Released October 21, 2021 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--When it comes to climate change, talk is cheap but actions are hard. That's the conclusion of a new report from the United Nations (New York, New York), The Production Gap: Governments' Planned Fossil Fuel Production Remains Dangerously Out of Sync with Paris Agreement Limits, which finds that despite many net-zero carbon pledges by governments and energy companies, planned hydrocarbon production to 2030 is more than double the level that would be consistent with limiting global temperature gain to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The report, released in the run-up to the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, which starts at the end of this month, echoes the concerns of the recently released World Energy Outlook, from the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France). For more on the IEA report, see October 14, 2021, article - IEA Warns of Complacency, Return to Business as Usual in Latest Report.
The U.N. report, released October 20 by its environmental program, said the gap between pledged carbon dioxide (CO2) reductions and planned hydrocarbon production has not changed much since its 2019 "production gap" report.
"Many people suspected it would be very difficult to limit hydrocarbon production and use in order to limit CO2 emissions and temperature gain as set out in the Paris Agreement. This report, as does its predecessors, shows precisely how large the gap is between current and planned hydrocarbon use, on the one hand, and future CO2 emissions from those projects, on the other," observed Jesus Davis, Industrial Info's research specialist for North American Oil & Gas Production, Pipelines and Terminals.
Click on the image at right to see an overview of the gap between projected CO2 emissions from current and planned hydrocarbon projects, and CO2 levels that would limit temperature gain to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius.
"The devastating impacts of climate change are here for all to see," said Inger Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program, in a statement. "There is still time to limit long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, but this window of opportunity is rapidly closing."
In the upcoming Glasgow conference, formally known as the Congress of Parties 26 (COP 26), and beyond that event, "the world's governments must step up, take rapid and immediate steps to close the fossil-fuel production gap, and ensure a just and equitable transition," she said. "This is what climate ambition looks like."
The 2021 Production Gap Report provides profiles for 15 major hydrocarbon-producing countries, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the U.K. and the U.S. The country profiles show that most of these governments continue to provide significant policy support for fossil-fuel production.
Click on the image at right to see a breakdown of current and planned energy production from oil, gas and coal to 2040, plotted against production levels that would limit future temperature gain to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius.
"The research is clear: global coal, oil and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius," said Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report, in a statement. "However, governments continue to plan for and support levels of fossil-fuel production that are vastly in excess of what we can safely burn."
The report's main findings include:
Måns Nilsson, executive director of the Stockholm Environment Institute, a participant in the U.N. report, said: "A growing number of countries are announcing targets to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. While this is a positive development, bending the emissions curve downwards requires these pledges to be accompanied by concrete, near- and long-term actions. This includes immediate, steep and sustained reductions in fossil-fuel production and burning."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
The report, released in the run-up to the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, which starts at the end of this month, echoes the concerns of the recently released World Energy Outlook, from the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France). For more on the IEA report, see October 14, 2021, article - IEA Warns of Complacency, Return to Business as Usual in Latest Report.
The U.N. report, released October 20 by its environmental program, said the gap between pledged carbon dioxide (CO2) reductions and planned hydrocarbon production has not changed much since its 2019 "production gap" report.
"Many people suspected it would be very difficult to limit hydrocarbon production and use in order to limit CO2 emissions and temperature gain as set out in the Paris Agreement. This report, as does its predecessors, shows precisely how large the gap is between current and planned hydrocarbon use, on the one hand, and future CO2 emissions from those projects, on the other," observed Jesus Davis, Industrial Info's research specialist for North American Oil & Gas Production, Pipelines and Terminals.
Click on the image at right to see an overview of the gap between projected CO2 emissions from current and planned hydrocarbon projects, and CO2 levels that would limit temperature gain to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius."The devastating impacts of climate change are here for all to see," said Inger Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program, in a statement. "There is still time to limit long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, but this window of opportunity is rapidly closing."
In the upcoming Glasgow conference, formally known as the Congress of Parties 26 (COP 26), and beyond that event, "the world's governments must step up, take rapid and immediate steps to close the fossil-fuel production gap, and ensure a just and equitable transition," she said. "This is what climate ambition looks like."
The 2021 Production Gap Report provides profiles for 15 major hydrocarbon-producing countries, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the U.K. and the U.S. The country profiles show that most of these governments continue to provide significant policy support for fossil-fuel production.
Click on the image at right to see a breakdown of current and planned energy production from oil, gas and coal to 2040, plotted against production levels that would limit future temperature gain to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius."The research is clear: global coal, oil and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius," said Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report, in a statement. "However, governments continue to plan for and support levels of fossil-fuel production that are vastly in excess of what we can safely burn."
The report's main findings include:
- The world's governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and 45% more than consistent with 2 degrees Celsius. The size of the production gap has remained largely unchanged, compared with the group's prior assessments.
- Governments' production plans would lead to about 240% more coal, 57% more oil and 71% more gas in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
- Most major oil and gas producers plan to increase production to 2030 or beyond, and several major coal producers are planning on continuing or increasing production.
- Global natural gas production is projected to increase the most between 2020 and 2040, according to governments' plans. This continued, long-term global expansion in gas production is inconsistent with the Paris Agreement's temperature limits.
- Countries have directed more than $300 billion in new funds toward fossil-fuel activities since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic--more than they have toward clean energy.
Måns Nilsson, executive director of the Stockholm Environment Institute, a participant in the U.N. report, said: "A growing number of countries are announcing targets to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. While this is a positive development, bending the emissions curve downwards requires these pledges to be accompanied by concrete, near- and long-term actions. This includes immediate, steep and sustained reductions in fossil-fuel production and burning."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
