Released August 01, 2023 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Last week, as new high-temperature records were set from Phoenix, Arizona, to San Angelo, Texas; Palermo, Italy, to Catalonia, Spain; and Algiers, Algeria, to China's Xinjiang Uygur region, and climate scientists and meteorologists agreed that July was the hottest month in recorded history, more unwelcome news was provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France), which said global coal use continued to rise for the first half of the year.
July's heat wave may only be a glimpse of what's to come, as nations around the world continue to charge forward and build coal-fired electric generators, the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from which gather in the atmosphere and trap heat, like in a greenhouse.
Industrial Info is tracking about 1,510 coal-fired electric power projects around the world, worth approximately US$377 billion, that are scheduled to kick off over the five-year period between January 2023 and December 2027. Of those projects, 606 worth an estimated US$116 billion are considered "high" probability. In addition, 563 of those coal capital projects valued at US$71.86 billion have a "medium" probability.
The world regions where coal remains king: Asia, with 168 billion of "medium" and "high" probability projects valued at approximately US$168.5 billon; North America, where 159 projects are worth about US$14.8 billion; and Europe, where 370 projects are worth about US$4 billion of "medium" and "high" probability projects are scheduled to get underway before yearend 2027.
Most of the projects in North America were in-plant capital outlays for projects such as automation; carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS); debottlenecking; decommissioning and demolition (D&D); efficiency upgrades; environmental remediation; life extensions; upgrades; and uprates. No new-build coal-fired power plants are scheduled to begin construction in North America through the end of 2027.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic of the world regions with the most significant dollar-value of coal-power projects scheduled to begin construction before yearend 2027.
Digging deeper into the planned global coal power buildout, China, the U.S., India, Mongolia and Pakistan are the five nations with the greatest dollar-value of "high" and "medium" probability coal-fired power projects that are scheduled to begin construction by the end of 2027.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic of the five nations with the largest book value of coal power plants that are scheduled to begin construction by the end of 2027.
When burned to generate power, coal gives off about double the CO2 as natural gas on a per-megawatt basis. Continued high uses of coal makes it harder to slow or stop global warming.
Global coal demand reached a new record in 2022 at 8.3 billion tonnes, according to the IEA's Coal Market Update, released July 27. More than half of all coal consumed globally was used in China, the agency added. The number reflects coal used for power generation and industrial purposes.
Strong economic growth in China and India drove the developing world's use of coal last year.
Demand for the black rock rose an estimated 1.5% in the first half of 2023 over comparable year-earlier usage, the report said. Depending on second-half weather conditions and the economies of large coal-consuming countries, full-year 2023 global coal use is expected to rise fractionally, to about 8.338 billion tonnes, IEA said.
Click on the image at right to see historical and projected coal use trends for China, India, the U.S., the European Union (EU) and the rest of the world.
While the U.S. and the EU are expected to reduce coal use this year, those expected reductions will be more than offset by increased use in China and India. In 2024, the report projected, the story remains the same, though the numbers are smaller: reductions by the U.S. and EU are projected to be more than offset by gains in China and India.
Click on the image at right to see actual and projected coal use changes over the 2022-2024 period.
"Coal is the largest single source of carbon emissions from the energy sector, and in Europe and the U.S., the growth of clean energy has put coal use into structural decline," IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said in releasing the report last week. "But demand remains stubbornly high in Asia, even as many of those economies have significantly ramped up renewable energy sources. We need greater policy efforts and investments--backed by stronger international cooperation--to drive a massive surge in clean energy and energy efficiency to reduce coal demand in economies where energy needs are growing fast."
From 2021 to 2022, coal production gains were concentrated in China, India and Indonesia. This trend is expected to continue this year, the Coal Market Update said.
Click on the image at right to see where coal production gains are concentrated.
Turning to thermal coal exports, the IEA report said exports from Russia and Australia fell in 2022, but they were more than offset by exports from Indonesia, South Africa and the rest of the world. This year, Russian exports are expected to fall again for the full year, but a surge is predicted for Indonesia.
In a statement accompanying the report, the agency said: "After the extreme volatility and high prices of last year, coal prices fell in the first half of 2023 to the same levels as those seen in summer 2021, driven by ample supply and lower natural gas prices. Thermal coal returned to being priced below coking coal, and the big premium for Australian coal narrowed following the easing of disruptive La Niña weather that had hampered production. Russian coal has found new outlets after being barred in Europe, but often at considerable discounts."
"Cheaper coal has made imports more attractive for some price-sensitive buyers," the agency continued. "Chinese imports have almost doubled in the first half of this year, and global coal trade in 2023 is set to grow by more than 7%, outpacing overall demand growth, to approach the record levels seen in 2019. Seaborne coal trade in 2023 may well surpass the record of 1.3 billion tonnes set in 2019."
During July, U.S. envoys met with their Chinese counterparts to discuss energy and environmental matters. But U.S. officials left China empty-handed, unable to secure new commitments to slow new coal power plant development.
Officials from developed nations are circumspect in their public comments about coal use in the developing world, sensitive to charges of "energy colonialism," as much of the heavy manufacturing and steelmaking has shifted from the developed world to the developing world.
