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Released November 10, 2020 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Rhode Island recently decided to double down on offshore wind power, but a lot of the industry is still holding its breath over delays in permitting from the U.S. Department of Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) (Washington, D.C.). That agency is taking its time issuing permits for four offshore wind projects developed by Orsted A/S (Fredericia, Denmark) that are scheduled to be constructed on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS).

Rhode Island last year contracted for 400 megawatts (MW) of capacity from the Revolution Windfarm, slated to be built by Orsted southwest of Martha's Vineyard, off the Massachusetts coast. Construction of that project is scheduled to begin in late 2021, but Orsted officials recently said they may have to push the start of construction to early 2022 or later unless BOEM issues the required permits soon. Current plans call for the proposed project to begin operating by yearend 2023, but if permits are held up, that date may get pushed back as well.

On October 27, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo said her state will issue a request for proposal (RFP) for up to 600 MW of offshore wind in early 2021. If built, that wind capacity would meet about 36% of the state's electric demand. The RFP is being developed by National Grid (Westborough, Massachusetts), under the supervision of the state's Office of Energy Resources (Providence, Rhode Island).

This past January, the governor issued an executive order for Rhode Island to get all of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030--an aggressive target.

The nation's first offshore windfarm, the 30-MW Block Island project, located off the coast of Massachusetts, began operating in 2016. That renewable electricity is going to Rhode Island.

On January 17, 2020, when Gov. Raimondo issued an executive order mandating that 100% of Rhode Island's electricity come from renewable sources by 2030, she said: "When we meet this goal, Rhode Island will be the first state in America to be powered by 100% renewable electricity. We're already leading the fight against climate change, but we have to take increasingly aggressive action if we want to avoid catastrophe. As governor of a coastal state and mom to two teenagers, I'm fully committed to protecting the beauty of our state and our way of life for future generations."

The U.S. has eight offshore windfarm projects scheduled to begin construction over the next four quarters, valued at about $6.4 billion, according to Industrial Info Resources' Global Marketing Intelligence platform. Longer term, the platform says there are 66 other active offshore windfarm projects in the U.S. being developed. The total investment value (TIV) of all U.S. offshore windfarm projects being developed is about $78 billion.

Some of these projects have been delayed for years, and Industrial Info currently assesses many as having a low probability (0-69%) of moving forward as planned.

The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) (Washington, D.C.) estimated that the U.S. now has a total offshore wind pipeline of more than 28,000 MW in federal lease areas. The group predicted 14 projects totaling 9,112 MW of capacity will be operational by 2026. AWEA said New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Virginia and Rhode Island were among the states with the most aggressive offshore wind power plans.

Rhode Island's plans, if fulfilled, would make it the state with the largest percentage of its electricity coming from offshore windfarms.

But these plans are running into opposition from commercial fishermen, who say the planned turbines would damage fishing yields. Some wealthy individuals also oppose offshore wind projects, claiming they would damage their views of the ocean.

Late last month, during its earnings call with investors, Orsted officials said construction start dates for four U.S. offshore projects could be delayed a year or more due to federal permitting delays. Executives with the Danish developer said it still awaiting permitting clarity from the BOEM for four projects on the East Coast.

Permitting has been held up after the BOEM ordered a supplementary environmental impact statement (EIS) into the impact of offshore wind projects on the Outer Continental Shelf.

Orsted President and Chief Executive Henrik Poulsen said the company had expected to receive a notice of intent from BOEM to begin advanced-stage development of four projects by now. Poulsen said: "Even assuming the permitting process starts moving within the first quarter next year, it appears highly likely that Revolution Wind, Ocean Wind, Skipjack and Sunrise Wind will be delayed beyond the previously expected 2023 and 2024 construction years."

The 400-MW Revolution project is scheduled to begin construction in October 2021, according to Industrial Info's Global Marketing Intelligence platform, and to begin operating by yearend 2023. That project has total investment value (TIV) of about $546 million. A second phase of the Revolution project, sized at about 300 MW, is scheduled to kick off construction in mid-2022 and to be operating by yearend 2023. Phase 2 has a TIV of about $660 million.

"Until there is a clear timeline from BOEM, we cannot re-baseline our construction schedules," Poulsen told investors October 28. "With regards to the South Fork [project, off the coast of Long Island], we remain comfortable about our previously communicated timeline, with a commercial operation date of late 2023."

Farther south along the Atlantic Coast, Dominion Energy (NYSE:D) (Richmond, Virginia) has been developing plans to construct up to 2,600 MW of offshore wind power off the Virginia coast. The project, scheduled to be built in three phases, would be located about 27 miles off the coast of Virginia Beach. Each phase would include about 880 MW of generating capacity.

Ocean survey work is expected to begin in 2020, and a construction and operations plan will be submitted in 2022, the company said. If all goes according to plan, 880-MW tranches would come online in 2024, 2025 and 2026. Last month, Dominion Energy completed reliability testing on the 12-MW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project, and it is scheduled to begin commercial operations by yearend 2020.

In 2018, then-president Trump opened the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) to energy development, including wind power, but he quickly reversed himself, exempting offshore development off the coasts of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina from July 1, 2022, until June 30, 2032. Weeks before the election, he said he was considering extending the ban to Virginia, though no official executive action was taken.

Bloomberg News reported that BOEM spokeswoman Tracey Moriarty said, in an email to the news outlet, "The withdrawal includes all energy leasing, including conventional and renewable energy, beginning on July 1, 2022." Existing offshore energy leases are not set to be affected by the orders, including existing windfarm rights off the coasts of Virginia and North Carolina. But the offshore energy bans could imperil future offshore wind development.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
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