Released January 15, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Actions by China will largely determine whether the world cooks or decarbonizes. That, essentially, is the conclusion of Renewables 2023, a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France) that was released January 11.
The IEA's annual analysis of global renewable energy noted that at the recent U.N. global climate conference in Dubai, COP 28, nearly 200 national governments pledged to work together to triple the installed capacity of renewable energy. Their shared goal was to have at least 11,000 gigawatts (GW) of installed renewable electric generating capacity by 2030, part of an effort to slow or reverse worldwide temperature gain and avert the worst effects of global warming.
Having 11,000 GW of installed renewable electric generation capacity would align with the IEA's "Net-Zero by 2050" scenario. For a description of the IEA's three climate change scenarios, see June 26, 2023, article - New Report Urges Surge in Clean Energy Investments in Emerging Economies.
In Renewables 2023, the agency projected future renewable energy deployments according to two simple cases: "main" case and "accelerated." The report also looked at the factors supporting or limiting the growth of renewable energy, including policy trends influencing deployment, solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing capacity, the competitiveness of renewable technologies, energy storage, grid integration and how renewable energy affects hydrogen production.
If nations followed the "main" case, global renewable electric generation would be about 7,300 GW by 2030, the agency predicted. Under the "accelerated" case, global renewable capacity would hit about 11,000 GW by 2030.
"Governments can close the gap to reach over 11,000 GW by 2030 by overcoming current challenges and implementing existing policies more quickly," the report said, adding that these challenges fall into four main categories and differ by country. The challenges are:
Some might say that the "accelerated" pace sought by the IEA would propel renewables' deployment from a uniquely rapid pace to something resembling a risky breakneck pace.
The world added about 510 GW of new renewable energy capacity last year, the fastest growth rate in two decades and nearly 50% more than the roughly 349 GW it added in 2022, according to Renewables 2023. In the agency's "main" case, annual capacity additions are forecast to continue growing until they exceed 700 GW in 2028. In an "accelerated" case, involving even greater levels of government policy support, annual capacity additions could exceed 900 GW by 2030. Solar photovoltaic again dominates the annual capacity additions in both forward-looking cases.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic of historic, and two cases of projected, annual global renewable energy capacity additions.
Separate from the IEA report, Industrial Info is tracking more than 31,000 active renewable energy projects around the world that are scheduled to begin construction over the 2024-2028 period used in Renewables 2023. The total investment value (TIV) of those projects is about US$5.91 trillion.
Ten countries account for the overwhelming majority, about US$3.9 trillion, of that proposed US$5.91 trillion investment. Of the top 10, China (US$1.1 trillion), India (US$608 billion), the U.S. (US$598 billion) and Brazil (US$475 billion) are the countries with the greatest dollar value of renewable electric projects under development. With nearly US$1.7 trillion of renewable projects under development, China and India are expected to account for about 28% of the world's dollar value of renewable projects that are scheduled to begin construction between 2024 and 2028.
Click on the image at right to see a bar chart showing the countries with the largest dollar value of renewable electric generation projects under development.
In 2028, the IEA projected that renewables could account for about 42% of electric generation, though the agency did not say whether that would be reached in the "main" or the "accelerated" case.
Click on the image at right to see the IEA's projection of renewables' overall share of the electric fuel market around the world by 2028.
"China is in the driver's seat" when it comes to slowing or reversing global temperature gain, the report said, adding: "Over 2023-2028, China will deploy almost four times more renewable capacity than the European Union and five times more than the United States, which will remain the second- and third-largest growth markets."
Click on the image at right to see a graphic depicting renewable electric generation's projected growth rates for various countries.
Of course, China also is the world's most aggressive developer of coal-fired electric generation. For more on that, see December 18, 2023, article - IEA: New Record Level of Coal Use in 2023, but Slow Declines Seen over 2024-2026.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth US$17.8 Trillion (USD).
The IEA's annual analysis of global renewable energy noted that at the recent U.N. global climate conference in Dubai, COP 28, nearly 200 national governments pledged to work together to triple the installed capacity of renewable energy. Their shared goal was to have at least 11,000 gigawatts (GW) of installed renewable electric generating capacity by 2030, part of an effort to slow or reverse worldwide temperature gain and avert the worst effects of global warming.
Having 11,000 GW of installed renewable electric generation capacity would align with the IEA's "Net-Zero by 2050" scenario. For a description of the IEA's three climate change scenarios, see June 26, 2023, article - New Report Urges Surge in Clean Energy Investments in Emerging Economies.
In Renewables 2023, the agency projected future renewable energy deployments according to two simple cases: "main" case and "accelerated." The report also looked at the factors supporting or limiting the growth of renewable energy, including policy trends influencing deployment, solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing capacity, the competitiveness of renewable technologies, energy storage, grid integration and how renewable energy affects hydrogen production.
If nations followed the "main" case, global renewable electric generation would be about 7,300 GW by 2030, the agency predicted. Under the "accelerated" case, global renewable capacity would hit about 11,000 GW by 2030.
"Governments can close the gap to reach over 11,000 GW by 2030 by overcoming current challenges and implementing existing policies more quickly," the report said, adding that these challenges fall into four main categories and differ by country. The challenges are:
- Policy uncertainties and delayed policy responses to the new macroeconomic environment
- Insufficient investment in grid infrastructure preventing faster expansion of renewables
- Cumbersome administrative barriers and permitting procedures and social acceptance issues, and
- Insufficient financing in emerging and developing economies.
Some might say that the "accelerated" pace sought by the IEA would propel renewables' deployment from a uniquely rapid pace to something resembling a risky breakneck pace.
The world added about 510 GW of new renewable energy capacity last year, the fastest growth rate in two decades and nearly 50% more than the roughly 349 GW it added in 2022, according to Renewables 2023. In the agency's "main" case, annual capacity additions are forecast to continue growing until they exceed 700 GW in 2028. In an "accelerated" case, involving even greater levels of government policy support, annual capacity additions could exceed 900 GW by 2030. Solar photovoltaic again dominates the annual capacity additions in both forward-looking cases.
Separate from the IEA report, Industrial Info is tracking more than 31,000 active renewable energy projects around the world that are scheduled to begin construction over the 2024-2028 period used in Renewables 2023. The total investment value (TIV) of those projects is about US$5.91 trillion.
Ten countries account for the overwhelming majority, about US$3.9 trillion, of that proposed US$5.91 trillion investment. Of the top 10, China (US$1.1 trillion), India (US$608 billion), the U.S. (US$598 billion) and Brazil (US$475 billion) are the countries with the greatest dollar value of renewable electric projects under development. With nearly US$1.7 trillion of renewable projects under development, China and India are expected to account for about 28% of the world's dollar value of renewable projects that are scheduled to begin construction between 2024 and 2028.
In 2028, the IEA projected that renewables could account for about 42% of electric generation, though the agency did not say whether that would be reached in the "main" or the "accelerated" case.
"China is in the driver's seat" when it comes to slowing or reversing global temperature gain, the report said, adding: "Over 2023-2028, China will deploy almost four times more renewable capacity than the European Union and five times more than the United States, which will remain the second- and third-largest growth markets."
Of course, China also is the world's most aggressive developer of coal-fired electric generation. For more on that, see December 18, 2023, article - IEA: New Record Level of Coal Use in 2023, but Slow Declines Seen over 2024-2026.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth US$17.8 Trillion (USD).
