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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Strong electric demand growth, supported by a fossil fuel-friendly president, is reshaping the U.S. Power Generation business, causing some coal-fired units to defer their retirement dates and others to convert from coal to natural gas, an Industrial Info subject-matter expert said this week.
"The phase-out of coal will continue, it's not going away, but it is proceeding more slowly than under the Biden administration," Britt Burt, IIR's vice president of research for the Electric Power Industry, said in an interview. "Last year saw the fewest coal-fired power plant retirements since 2015. Going forward, over the next 10 years, we are tracking about 73 gigawatts (GW) of planned coal retirements." That amounts to about one-third of all coal-fired generation currently operating in the U.S.
News outlets have carried reports that the number of coal-fired power plants in the U.S. slated for retirement in 2027 has dropped 12%, though he cautioned that was not an IIR projection.
"We have started a process to reach out to any company owning a coal-fired power plant to double-check the retirement dates," added Burt, a seasoned observer of the Power industry.
The wave of deferred retirements and coal-to-gas conversions is being driven primarily by sharply rising electric demand growth, in many cases powered by power-hungry data centers, cryptocurrency mines and other high-tech facilities.
"This closure and conversion trend started before Trump became president," Burt observed. "President Trump is more friendly to fossil fuels than his predecessor.
In a January 23 virtual speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said, "Nothing can destroy coal. Not the weather, not a bomb -- nothing. And we have more coal than anybody."
"As soon as the president said that," Burt said with a chuckle, "my phone started ringing off the hook with people asking, 'Are we going to have new-build coal?' I say probably not, though you never say never. But practically speaking, it takes years to obtain a permit to build a new coal-fired power plant. I can't see one being issued before Trump leaves office in 2029."
On January 31, Georgia Power Company (Atlanta, Georgia), the largest electric utility unit of the Southern Company (NYSE:SO) (Atlanta, Georgia), said it planned to delay the retirement of the Bowen and Scherer coal-fired plants until at least 2035. In its prior integrated resource plan (IRP), the utility said it planned to retire those plants by 2028. The two plants have combined generating capacity of about 5,783 megawatts (MW).
Georgia Power's 167-page January 31 filing with the Georgia Public Service Commission (GPSC) (Atlanta) came three years after its most recent IRP filing with Georgia utility regulators. The January 31 filing also contained plans to add 268 MW of new capacity to an existing gas-fired plant near Savannah, add 1,100 MW of new renewables, build 1,000 miles of new transmission, add battery storage and invest in customer programs to reduce electricity demand.
In a statement, the utility said its IRP proposal includes "necessary investments in its generation fleet and transmission system to help ensure Georgia Power can continue to provide its customers with the reliability and resiliency they deserve and expect."
Georgia Power's service area has become home to numerous data centers and other high-tech manufacturers in recent years. Last year, Georgia utility regulators approved a mid-cycle update to the utility's 2023 IRP after a fresh load growth projection revealed projected load growth that was about 6,200 MW higher than a forecast made one year earlier. At the time, Georgia Power officials told regulators the utility had recently experienced "extraordinary" customer growth, largely driven by data centers. The GPSC approved the request. For more on that, see April 24, 2024, article - Georgia Power Gets OK for New Resources to Meet Demand.
On the other side of the country, on December 31, 2024, PacifiCorp (Portland, Oregon) filed its draft IRP that also sought to delay the retirement of some coal-fired generation.
PacifiCorp's draft 2025 IRP proposed:
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
"The phase-out of coal will continue, it's not going away, but it is proceeding more slowly than under the Biden administration," Britt Burt, IIR's vice president of research for the Electric Power Industry, said in an interview. "Last year saw the fewest coal-fired power plant retirements since 2015. Going forward, over the next 10 years, we are tracking about 73 gigawatts (GW) of planned coal retirements." That amounts to about one-third of all coal-fired generation currently operating in the U.S.
News outlets have carried reports that the number of coal-fired power plants in the U.S. slated for retirement in 2027 has dropped 12%, though he cautioned that was not an IIR projection.
"We have started a process to reach out to any company owning a coal-fired power plant to double-check the retirement dates," added Burt, a seasoned observer of the Power industry.
The wave of deferred retirements and coal-to-gas conversions is being driven primarily by sharply rising electric demand growth, in many cases powered by power-hungry data centers, cryptocurrency mines and other high-tech facilities.
"This closure and conversion trend started before Trump became president," Burt observed. "President Trump is more friendly to fossil fuels than his predecessor.
