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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The electric system in several parts of North America is expected to be tested this summer, and power outages are expected if above-normal temperatures drive up air-conditioning use and lead to a greater-than-average number of unplanned outages at electric generators, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) (Atlanta, Georgia) said in a late-May report on the nation's summer electric reliability.
The report follows a year in which Texas suffered a devastating failure of its electric system in February and California's grid operator was forced to implement rolling blackouts last August, shutting off power to an estimated 800,000 southern Californians. And the report came as drought conditions of varying severity grips most of the West, draining the region's water reservoirs, lowering its hydroelectric generation and drying out forests and grasslands, creating more tinder for summer wildfires.
California utilities reportedly plan to return to the controversial public safety power shutoffs (PSPS) this summer, where electricity is preemptively shut off during red-flag conditions of high winds, low humidity and high temperatures in order to minimize the chance that failing electric equipment will spark wildfires.
High temperatures over the last week drove up electric usage and wholesale electric prices in certain parts of the country, but electric outages were small and scattered, driven mostly by thunderstorms.
The NERC assessment, released May 26, warned that parts of North America would be at "elevated" or "high" risk of energy shortfalls this summer if temperatures are hotter than normal. Specifically, the 2021 Summer Reliability Assessment said Texas, New England, the Midcontinent area and parts of the West faced an "elevated risk" of energy emergencies. It said California faced a "high risk" of energy emergencies, largely because of its high reliance on energy imports and solar generation. Solar generation tends to taper off in the late afternoons, when peak electric demand is rising.
The group did not weigh in on the risks of wildfires in the Golden State, which have contributed to a loss of power in recent summers. California's reservoirs are so low that the state has imposed water restrictions in most counties in northern and central California. The same hot and dry conditions apply in Arizona, where some reservoirs are at multi-decade lows and wildfires have erupted in recent days.
The West's water reservoirs normally are replenished by melting snowpack, but runoff this year is significantly under average because exceptionally dry soil soaked up the melting snow before it could reach the reservoirs.
Low water reservoir levels translate into low hydroelectric generation, which could create problems this summer for grid operators who rely on hydroelectric generation to keep the lights on. And while California has added about 3,000 megawatts (MW) of solar generation since last summer, solar output declines during peak electric demand hours, typically 3 pm to 8 pm. So the new solar generation may not do much to keep air conditioners humming this summer in the Golden State.
The NERC report identified other weather-dependent generation, such as wind power and solar generation in Texas, that could underperform this year if the winds don't blow as forecast or heavy cloud cover impedes solar generation. The group said the ongoing transition to renewable generation, while lowering pollution and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), and thus helping in the fight against climate change, nonetheless has made it more complicated to keep the lights on during extreme weather.
Earlier this year, a separate report from a separate reliability agency predicted the lights should stay on in Texas this summer, unless the Lone Star State is hit with a combination of higher-than-expected demand, below-average generation from renewable resources and above-average number of thermal generating units experiencing unplanned outages. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Austin, Texas) predicted that there was a 1% chance that all three of those events could happen this summer. For more on that, see May 17, 2021, article - ERCOT Projects Lights Will Stay on in Texas This Summer.
On Monday, ERCOT asked Texans to reduce electric use as much as possible through Friday, June 18, saying a significant number of forced generation outages, combined with potential record electric use for June, has resulted in tight grid conditions. Generator owners have reported 11,000 megawatts of generation was on forced outage for repairs, the council added.
Click on the image at right for ERCOT's power outlook for Tuesday.
"We will be conducting a thorough analysis with generation owners to determine why so many units are out of service," said ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson in a press release. "This is unusual for this early in the summer season."
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Offline Event Search can click here for a list of unplanned power outages in Texas that have kicked off since the start June.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Washington, D.C.) said that Texas is expected to see a hotter and drier than normal summer this year.
"As the grid transforms and weather-dependent resources become increasingly important to maintaining the real-time supply for electricity, the bulk power system becomes more vulnerable to abnormal weather," John Moura, NERC's director of reliability assessment and performance analysis, said in a statement accompanying the report. "Above-average seasonal temperatures, such as those predicted for this summer, can contribute to high peak demand and impact the availability of generation resources and imports from neighboring areas. This means that it is especially important for the electric industry to ensure the committed resource mix can support a variety of abnormal conditions."
