Released July 08, 2019 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--In its 68th annual statistical review of world energy, released June 11, executives from BP Plc (NYSE:BP) (London, England) documented the dramatic growth of renewable energy around the world in 2018, but cautioned that wind and solar cannot decarbonize the Power sector all by themselves. To limit the growth of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (CO2), more coal-to-gas switching is needed, along with other measures.
This is the last in a series of articles that examine BP's 68th Annual Statistical Review of World Energy. Previous articles provided an overview of the report's findings and detailed examinations of the crude oil and petroleum refining industry and the natural gas industry, notably the liquefied natural gas segment, and the coal power industry.
Global power demand grew 3.7% last year, significantly faster than any year in recent history, BP officials said when they released their annual report, Energy in 2018: an unsustainable path. Renewable power generation rose 14.5% in 2018 and met roughly one-third of that increased demand for electricity last year. China continued to lead the way in renewables growth, accounting for 45% of the global growth in renewable power generation, more than all the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries combined. Around the world last year, natural gas generation grew 3.9% and coal rose 3%, BP executives said.
Click on the image at right to see a chart on power generation growth and the fuel sources for that generation.
On a combined basis, roughly 150,000 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar generation capacity came online last year, just slightly higher than in 2017. Solar generation increased by about 100,000 MW last year, while wind generation grew by about 50,000 MW. On an electric generation basis, wind continued to lead solar, but a downturn in wind generation last year shrank that fuel's lead over the amount of electricity produced by solar.
Click on the image at right to see how many thousands of megawatts of wind and solar generation began operating last year, and the cumulative annual amount of electricity generated by wind and solar.
In a webinar coincidentally held the day after BP released its annual statistical report, Britt Burt, Industrial Info's vice president of global research for the Power Industry, outlined the full pipeline of proposed renewable power generation construction around the world.
"We are tracking about $1.5 trillion of wind and solar projects scheduled to begin construction between 2019 and 2021," he said. "We don't expect all of those projects will begin construction, or come online, according to their scheduled dates. But a truly amazing amount of wind and solar generation is scheduled to be built between now and the end of 2021."
Burt noted that developers have scheduled about $994 million in windpower generation construction over the next few years. The lion's share of that spending is expected to take place in China ($290 billion), the U.S. ($143 billion), the U.K. ($62 billion) and Brazil ($37 billion). On the solar side, Industrial Info is tracking $492 billion in scheduled project starts around the world over the 2019-2021 period. The largest markets for solar include India ($78 billion), the U.S. ($64 billion), China ($61 billion) and South Africa ($34 billion).
Click on the images at right to see Industrial Info's global project spending estimates for wind power and solar power over the 2019-2021 period.
"Global wind generation installed capacity is expected to double by the late 2020s," Burt said in the June 12 webinar. "Solar installations could increase by 100,000 MW per year through 2023."
But BP executives were doubtful that the growth of renewable energy, by itself, could decarbonize the global power generation fleet enough to meet the strictures of the Paris Accord on climate change. "Despite the increasing adoption and penetration of renewable power, the fuel mix in the global power system remains depressingly flat, with the shares of both non-fossil fuels (36%) and coal (38%) in 2018 unchanged from their levels 20 years ago," said Spencer Dale, BP's group chief economist.
"Despite the rapid gains in renewable energy," Dale continued, "the pace of growth in (global) power demand has meant that overall carbon emissions from the power sector have increased substantially over the past three years."
Since renewables still make up a relatively small share of the power generation market relative to coal, small changes in the amount of coal burned to generate electricity would be easier to accomplish than the "truly massive" growth of renewable energy that would be necessary to limit the growth of heat-trapping CO2, Dale said.
The BP economist said it would be "almost impossible" to decarbonize the world's electric generation fleet through a sole reliance on growing renewable energy generation. "This highlights the importance of adopting a range of technologies and fuels, rather than just relying on renewables." Decarbonization "is likely to require many fuels and technologies for many years to come. This includes widespread coal-to-gas switching, significant adoption of carbon capture use and storage (CCUS), and increasing energy efficiency, especially in the developed world, where the vast majority of people already enjoy relatively high levels of electricity consumption."
