerging nuclear technologies including Small Modular Reactors.
Storage: Add up to 2,400 MW of storage by 2028 and up to 5,300 MW by 2038. Additions may be a combination of utility and distributed scale. The trajectory and timing of additions will be highly dependent on the evolution of storage technologies.
Wind: Existing wind contracts expire in the early 2030s. Consider the addition of up to 1,800 MW of wind by 2028 and up to 4,200 MW by 2038 if cost-effective.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook-Twitter-LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com/.
