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Released July 01, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Amir Richani for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The natural decline of oil fields and delays in developing new ones could drive Mexico to import approximately 500,000 barrels per day (BBL/d) by 2030 to meet refining demand.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted in a report that Mexico could go from a net oil exporter to an importer by 2030. The Central American nation is ranked as the country with the largest projected drop in oil production over the next five years, falling from more than 1.9 million BBL/d to 1.3 million BBL/d by 2030.
The Central American country has been facing production declines for over a decade, from the highs experienced in the mid-2000s when the Cantarell oil field helped the country reach an oil output close to 3 million BBL/d.
Similar to the natural decline of Cantarell, Mexico's current largest oil complex, the Ku-Maloob-Zaap fields, also has been facing declining outputs.
However, the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador was able to arrest such declines between 2021 and 2023 by developing several oil fields, such as Quesqui, which helped stabilize production.
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) (Mexico City, Mexico) is by far the nation's largest oil producer, and according to the IEA, more than half of its oil volumes currently comes from seven of its 240 oil fields.
At the same time, the company has focused its new strategy on onshore and shallow-water oil fields rather than deep-water assets.
Yet, the IEA points out that Pemex's "fiscal changes, large unpaid debts to its suppliers and upstream budget cuts have seen oil rigs slashed from 50 in October 2024 to fewer than 20 in less than six months -- although recently some payments reportedly have been made and five rigs have returned to work."
As a result of these developments, the Central American country could become a net importer, bringing in 500,000 BBL/d to feed its domestic refineries and meet local fuel demand, based on the IEA's forecast.
Mexico has expanded its downstream capacity from 1.64 million BBL/d to 2 million BBL/d with the construction of the 340,000-BBL/d Dos Bocas Olmeca refinery. However, six old refineries in Mexico have been operating near 50% of their capacity or below in recent years. Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted in a report that Mexico could go from a net oil exporter to an importer by 2030. The Central American nation is ranked as the country with the largest projected drop in oil production over the next five years, falling from more than 1.9 million BBL/d to 1.3 million BBL/d by 2030.
The Central American country has been facing production declines for over a decade, from the highs experienced in the mid-2000s when the Cantarell oil field helped the country reach an oil output close to 3 million BBL/d.
Similar to the natural decline of Cantarell, Mexico's current largest oil complex, the Ku-Maloob-Zaap fields, also has been facing declining outputs.
However, the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador was able to arrest such declines between 2021 and 2023 by developing several oil fields, such as Quesqui, which helped stabilize production.
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) (Mexico City, Mexico) is by far the nation's largest oil producer, and according to the IEA, more than half of its oil volumes currently comes from seven of its 240 oil fields.
At the same time, the company has focused its new strategy on onshore and shallow-water oil fields rather than deep-water assets.
Yet, the IEA points out that Pemex's "fiscal changes, large unpaid debts to its suppliers and upstream budget cuts have seen oil rigs slashed from 50 in October 2024 to fewer than 20 in less than six months -- although recently some payments reportedly have been made and five rigs have returned to work."
As a result of these developments, the Central American country could become a net importer, bringing in 500,000 BBL/d to feed its domestic refineries and meet local fuel demand, based on the IEA's forecast.
Mexico has expanded its downstream capacity from 1.64 million BBL/d to 2 million BBL/d with the construction of the 340,000-BBL/d Dos Bocas Olmeca refinery. However, six old refineries in Mexico have been operating near 50% of their capacity or below in recent years. Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
