Released April 21, 2021 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--"China is back" is the top-line takeaway from the annual report on global energy use prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris). China's economic resurgence--its gross domestic product (GDP) rose 18.3% for the first quarter, compared with the year-earlier quarter--carries important implications for global coal demand, oil demand, renewable energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
China's strict lockdown in early 2020 to contain and fight the COVID-19 pandemic paid economic dividends for the world's second-largest economy, as it was one of the few nations to experience positive GDP growth last year. Its economy began 2021 on a tear, surging during the first three months of 2021 compared to the first three months of 2020, observed the IEA report, Global Energy Review 2021: Assessing the Effects of Economic Recoveries on Global Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions in 2021, released April 20.
China and other developing economies are leading the recovery in global GDP growth and energy demand, according to the report, which projected China's GDP would grow about 11% this year when compared with 2019. The U.S. economy, by contrast, is expected to grow about 3% this year, compared with 2019's pre-pandemic growth. Overall, the IEA report projected global GDP would grow about 6% in 2021, the highest rate in decades and more than offsetting the 3.5% decline in 2020.
Click on the image at right to see a global GDP projection for 2021, compared with GDP growth since 1990.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at about 3% this year, while GDP in Japan and the European Union each are expected to contract about 2.5% this year.
Click on the image at right to see a regional projection of GDP growth for 2021, compared with 2020 and 2019.
Expanding economies are expected to drive a 4.6% increase in global demand for energy in 2021, led by emerging markets and developing economies. Global demand for energy this year is expected to surpass 2019's demand. The IEA report detailed significant anticipated growth in demand for fossil fuels this year, with both coal and gas set to rise above their 2019 levels. Oil also is rebounding strongly, but is expected to stay below its 2019 peak, due to continued weak demand from the aviation sector.
Growing global GDP and demand for fossil fuels also will push up the world's emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), which are expected to rise about 2% from 2019 levels.
Click on the image at right to see the IEA's projection of global GDP growth, energy demand and CO2 emissions, compared with 2019 levels.
Assuming the pandemic can be defeated, coal will power this year's global economic recovery. Rising vaccination rates and soaring government stimulus spending are reasons for optimism, but the emergence of COVID-19 variants is a worrisome countervailing effect, as seen in the recent surge of infections in India.
The IEA report leans toward the optimistic when it comes to controlling the viruses. In projecting strong global GDP growth in 2021, it said coal use will grow 4.5% this year, surpassing its 2019 level and approaching its all-time peak from 2014.
Continued growth in demand for coal in China and other non-advanced economies is more than offsetting the decline in demand in advanced economies. Since 2000, coal demand in China has nearly quadrupled and demand among non-advanced nations had doubled, while demand from advanced economies has fallen about 50%.
Click on the image at right to see coal demand in China, non-advanced economies and advanced economies since 2000.
That is reason for worry inside IEA. "Global carbon emissions are set to jump by 1.5 billion metric tons this year--driven by the resurgence of coal use in the power sector," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement released with the report. "This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate. Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022."
While the Paris-based energy agency is concerned about global CO2 emissions, it welcomed gains in renewable generation--again, paced by China.
Renewable energy "bucked the trend" of other energy sources and grew about 3% worldwide in 2020 over 2019, the IEA report noted. That trend is expected to strengthen in 2021, when the energy agency foresees an 8% gain in renewable generation. China is expected to account for almost half of the global increase in electricity generation from renewables this year, followed by the U.S., the European Union and India. Around the world, wind and solar each are slated to see their electricity generation jump about 17% this year, to new records.
"Increases in electricity generation from all renewable sources should push the share of renewables in the electricity generation mix to an all-time high of 30% in 2021," the IEA report projected. "Combined with nuclear, low-carbon sources of generation well and truly exceed output from the world's coal plants in 2021."
Turning to natural gas, the IEA's global energy review said global gas demand "is expected to recover 3.2% in 2021, erasing the losses in 2020, and pushing demand 1.3% above 2019 levels. This recovery in gas demand has been driven mainly by fast-growing markets--primarily in Asia and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East--and subject to uncertainties regarding industrial rebound or fuel price competitiveness."
Regarding crude oil, the agency noted: "The improving economic environment will support a rebound in global oil demand of 5.4 million barrels per day (BBL/d), or 6% above 2020 levels. Despite the rebound, demand across 2021 is expected to remain 3.2% below 2019 levels. Covid-related restrictions on mobility will continue to suppress oil demand for transport in the first half of the year. ... Demand will rise progressively in the second half of 2021, as vaccination campaigns ramp up and travel returns."
