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Released November 21, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)
Canadian leaders are working to diversify trade options amid declining relations with top trading partner, the United States. The U.S. economy gets about 60% of its crude oil from Canada as much of the nation's refinery system is tailored to run heavier crude oil grades such as what's found in Alberta, rather than the light, sweet oil found in U.S. shale basins.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney proposed reviving the Keystone XL oil pipeline during a recent visit with U.S. President Donald Trump. Keystone XL has been sanctioned and sidelined several times since it was first proposed in 2008. U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum could complicate construction should the Trump administration revive it.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Pipelines Project Database can view a list of detailed project reports on Keystone XL.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, meanwhile, is financing a proposal for a new crude oil pipeline that would terminate in British Columbia. Smith's pipeline would take several years for even a firm construction plan, and markets could be vastly different by the time either Keystone XL or the proposed Alberta artery made any meaningful development.
"I actually thought this proposal [to optimize Trans Mountain] would be more meaningful to Alberta and to the federal government, because it's demonstrably better in every possible way," he said.
An expansion project completed in May 2024 nearly tripled the capacity on the Trans Mountain system to a total of 890,000 barrels per day (BBL/d). The 36-inch, 720-mile pipeline is among the few Canadian arteries for exports outside of North America.
The pipeline terminates at the Westridge delivery point in Vancouver. The network carries mostly heavy crude oil from Alberta. Advancing trade-diversity efforts, the federal government said crude oil exports to countries other than the U.S. have more than tripled since the expansion project was completed.
The Globe and Mail, in a separate column, however, noted that Saskatchewan's government is behind the new network proposed from Alberta, which could carry as much as 1 million barrels of crude per day, according to The Canadian Press.
In an interview with The Canadian Press, Dennis McConaghy, a former official from TransCanada, now TC Energy Corporation (Calgary, Alberta), said it may be up to the Canadian crude oil producers themselves to increase output for whatever option makes it to the finish line.
"They will only do that if they think there's a fundamental ability to trust the federal government that the kind of energy and climate policy it faces is not going to be at odds with actually producing another million barrels," he said.
Canadian oil sands production set a record at around 3.6 million barrels per day (BBL/d) in December, federal data show.
By the Numbers
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
Summary
Working to advance non-U.S. trade, Canadian leaders are weighing several options to increase the amount of crude oil that makes it way out of North America. Some of those options could take years to get off the ground.Trans Mountain? Keystone XL? Something Else?
Provincial leaders in Canada are mulling their options for expanded crude oil exports, with the debate stirring over adding a new artery from Alberta or expanding the existing Trans Mountain pipeline to British Columbia.Canadian leaders are working to diversify trade options amid declining relations with top trading partner, the United States. The U.S. economy gets about 60% of its crude oil from Canada as much of the nation's refinery system is tailored to run heavier crude oil grades such as what's found in Alberta, rather than the light, sweet oil found in U.S. shale basins.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney proposed reviving the Keystone XL oil pipeline during a recent visit with U.S. President Donald Trump. Keystone XL has been sanctioned and sidelined several times since it was first proposed in 2008. U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum could complicate construction should the Trump administration revive it.
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Pipelines Project Database can view a list of detailed project reports on Keystone XL.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, meanwhile, is financing a proposal for a new crude oil pipeline that would terminate in British Columbia. Smith's pipeline would take several years for even a firm construction plan, and markets could be vastly different by the time either Keystone XL or the proposed Alberta artery made any meaningful development.
The Debate Stirs
Speaking to The Globe and Mail newspaper in Canada, British Columbia's Energy Minister Adrian Dix said it would make more sense to expand the capacity on the existing Trans Mountain pipeline."I actually thought this proposal [to optimize Trans Mountain] would be more meaningful to Alberta and to the federal government, because it's demonstrably better in every possible way," he said.
An expansion project completed in May 2024 nearly tripled the capacity on the Trans Mountain system to a total of 890,000 barrels per day (BBL/d). The 36-inch, 720-mile pipeline is among the few Canadian arteries for exports outside of North America.
The pipeline terminates at the Westridge delivery point in Vancouver. The network carries mostly heavy crude oil from Alberta. Advancing trade-diversity efforts, the federal government said crude oil exports to countries other than the U.S. have more than tripled since the expansion project was completed.
The Globe and Mail, in a separate column, however, noted that Saskatchewan's government is behind the new network proposed from Alberta, which could carry as much as 1 million barrels of crude per day, according to The Canadian Press.
No Matter What, It Needs to be Filled
Meanwhile, any option may require more dredging at Vancouver-area ports to accommodate the increase in crude oil deliveries. British Columbia authorities have already backed dredging near the Trans Mountain terminal in the province, though a tanker ban for parts of the coast could be problematic.In an interview with The Canadian Press, Dennis McConaghy, a former official from TransCanada, now TC Energy Corporation (Calgary, Alberta), said it may be up to the Canadian crude oil producers themselves to increase output for whatever option makes it to the finish line.
"They will only do that if they think there's a fundamental ability to trust the federal government that the kind of energy and climate policy it faces is not going to be at odds with actually producing another million barrels," he said.
Canadian oil sands production set a record at around 3.6 million barrels per day (BBL/d) in December, federal data show.
By the Numbers
- 3x as much crude oil leaving Canada since Trans Mountain was expanded
- 3.6 million BBL/d set a record for oil sands producers in December
- 1 million BBL/d in new pipeline backed by the provincial government in Alberta
- Canadian leaders are united on oil export diversity.
- Several options are on the table.
- More oil may be needed to fill whatever leaders decide.
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