In a January 23 virtual speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said, "Nothing can destroy coal. Not the weather, not a bomb -- nothing. And we have more coal than anybody."
"As soon as the president said that," Burt said with a chuckle, "my phone started ringing off the hook with people asking, 'Are we going to have new-build coal?' I say probably not, though you never say never. But practically speaking, it takes years to obtain a permit to build a new coal-fired power plant. I can't see one being issued before Trump leaves office in 2029."
On January 31, Georgia Power Company (Atlanta, Georgia), the largest electric utility unit of the Southern Company (NYSE:SO) (Atlanta, Georgia), said it planned to delay the retirement of the Bowen and Scherer coal-fired plants until at least 2035. In its prior integrated resource plan (IRP), the utility said it planned to retire those plants by 2028. The two plants have combined generating capacity of about 5,783 megawatts (MW).
Georgia Power's 167-page January 31 filing with the Georgia Public Service Commission (GPSC) (Atlanta) came three years after its most recent IRP filing with Georgia utility regulators. The January 31 filing also contained plans to add 268 MW of new capacity to an existing gas-fired plant near Savannah, add 1,100 MW of new renewables, build 1,000 miles of new transmission, add battery storage and invest in customer programs to reduce electricity demand.
In a statement, the utility said its IRP proposal includes "necessary investments in its generation fleet and transmission system to help ensure Georgia Power can continue to provide its customers with the reliability and resiliency they deserve and expect."
Georgia Power's service area has become home to numerous data centers and other high-tech manufacturers in recent years. Last year, Georgia utility regulators approved a mid-cycle update to the utility's 2023 IRP after a fresh load growth projection revealed projected load growth that was about 6,200 MW higher than a forecast made one year earlier. At the time, Georgia Power officials told regulators the utility had recently experienced "extraordinary" customer growth, largely driven by data centers. The GPSC approved the request. For more on that, see April 24, 2024, article - Georgia Power Gets OK for New Resources to Meet Demand.
On the other side of the country, on December 31, 2024, PacifiCorp (Portland, Oregon) filed its draft IRP that also sought to delay the retirement of some coal-fired generation.
PacifiCorp's draft 2025 IRP proposed:
- Not retiring the 362-MW, coal-fired Wyodak Power Station in Wyoming, which had been slated to close in 2039 at the end of the plant's life. PacifiCorp owns 80% of that plant.
- Not retiring the coal-fired Jim Bridger Power Station units 3 and 4, which also had a planned retirement date of 2039. Instead, the utility will add carbon capture and sequestration on those units, which have combined generating capacity .of approximately 1,049 MW.
- Not retiring units at three other plants that burn coal: the Dave Johnston Power Station Unit 4; Hunter Power Station units 1, 2 and 3; and Huntington Canyon Power Station units 1 and 2. In its prior IRP, PacifiCorp had planned to retire those units in 2039, 2042 and 2036, respectively, when they reached the end of their useful lives. The combined generating capacity of coal-fired units at these three plants is roughly these 2,733 MW.
- Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK) (Charlotte, North Carolina) late last year moved back the planned retirement dates of its five-unit, 3,131-MW MW Gibson Generating Station in Indiana. The units had been scheduled to retire between 2029 and 2025. Now, all are scheduled to retire in 2038.
- Wisconsin utility Alliant Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:LNT) (Madison Wisconsin) pushed back the date by which it expects to stop burning coal to 2030 from 2026. Reliability concerns had caused it to delay the retirement of two coal-burning units at the 1,161-MW Columbia Energy Center to mid-2026 from a planned yearend-2024 date. In 2020, Alliant planned to retire the 409-MW coal-fired Edgewater Generating Station by yearend 2022, but in 2022 it pushed that date back to 2024. In 2024, it revealed plans to convert Edgewater to burn natural gas.
- The San Miguel Electric Cooperative (Christine, Texas) plans to convert two lignite-fired units at the San Miguel Power Station to a solar and battery plant using a $1.4 billion grant, awarded December 24, 2024, from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). It is not clear if that grant may be vulnerable to being withdrawn under President Trump, who has ordered the immediate cessation of disbursement of federal grants or loans for renewable energy. For more on the USDA grants, see September 19, 2024, article - Federal Clean Energy Support Starts Flowing to Electric Cooperatives.
- Merchant power provider Vistra Energy Corporation (NYSE:VST) (Irving, Texas) in December 2024 pushed back the retirement date of its 1,185-MW Baldwin Energy Complex in Illinois from 2025 to 2027.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