Nonetheless, oil demand is not projected to reach pre-crisis levels (until 2022), the agency forecast. International aviation's oil use is the slowest area to rebound and is expected to be 20% below 2019 levels even in December 2021, it added.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
China's strict lockdown in early 2020 to contain and fight the COVID-19 pandemic paid economic dividends for the world's second-largest economy, as it was one of the few nations to experience positive GDP growth last year. Its economy began 2021 on a tear, surging during the first three months of 2021 compared to the first three months of 2020, observed the IEA report, Global Energy Review 2021: Assessing the Effects of Economic Recoveries on Global Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions in 2021, released April 20.
China and other developing economies are leading the recovery in global GDP growth and energy demand, according to the report, which projected China's GDP would grow about 11% this year when compared with 2019. The U.S. economy, by contrast, is expected to grow about 3% this year, compared with 2019's pre-pandemic growth. Overall, the IEA report projected global GDP would grow about 6% in 2021, the highest rate in decades and more than offsetting the 3.5% decline in 2020.
Click on the image at right to see a global GDP projection for 2021, compared with GDP growth since 1990.The Indian economy is projected to grow at about 3% this year, while GDP in Japan and the European Union each are expected to contract about 2.5% this year.
Click on the image at right to see a regional projection of GDP growth for 2021, compared with 2020 and 2019.Expanding economies are expected to drive a 4.6% increase in global demand for energy in 2021, led by emerging markets and developing economies. Global demand for energy this year is expected to surpass 2019's demand. The IEA report detailed significant anticipated growth in demand for fossil fuels this year, with both coal and gas set to rise above their 2019 levels. Oil also is rebounding strongly, but is expected to stay below its 2019 peak, due to continued weak demand from the aviation sector.
Growing global GDP and demand for fossil fuels also will push up the world's emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), which are expected to rise about 2% from 2019 levels.
Click on the image at right to see the IEA's projection of global GDP growth, energy demand and CO2 emissions, compared with 2019 levels.Assuming the pandemic can be defeated, coal will power this year's global economic recovery. Rising vaccination rates and soaring government stimulus spending are reasons for optimism, but the emergence of COVID-19 variants is a worrisome countervailing effect, as seen in the recent surge of infections in India.
The IEA report leans toward the optimistic when it comes to controlling the viruses. In projecting strong global GDP growth in 2021, it said coal use will grow 4.5% this year, surpassing its 2019 level and approaching its all-time peak from 2014.
Continued growth in demand for coal in China and other non-advanced economies is more than offsetting the decline in demand in advanced economies. Since 2000, coal demand in China has nearly quadrupled and demand among non-advanced nations had doubled, while demand from advanced economies has fallen about 50%.
Click on the image at right to see coal demand in China, non-advanced economies and advanced economies since 2000.That is reason for worry inside IEA. "Global carbon emissions are set to jump by 1.5 billion metric tons this year--driven by the resurgence of coal use in the power sector," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement released with the report. "This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate. Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022."
While the Paris-based energy agency is concerned about global CO2 emissions, it welcomed gains in renewable generation--again, paced by China.
Renewable energy "bucked the trend" of other energy sources and grew about 3% worldwide in 2020 over 2019, the IEA report noted. That trend is expected to strengthen in 2021, when the energy agency foresees an 8% gain in renewable generation. China is expected to account for almost half of the global increase in electricity generation from renewables this year, followed by the U.S., the European Union and India. Around the world, wind and solar each are slated to see their electricity generation jump about 17% this year, to new records.
"Increases in electricity generation from all renewable sources should push the share of renewables in the electricity generation mix to an all-time high of 30% in 2021," the IEA report projected. "Combined with nuclear, low-carbon sources of generation well and truly exceed output from the world's coal plants in 2021."
Turning to natural gas, the IEA's global energy review said global gas demand "is expected to recover 3.2% in 2021, erasing the losses in 2020, and pushing demand 1.3% above 2019 levels. This recovery in gas demand has been driven mainly by fast-growing markets--primarily in Asia and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East--and subject to uncertainties regarding industrial rebound or fuel price competitiveness."
Regarding crude oil, the agency noted: "The improving economic environment will support a rebound in global oil demand of 5.4 million barrels per day (BBL/d), or 6% above 2020 levels. Despite the rebound, demand across 2021 is expected to remain 3.2% below 2019 levels. Covid-related restrictions on mobility will continue to suppress oil demand for transport in the first half of the year. ... Demand will rise progressively in the second half of 2021, as vaccination campaigns ramp up and travel returns."
Nonetheless, oil demand is not projected to reach pre-crisis levels (until 2022), the agency forecast. International aviation's oil use is the slowest area to rebound and is expected to be 20% below 2019 levels even in December 2021, it added.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