Later this year, the nations that signed the Paris Agreement to limit CO2 emissions will meet in Expo City, Dubai, to discuss progress in curbing emissions and the urgent steps that must be taken to preserve life on this planet.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
July's heat wave may only be a glimpse of what's to come, as nations around the world continue to charge forward and build coal-fired electric generators, the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from which gather in the atmosphere and trap heat, like in a greenhouse.
Industrial Info is tracking about 1,510 coal-fired electric power projects around the world, worth approximately US$377 billion, that are scheduled to kick off over the five-year period between January 2023 and December 2027. Of those projects, 606 worth an estimated US$116 billion are considered "high" probability. In addition, 563 of those coal capital projects valued at US$71.86 billion have a "medium" probability.
The world regions where coal remains king: Asia, with 168 billion of "medium" and "high" probability projects valued at approximately US$168.5 billon; North America, where 159 projects are worth about US$14.8 billion; and Europe, where 370 projects are worth about US$4 billion of "medium" and "high" probability projects are scheduled to get underway before yearend 2027.
Most of the projects in North America were in-plant capital outlays for projects such as automation; carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS); debottlenecking; decommissioning and demolition (D&D); efficiency upgrades; environmental remediation; life extensions; upgrades; and uprates. No new-build coal-fired power plants are scheduled to begin construction in North America through the end of 2027.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic of the world regions with the most significant dollar-value of coal-power projects scheduled to begin construction before yearend 2027.Digging deeper into the planned global coal power buildout, China, the U.S., India, Mongolia and Pakistan are the five nations with the greatest dollar-value of "high" and "medium" probability coal-fired power projects that are scheduled to begin construction by the end of 2027.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic of the five nations with the largest book value of coal power plants that are scheduled to begin construction by the end of 2027. When burned to generate power, coal gives off about double the CO2 as natural gas on a per-megawatt basis. Continued high uses of coal makes it harder to slow or stop global warming.
Global coal demand reached a new record in 2022 at 8.3 billion tonnes, according to the IEA's Coal Market Update, released July 27. More than half of all coal consumed globally was used in China, the agency added. The number reflects coal used for power generation and industrial purposes.
Strong economic growth in China and India drove the developing world's use of coal last year.
Demand for the black rock rose an estimated 1.5% in the first half of 2023 over comparable year-earlier usage, the report said. Depending on second-half weather conditions and the economies of large coal-consuming countries, full-year 2023 global coal use is expected to rise fractionally, to about 8.338 billion tonnes, IEA said.
Click on the image at right to see historical and projected coal use trends for China, India, the U.S., the European Union (EU) and the rest of the world.While the U.S. and the EU are expected to reduce coal use this year, those expected reductions will be more than offset by increased use in China and India. In 2024, the report projected, the story remains the same, though the numbers are smaller: reductions by the U.S. and EU are projected to be more than offset by gains in China and India.
Click on the image at right to see actual and projected coal use changes over the 2022-2024 period."Coal is the largest single source of carbon emissions from the energy sector, and in Europe and the U.S., the growth of clean energy has put coal use into structural decline," IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said in releasing the report last week. "But demand remains stubbornly high in Asia, even as many of those economies have significantly ramped up renewable energy sources. We need greater policy efforts and investments--backed by stronger international cooperation--to drive a massive surge in clean energy and energy efficiency to reduce coal demand in economies where energy needs are growing fast."
From 2021 to 2022, coal production gains were concentrated in China, India and Indonesia. This trend is expected to continue this year, the Coal Market Update said.
Click on the image at right to see where coal production gains are concentrated.Turning to thermal coal exports, the IEA report said exports from Russia and Australia fell in 2022, but they were more than offset by exports from Indonesia, South Africa and the rest of the world. This year, Russian exports are expected to fall again for the full year, but a surge is predicted for Indonesia.
In a statement accompanying the report, the agency said: "After the extreme volatility and high prices of last year, coal prices fell in the first half of 2023 to the same levels as those seen in summer 2021, driven by ample supply and lower natural gas prices. Thermal coal returned to being priced below coking coal, and the big premium for Australian coal narrowed following the easing of disruptive La Niña weather that had hampered production. Russian coal has found new outlets after being barred in Europe, but often at considerable discounts."
"Cheaper coal has made imports more attractive for some price-sensitive buyers," the agency continued. "Chinese imports have almost doubled in the first half of this year, and global coal trade in 2023 is set to grow by more than 7%, outpacing overall demand growth, to approach the record levels seen in 2019. Seaborne coal trade in 2023 may well surpass the record of 1.3 billion tonnes set in 2019."
During July, U.S. envoys met with their Chinese counterparts to discuss energy and environmental matters. But U.S. officials left China empty-handed, unable to secure new commitments to slow new coal power plant development.
Officials from developed nations are circumspect in their public comments about coal use in the developing world, sensitive to charges of "energy colonialism," as much of the heavy manufacturing and steelmaking has shifted from the developed world to the developing world.
Later this year, the nations that signed the Paris Agreement to limit CO2 emissions will meet in Expo City, Dubai, to discuss progress in curbing emissions and the urgent steps that must be taken to preserve life on this planet.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
