Released October 11, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The world is on pace to add about 5,500 megawatts (MW) of renewable electric generation capacity over the 2024-2030 period, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France). If all of those projects come online, it would come close to meeting the goal set at last year's U.N. climate change summit of tripling the world's installed capacity of renewable generation by 2030.
If all 5,500 MW of renewable generation comes online over the next six years, that would be nearly three times the amount of renewable generation added over the prior six-year period, 2017-2023, the IEA said in its "Renewables 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2030" report, released October 9.
The IEA report is the latest in a series of updates provided by a wide range of interests leading up to this year's climate summit, scheduled to be held in Azerbaijan November 11-22.
The IEA refers to its 5,500-MW projection as its "Main" scenario in the renewables report. The agency acknowledged that, while that would be a dramatic gain, it still falls short of the tripling goal that the world's nations committed to at last year's climate summit, held in the United Arab Emirates, known as COP28. For more on COP28, see December 13, 2023, article - U.N. Climate Summit Endorsed Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, but Questions Remain.
Click on the image at right to see the IEA's calculation of global renewable electricity capacity as of 2023, its "Main" case, and IEA's "NZE 2030" case.
The world had slightly over 4,000 MW of renewable electric generation at the end of 2022, IEA estimated. In the IEA's "Main" scenario, adding 5,500 MW of new renewable generation would bring the global total to slightly under 10,000 MW by 2030. The renewables' goal established at last year's climate summit is nearly 12,000 MW of renewable generation capacity by 2030.
Click on the image at right to see the IEA's calculation of renewable electric generation's growth since 2022, and projections under various scenarios to 2030.
According to the report, China is expected to account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, based on current market trends and today's policy settings by governments. That would make China home to almost half of the world's total renewable power capacity by the end of this decade, up from a share of one-third in 2010. While China is adding the biggest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.
In terms of technologies, the IEA continued, solar photovoltaic (PV) is forecast to account for about 80% of the growth in global renewable capacity between now and 2030--the result of the construction of new large solar power plants as well as an increase in rooftop solar installations by companies and households. And despite ongoing challenges, the wind sector is also poised for a recovery, it added, with the rate of expansion doubling between 2024 and 2030, compared with the period between 2017 and 2023.
The IEA said wind and solar PV are the cheapest options to add new electricity generation in almost every country.
The report also projected a slight rise in global hydropower capacity by the end of this decade.
Click on the image at right to see the IEA's estimate of the market share of different renewable electric generation technologies since 2000, with a projection to 2030.
"Renewables 2024" also explores the steps nations and companies could take to further accelerate the deployment of renewables like solar and wind, which would fully meet COP28's goal of tripling installed renewable electric generation by 2030. The agency called that case "Accelerated."
"Renewables 2024" said that fully meeting the tripling target of COP28 "is entirely possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action. This includes outlining bold plans in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, due next year, and bolstering international cooperation on bringing down high financing costs in emerging and developing economies, which are restraining renewables' growth in high-potential regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia."
Further work is needed to more rapidly build out the world's transmission infrastructure, the IEA added. "The number of advanced-stage (renewable energy) projects waiting for grid connection remains high, but grid queue rule reforms are already delivering results," the IEA said. "Globally, countries have been addressing connection queue bottlenecks through grid reforms, introducing new measures to speed up connection timelines. These rules aim mainly to reduce the number of speculative projects or allow projects to exit connections queues without penalties. While these reforms are in their early stages, some of the impacts can already be seen."
In releasing the report, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said nations have discovered that adding renewable generation is a cost-effective way to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions while boosting energy security. "This report shows that the growth of renewables, especially solar, will transform electricity systems across the globe this decade. ... By 2030, we expect renewables to be meeting half of global electricity demand."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
If all 5,500 MW of renewable generation comes online over the next six years, that would be nearly three times the amount of renewable generation added over the prior six-year period, 2017-2023, the IEA said in its "Renewables 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2030" report, released October 9.
The IEA report is the latest in a series of updates provided by a wide range of interests leading up to this year's climate summit, scheduled to be held in Azerbaijan November 11-22.
The IEA refers to its 5,500-MW projection as its "Main" scenario in the renewables report. The agency acknowledged that, while that would be a dramatic gain, it still falls short of the tripling goal that the world's nations committed to at last year's climate summit, held in the United Arab Emirates, known as COP28. For more on COP28, see December 13, 2023, article - U.N. Climate Summit Endorsed Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, but Questions Remain.
The world had slightly over 4,000 MW of renewable electric generation at the end of 2022, IEA estimated. In the IEA's "Main" scenario, adding 5,500 MW of new renewable generation would bring the global total to slightly under 10,000 MW by 2030. The renewables' goal established at last year's climate summit is nearly 12,000 MW of renewable generation capacity by 2030.
According to the report, China is expected to account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, based on current market trends and today's policy settings by governments. That would make China home to almost half of the world's total renewable power capacity by the end of this decade, up from a share of one-third in 2010. While China is adding the biggest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.
In terms of technologies, the IEA continued, solar photovoltaic (PV) is forecast to account for about 80% of the growth in global renewable capacity between now and 2030--the result of the construction of new large solar power plants as well as an increase in rooftop solar installations by companies and households. And despite ongoing challenges, the wind sector is also poised for a recovery, it added, with the rate of expansion doubling between 2024 and 2030, compared with the period between 2017 and 2023.
The IEA said wind and solar PV are the cheapest options to add new electricity generation in almost every country.
The report also projected a slight rise in global hydropower capacity by the end of this decade.
"Renewables 2024" also explores the steps nations and companies could take to further accelerate the deployment of renewables like solar and wind, which would fully meet COP28's goal of tripling installed renewable electric generation by 2030. The agency called that case "Accelerated."
"Renewables 2024" said that fully meeting the tripling target of COP28 "is entirely possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action. This includes outlining bold plans in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, due next year, and bolstering international cooperation on bringing down high financing costs in emerging and developing economies, which are restraining renewables' growth in high-potential regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia."
Further work is needed to more rapidly build out the world's transmission infrastructure, the IEA added. "The number of advanced-stage (renewable energy) projects waiting for grid connection remains high, but grid queue rule reforms are already delivering results," the IEA said. "Globally, countries have been addressing connection queue bottlenecks through grid reforms, introducing new measures to speed up connection timelines. These rules aim mainly to reduce the number of speculative projects or allow projects to exit connections queues without penalties. While these reforms are in their early stages, some of the impacts can already be seen."
In releasing the report, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said nations have discovered that adding renewable generation is a cost-effective way to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions while boosting energy security. "This report shows that the growth of renewables, especially solar, will transform electricity systems across the globe this decade. ... By 2030, we expect renewables to be meeting half of global electricity demand."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