"The underlying picture is one in which the actual pace of progress is falling well short of the accelerated transition envisaged by the Paris climate goals. Last year's developments sound yet another warning alarm that the world is on an unsustainable path," Dale concluded.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
This is the last in a series of articles that examine BP's 68th Annual Statistical Review of World Energy. Previous articles provided an overview of the report's findings and detailed examinations of the crude oil and petroleum refining industry and the natural gas industry, notably the liquefied natural gas segment, and the coal power industry.
Global power demand grew 3.7% last year, significantly faster than any year in recent history, BP officials said when they released their annual report, Energy in 2018: an unsustainable path. Renewable power generation rose 14.5% in 2018 and met roughly one-third of that increased demand for electricity last year. China continued to lead the way in renewables growth, accounting for 45% of the global growth in renewable power generation, more than all the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries combined. Around the world last year, natural gas generation grew 3.9% and coal rose 3%, BP executives said.
On a combined basis, roughly 150,000 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar generation capacity came online last year, just slightly higher than in 2017. Solar generation increased by about 100,000 MW last year, while wind generation grew by about 50,000 MW. On an electric generation basis, wind continued to lead solar, but a downturn in wind generation last year shrank that fuel's lead over the amount of electricity produced by solar.
In a webinar coincidentally held the day after BP released its annual statistical report, Britt Burt, Industrial Info's vice president of global research for the Power Industry, outlined the full pipeline of proposed renewable power generation construction around the world.
"We are tracking about $1.5 trillion of wind and solar projects scheduled to begin construction between 2019 and 2021," he said. "We don't expect all of those projects will begin construction, or come online, according to their scheduled dates. But a truly amazing amount of wind and solar generation is scheduled to be built between now and the end of 2021."
Burt noted that developers have scheduled about $994 million in windpower generation construction over the next few years. The lion's share of that spending is expected to take place in China ($290 billion), the U.S. ($143 billion), the U.K. ($62 billion) and Brazil ($37 billion). On the solar side, Industrial Info is tracking $492 billion in scheduled project starts around the world over the 2019-2021 period. The largest markets for solar include India ($78 billion), the U.S. ($64 billion), China ($61 billion) and South Africa ($34 billion).
"Global wind generation installed capacity is expected to double by the late 2020s," Burt said in the June 12 webinar. "Solar installations could increase by 100,000 MW per year through 2023."
But BP executives were doubtful that the growth of renewable energy, by itself, could decarbonize the global power generation fleet enough to meet the strictures of the Paris Accord on climate change. "Despite the increasing adoption and penetration of renewable power, the fuel mix in the global power system remains depressingly flat, with the shares of both non-fossil fuels (36%) and coal (38%) in 2018 unchanged from their levels 20 years ago," said Spencer Dale, BP's group chief economist.
"Despite the rapid gains in renewable energy," Dale continued, "the pace of growth in (global) power demand has meant that overall carbon emissions from the power sector have increased substantially over the past three years."
Since renewables still make up a relatively small share of the power generation market relative to coal, small changes in the amount of coal burned to generate electricity would be easier to accomplish than the "truly massive" growth of renewable energy that would be necessary to limit the growth of heat-trapping CO2, Dale said.
The BP economist said it would be "almost impossible" to decarbonize the world's electric generation fleet through a sole reliance on growing renewable energy generation. "This highlights the importance of adopting a range of technologies and fuels, rather than just relying on renewables." Decarbonization "is likely to require many fuels and technologies for many years to come. This includes widespread coal-to-gas switching, significant adoption of carbon capture use and storage (CCUS), and increasing energy efficiency, especially in the developed world, where the vast majority of people already enjoy relatively high levels of electricity consumption."
"The underlying picture is one in which the actual pace of progress is falling well short of the accelerated transition envisaged by the Paris climate goals. Last year's developments sound yet another warning alarm that the world is on an unsustainable path," Dale concluded.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