As identified in the assessment, abnormal conditions that lead to elevated risk include prolonged above-average temperatures, low wind and solar scenarios and reduced ability to import power due to wildfire-related transmission outages.
Late-summer wildfires in the western U.S. and Canada pose risks to bulk power system reliability, the NERC report said. Government agencies have warned of the potential for above-normal wildfire risk beginning in July in parts of the western U.S. as well as central and western Canada. Operation of the bulk power system can be impacted in areas where wildfires are active as well as areas where there is heightened risk of wildfire ignition due to weather and ground conditions, it added.
The Los Angeles Times reported that the state's three largest investor-owned electric utilities - Pacific Gas & Electric (San Francisco, California), Southern California Edison (Rosemead, California) and San Diego Gas & Electric (San Diego, California) - "expect to de-energize hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses this year to prevent power lines from sparking wildfires during high-risk weather conditions, and state officials have also warned that heat waves could stretch electricity resources across the West."
Wildfires triggered by the failure of utility equipment, partly triggered by extended heat waves, caused numerous wildfires in 2017 and 2018. In response, the utilities and their regulator, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) (Sacramento, California), adopted a policy where utilities could preemptively turn off power in certain areas when red flag conditions are present. Separately from the PSPS, prolonged high temperatures last August caused the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) (Folsom, California), the state's grid operator, to implement rolling blackouts on two occasions.
Last week, Pacific Gas and Electric warned the state's residents to prepare for outages at the start of another threatening wildfire season. Roughly three-quarters of the state is in historic or near-historic drought.
The NERC assessment emphasized that grid operators in the West, Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region, Texas and New England have adequate generating resources to meet peak summer electric demand under normal conditions. But an abnormally long, hot summer, which could sharply increase electric demand, could lead to more frequent equipment failures at generators, forcing grid operators to implement rolling blackouts. The hot and dry conditions, already evident in the West as summer begins, increases the chance for wildfires, which could take down transmission lines.
The report noted that weather officials are expecting above normal temperatures for much of North America this summer. Peak electricity demand in most areas is strongly influenced by temperature, it added.
NERC President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Robb said the energy transition has created challenges to electric reliability because generating resources are rapidly becoming more decarbonized, more distributed and more digitized. "The events of this past year and the outlook for summer is a stark reminder that in our hurry to develop a cleaner resource base, reliability and energy adequacy have to be taken into consideration," he said on May 26.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
The report follows a year in which Texas suffered a devastating failure of its electric system in February and California's grid operator was forced to implement rolling blackouts last August, shutting off power to an estimated 800,000 southern Californians. And the report came as drought conditions of varying severity grips most of the West, draining the region's water reservoirs, lowering its hydroelectric generation and drying out forests and grasslands, creating more tinder for summer wildfires.
California utilities reportedly plan to return to the controversial public safety power shutoffs (PSPS) this summer, where electricity is preemptively shut off during red-flag conditions of high winds, low humidity and high temperatures in order to minimize the chance that failing electric equipment will spark wildfires.
High temperatures over the last week drove up electric usage and wholesale electric prices in certain parts of the country, but electric outages were small and scattered, driven mostly by thunderstorms.
The NERC assessment, released May 26, warned that parts of North America would be at "elevated" or "high" risk of energy shortfalls this summer if temperatures are hotter than normal. Specifically, the 2021 Summer Reliability Assessment said Texas, New England, the Midcontinent area and parts of the West faced an "elevated risk" of energy emergencies. It said California faced a "high risk" of energy emergencies, largely because of its high reliance on energy imports and solar generation. Solar generation tends to taper off in the late afternoons, when peak electric demand is rising.
The group did not weigh in on the risks of wildfires in the Golden State, which have contributed to a loss of power in recent summers. California's reservoirs are so low that the state has imposed water restrictions in most counties in northern and central California. The same hot and dry conditions apply in Arizona, where some reservoirs are at multi-decade lows and wildfires have erupted in recent days.
The West's water reservoirs normally are replenished by melting snowpack, but runoff this year is significantly under average because exceptionally dry soil soaked up the melting snow before it could reach the reservoirs.
Low water reservoir levels translate into low hydroelectric generation, which could create problems this summer for grid operators who rely on hydroelectric generation to keep the lights on. And while California has added about 3,000 megawatts (MW) of solar generation since last summer, solar output declines during peak electric demand hours, typically 3 pm to 8 pm. So the new solar generation may not do much to keep air conditioners humming this summer in the Golden State.
