IIR's April 19 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Russia to drive prices in short term, but China, inflation and increased production loom		Embargoes on Russian oil could tighten supplies and drive prices higher this week, but demand could be under pressure in the longer term as pandemic-related lockdowns remain in place in China and inflation undermines the buying power of consumers. For now, the market continues to focus on supply shortages real or imagined. A U.S. ban on Russian crude oil and refined petroleum takes effect in another week. The European Union is moving closer to its own ban on Russian oil imports. If the EU acts, it could add a hefty premium to the price of oil, Claudio Galimberti, a senior vice president of analysis at Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy. Oil, which started below $100 a barrel last week, jumped 9% to settle Friday at $106.95 in New York. Oil prices are up some 15% or so since Russian military forces invaded Ukraine in late February. But strategists at Swiss investment bank UBS last week cut their forecast for crude for June by $10 per barrel as several factors could weigh on prices. Inflation in the United States hit a 40-year-high of 8.5% in March, driven primarily by surging energy costs that could force American consumers and businesses to cut back on gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products. The global economy is also feeling the effects of war in Ukraine and the jump in commodity prices. OPEC recently cut its forecast for global growth to 3.9% from from 4.2%.	Houston Chronicle	Despite Policy Criticism, U.S. Set for Shale Oil Revival
Chinese Refiners Cut Output At An Alarming Rate		China's refiners are expected to lower their refinery runs at the biggest scale--by 900,000 barrels per day (BBL/d)--since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, as new COVID-related lockdowns weigh on fuel consumption, analysts and industry sources told Reuters on Thursday. China's demand, especially gasoline demand, has suffered in recent weeks as authorities continue with their "zero COVID" policy and lock down large cities and areas to contain a surge in infections. Most recently, China locked down 26 million residents in the financial hub Shanghai, which hit demand as people are confined to their homes. The return of severe lockdowns as China is battling its worst coronavirus outbreak in two years has prompted analysts to lower expectations of oil demand in the world's top oil importer and, by extension, global oil demand for this quarter and the full year 2022. Refiners in China are now set to reduce runs this month by nearly 1 million BBL/d, which would be equivalent to 6.3% of the average Chinese refinery production in recent months, according to Reuters' calculations. Moreover, independent refiners in the Shandong province have seen their run rates slip further on maintenance, China's commodity consultant JLC said on Wednesday.	Oil Price	China's Crude Oil Output Up 4.6% in First Two Months of 2022
Oil rises as Libya outages add to Russia supply fears		Oil rose on Monday in choppy trade, with Brent crude topping $113 a barrel, as outages in Libya deepened concern over tight global supply amid the Ukraine crisis, offsetting worries over slowing Chinese demand. Adding to supply pressures from sanctions on Russia, Libya's National Oil Corp on Monday warned "a painful wave of closures" had begun hitting its facilities and declared force majeure at Al-Sharara oilfield and other sites. "With global supplies now so tight, even the most minor disruption is likely to have an outsized impact on prices," said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA. ... Deeper supply losses are looming. Russian production declined by 7.5% in the first half of April from March, Interfax reported on Friday, and EU governments said last week the bloc's executive was drafting proposals to ban Russian crude. Those comments came before an escalation in the Ukraine war. Ukrainian authorities said missiles struck Lviv early on Monday and explosions rocked other cities as Russian forces kept up their bombardments after claiming near full control of the port of Mariupol.	Reuters	Analysis: New U.S. Barrels Can't Solve Old Supply Problems
IMF to lower global growth forecasts due to Ukraine war and COVID		The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global inflationary shock caused by Russia's war in Ukraine and the ongoing COVID pandemic will lead to slower economic growth this year and next. Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's managing director, said the Washington-based fund would downgrade its global growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 as a result of Vladimir Putin's invasion pushing up the price of food, energy and other commodities around the world this year. "We are facing a crisis on top of a crisis," she said in a speech before the IMF's spring meeting next week. Saying that the world faced a "clear and present danger" from high inflation for the first time in many years, she added: "We will be projecting a further downgrade in global growth for both 2022 and 2023." The IMF would cut its forecasts for 143 countries around the world, representing 86% of global GDP, she said.	The Guardian	Make Sure to RSVP for Industrial Info's Mid-Year North American Market Outlook Event
Russia's War in Ukraine Puts Global Energy Transition at Crossroad		Russia's invasion of Ukraine is upending the global transition away from fossil fuels in the fight against climate change. In some ways, the war is slowing the shift and giving old energy new life. In others, it's bolstering the argument that adding more electric vehicles to roads and installing additional wind turbines and solar panels can boost energy independence. In some places, both are happening at once. This much is clear: Without Russian energy, countries around the globe are being forced to make hard choices on how to fuel their economies, putting the energy transition at a crossroad. "The concern is that the knee-jerk reaction is to just focus on fossil fuels," said Ethan Zindler, an analyst at BloombergNEF, the energy data and analysis unit of Bloomberg. "But longer term, it bodes well for energy transition."	Bloomberg	Conference: Finally, a Great Time to be in the Natural Gas Business
Weekly Recap: 4/11-4/18		Weebles Wobble like an Easter Egg as these energy commodities market prepare for higher volatility amid yet more uncertainty. Last week, the chatter was about U.S., IEA SPR releases. This week, EU speaks to embargoes being placed on Russian cargoes? More supply offline in Libya. China continues to wrestle with a severe COVID outbreak, which is now prompting refiners to cut output at an alarming rate. IMF & OPEC are cutting their 2022 - possibly 2023 - global growth forecasts. And, so the market wobbling continues as one tries to make sense of what is unfolding in the world these days...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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