Released September 08, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land,
Texas)--Total U.S. crude oil production trends continue to point to record-high levels of output, though signs of trouble are starting to boil up to the surface, data show.
The United States relies on foreign supplies of heavy crude oil to feed much of its refinery sector, though the nation remains one of the largest producers, supported by the vast reserves from inland shale basins.
The Permian Basin straddling parts of Texas and New Mexico is the most prolific reservoir by far, with the expected 6.53 million barrels per day (BBL/d) for 2025 accounting for 48% of total production. That's about as much as the combined output from Iraq and Kuwait, economists at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported.
Weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the Energy Department, show total U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.4 million BBL/d for the week ending August 29, a 2% increase over the same period last year. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile indicator, showed production up 0.5% from last year.
Total production trends remain on par with the annual forecast from the EIA, despite emerging headwinds for the industry. Crude oil prices are down about 7% so far this year amid concerns that trade policies from U.S. President Donald Trump will undermine growth.
Successive quarterly surveys from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that crude oil prices are below the point at which many shale drillers can make a profit. Last week, meanwhile, oilfield services firm Baker Hughes Company (Houston, Texas) reported the total North American rig count was down about 10% from year-ago levels.
Bad things are starting to show up in the economic data and in energy company performance. On Friday, U.S. data showed a measly 22,000 jobs added to non-farm payrolls last month.
Last week, ConocoPhillips (Houston) said it would cut up to 25% of its workforce amid industry pressure from lower oil prices, an oversupplied market and U.S. economic uncertainty. The supermajor joined the likes of Chevron Corporation (Houston), which relocated to Texas from California and shed about 20% of its staff earlier this year. For more on the ConocoPhillips layoffs, see September 5, 2025, article - ConocoPhillips Staff Cuts Follow Industry Trend in Difficult Conditions.
Kaes Van't Hof, the director and chief executive officer at Diamondback Energy Incorporated (Midland, Texas), said last month that the U.S. shale sector may have plateaued in terms of production. Operators may be doing more with less, however, by using multi-bore wells and miles-long laterals during production.
That said, the gas-to-oil ratio in many shale basins is changing due to maturation. Over time, lighter molecules associated with natural gas are more prone to release to the production well, leaving heavier oil-based compounds trapped in the subsurface pores. Permian gas production is expected to increase marginally by next year, while crude oil production is forecast to decline by 1% compared to the 2025 average.
Total U.S. crude oil production looks to be holding up, though the market could face serious pressure by next year should EIA price forecasts prove accurate. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, to average $63.58 per barrel in 2025, relatively close to current levels. WTI is expected to decline to $47.77 per barrel by next year.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
The United States relies on foreign supplies of heavy crude oil to feed much of its refinery sector, though the nation remains one of the largest producers, supported by the vast reserves from inland shale basins.
The Permian Basin straddling parts of Texas and New Mexico is the most prolific reservoir by far, with the expected 6.53 million barrels per day (BBL/d) for 2025 accounting for 48% of total production. That's about as much as the combined output from Iraq and Kuwait, economists at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported.
Weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the Energy Department, show total U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.4 million BBL/d for the week ending August 29, a 2% increase over the same period last year. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile indicator, showed production up 0.5% from last year.
Total production trends remain on par with the annual forecast from the EIA, despite emerging headwinds for the industry. Crude oil prices are down about 7% so far this year amid concerns that trade policies from U.S. President Donald Trump will undermine growth.
Successive quarterly surveys from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that crude oil prices are below the point at which many shale drillers can make a profit. Last week, meanwhile, oilfield services firm Baker Hughes Company (Houston, Texas) reported the total North American rig count was down about 10% from year-ago levels.
Bad things are starting to show up in the economic data and in energy company performance. On Friday, U.S. data showed a measly 22,000 jobs added to non-farm payrolls last month.
Last week, ConocoPhillips (Houston) said it would cut up to 25% of its workforce amid industry pressure from lower oil prices, an oversupplied market and U.S. economic uncertainty. The supermajor joined the likes of Chevron Corporation (Houston), which relocated to Texas from California and shed about 20% of its staff earlier this year. For more on the ConocoPhillips layoffs, see September 5, 2025, article - ConocoPhillips Staff Cuts Follow Industry Trend in Difficult Conditions.
Kaes Van't Hof, the director and chief executive officer at Diamondback Energy Incorporated (Midland, Texas), said last month that the U.S. shale sector may have plateaued in terms of production. Operators may be doing more with less, however, by using multi-bore wells and miles-long laterals during production.
That said, the gas-to-oil ratio in many shale basins is changing due to maturation. Over time, lighter molecules associated with natural gas are more prone to release to the production well, leaving heavier oil-based compounds trapped in the subsurface pores. Permian gas production is expected to increase marginally by next year, while crude oil production is forecast to decline by 1% compared to the 2025 average.
Total U.S. crude oil production looks to be holding up, though the market could face serious pressure by next year should EIA price forecasts prove accurate. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, to average $63.58 per barrel in 2025, relatively close to current levels. WTI is expected to decline to $47.77 per barrel by next year.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