The NERC report identified other weather-dependent generation, such as wind power and solar generation in Texas, that could underperform this year if the winds don't blow as forecast or heavy cloud cover impedes solar generation. The group said the ongoing transition to renewable generation, while lowering pollution and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), and thus helping in the fight against climate change, nonetheless has made it more complicated to keep the lights on during extreme weather.
Earlier this year, a separate report from a separate reliability agency predicted the lights should stay on in Texas this summer, unless the Lone Star State is hit with a combination of higher-than-expected demand, below-average generation from renewable resources and above-average number of thermal generating units experiencing unplanned outages. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Austin, Texas) predicted that there was a 1% chance that all three of those events could happen this summer. For more on that, see May 17, 2021, article - ERCOT Projects Lights Will Stay on in Texas This Summer.
On Monday, ERCOT asked Texans to reduce electric use as much as possible through Friday, June 18, saying a significant number of forced generation outages, combined with potential record electric use for June, has resulted in tight grid conditions. Generator owners have reported 11,000 megawatts of generation was on forced outage for repairs, the council added.
"We will be conducting a thorough analysis with generation owners to determine why so many units are out of service," said ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson in a press release. "This is unusual for this early in the summer season."
Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Offline Event Search can click here for a list of unplanned power outages in Texas that have kicked off since the start June.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Washington, D.C.) said that Texas is expected to see a hotter and drier than normal summer this year.
"As the grid transforms and weather-dependent resources become increasingly important to maintaining the real-time supply for electricity, the bulk power system becomes more vulnerable to abnormal weather," John Moura, NERC's director of reliability assessment and performance analysis, said in a statement accompanying the report. "Above-average seasonal temperatures, such as those predicted for this summer, can contribute to high peak demand and impact the availability of generation resources and imports from neighboring areas. This means that it is especially important for the electric industry to ensure the committed resource mix can support a variety of abnormal conditions."
As identified in the assessment, abnormal conditions that lead to elevated risk include prolonged above-average temperatures, low wind and solar scenarios and reduced ability to import power due to wildfire-related transmission outages.
Late-summer wildfires in the western U.S. and Canada pose risks to bulk power system reliability, the NERC report said. Government agencies have warned of the potential for above-normal wildfire risk beginning in July in parts of the western U.S. as well as central and western Canada. Operation of the bulk power system can be impacted in areas where wildfires are active as well as areas where there is heightened risk of wildfire ignition due to weather and ground conditions, it added.
The Los Angeles Times reported that the state's three largest investor-owned electric utilities - Pacific Gas & Electric (San Francisco, California), Southern California Edison (Rosemead, California) and San Diego Gas & Electric (San Diego, California) - "expect to de-energize hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses this year to prevent power lines from sparking wildfires during high-risk weather conditions, and state officials have also warned that heat waves could stretch electricity resources across the West."
Wildfires triggered by the failure of utility equipment, partly triggered by extended heat waves, caused numerous wildfires in 2017 and 2018. In response, the utilities and their regulator, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) (Sacramento, California), adopted a policy where utilities could preemptively turn off power in certain areas when red flag conditions are present. Separately from the PSPS, prolonged high temperatures last August caused the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) (Folsom, California), the state's grid operator, to implement rolling blackouts on two occasions.
Last week, Pacific Gas and Electric warned the state's residents to prepare for outages at the start of another threatening wildfire season. Roughly three-quarters of the state is in historic or near-historic drought.
The NERC assessment emphasized that grid operators in the West, Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region, Texas and New England have adequate generating resources to meet peak summer electric demand under normal conditions. But an abnormally long, hot summer, which could sharply increase electric demand, could lead to more frequent equipment failures at generators, forcing grid operators to implement rolling blackouts. The hot and dry conditions, already evident in the West as summer begins, increases the chance for wildfires, which could take down transmission lines.
The report noted that weather officials are expecting above normal temperatures for much of North America this summer. Peak electricity demand in most areas is strongly influenced by temperature, it added.
NERC President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Robb said the energy transition has created challenges to electric reliability because generating resources are rapidly becoming more decarbonized, more distributed and more digitized. "The events of this past year and the outlook for summer is a stark reminder that in our hurry to develop a cleaner resource base, reliability and energy adequacy have to be taken into consideration," he said on May 26.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.
