IIR's April 5 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Will oil reserve release ease prices for long?		Will the sell-off in crude that met Western efforts to tap oil reserves last the week? Or will it prove to be just a pause in rising prices as commodity markets adjust to disruptions in Russian oil and gas? West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, hit a high of $123.70 per barrel on March 8 on concerns that Western sanctions imposed on Russia for its military invasion of Ukraine would exacerbate lingering supply-side shortages. Those sanctions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned, could leave as much as 3 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil stranded. President Joe Biden changed the dynamic, albeit marginally, with his Thursday announcement that 1 million barrels of oil per day would be drawn from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a period of six months. "This is a wartime bridge to increase oil supply until production ramps up later this year," the president said. "And it is by far the largest release from our national reserve in our history." The release equates to 180 million barrels of oil and Biden's decision ultimately pulled oil below $100 during intraday trading on Friday. Members of the IEA, a Western alliance, followed suit later that day with their own release.	Houston Chronicle	Analysis: New U.S. Barrels Can't Solve Old Supply Problems
Oil climbs as Europe targets Russian oil imports		Oil prices rose on Tuesday as Europe announced plans to impose new sanctions on Russian oil imports to punish Moscow over alleged war crimes in Ukraine, raising concerns over tighter global supply. Brent crude was up $1.10, or 1%, to $108.63 a barrel at 1334 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up $1.12, or 1.1%, at $104.40. "With the European Union working on new sanctions that may target Russia's oil industry, crude prices could edge up in the near term," FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga said. The West is planning new sanctions against Russia over civilian killings in Ukraine, with President Joe Biden's national security adviser saying that new U.S. sanctions against Moscow would be announced this week. read more The European Commission on Tuesday proposed new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on buying Russian coal and on Russian ships entering EU ports. read more German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the ban on coal will be followed by oil and then gas.	Reuters	Big Oil to Face Grilling Over High Prices
OPEC+ refuses to heed consumers' call for more oil		OPEC and its allies stood back from the crisis engulfing oil markets, refusing to deviate from their schedule of gradual production increases as the U.S. considered an unprecedented release from emergency crude stockpiles. The cartel ratified the 432,000 barrel-a-day supply increase scheduled for May at an online meeting on Thursday, according to a statement. The decision was in line with expectations and very much peripheral to the main driver of prices on the market - President Joe Biden's plan to release about 1 million barrels a day from crude reserves for several months to ease the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Consumers are taking matters into their own hands because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are resisting being drawn into the political crisis caused by the military aggression of one of their leading members. The relationship with Moscow has been significant both economically and politically for the group as a whole, but especially for key members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The alliance has allowed the two Persian Gulf exporters to bolster their control over world crude markets while lessening their reliance on Washington.	Aljazeera	Oil-Producing Nations Seek Geopolitical Leverage
U.S. East Coast jet fuel costs soar on shortage fears		Jet fuel prices are soaring on the U.S. East Coast, home to some of the world's busiest airports, with buyers anticipating a worsening shortage as supply dwindles amid sanctions on Russian energy exports. Following Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, the United States and allies slapped heavy sanctions on Russia, leading to a tightening in worldwide energy markets. Russia is the world's largest exporter of crude and petroleum products, and the supply crunch is filtering through to global markets. The East Coast largely relies on shipments on the Texas-to-New Jersey Colonial Pipeline for refined products, as well as imports from Europe. However, Europe is dealing with its own supply strains, so distillate exports to the U.S. East Coast - also known as PADD 1 - are down nearly 60% on a year-on-year basis, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. East Coast jet fuel costs have reached record highs in recent days, with spot prices in New York Harbor exceeding $7.30 per gallon on Monday, more than double the seasonal average, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.	Reuters	Oil Giants Continue Investment in Renewable Diesel, Other Biofuels
Climate change: IPCC scientists report five ways to save the planet		The dangers of climate change have been well reported for years. But what's had less attention is how the world could effectively tackle the issue. Yesterday, UN scientists laid out a plan that they believe could help people avoid the worst impacts of rising temperatures. The report, by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), essentially calls for a revolution in how we produce energy and power our world. To avoid very dangerous warming, carbon emissions need to peak within three years, and fall rapidly after that. Even then, technology to pull CO2 from the air will still be needed to keep temperatures down. The 63 dense pages of this IPCC report are littered with qualifications and dense footnotes. But all the verbiage can't hide the scientists' central message. If the world wants to steer clear of dangerous warming, fossil fuels are toast.	BBC	BP Energy Outlook Explores Three Energy Transition Scenarios
Weekly Recap: 3/26-4/4		Supply or not to Supply... 'tis the question. OPEC(+) answered by holding its course - even though the compliance by its members has meant nearly ~1mmbl/d of supply to world markets is not being met; whereas, the U.S. announced an unprecedented release from its SPR amounting to ~ 1mmbl/d - enough to offset what is missing from OPEC(+) but the world could still remain short by upwards of ~3 mmbl/d+. Albeit to address such other U.S. allies might follow with announced releases from their respective SPRs in the name of energy security in these troubled markets. Troubled even more so by global outrage over Russia's alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Though the world also remains troubled by potential dangers of climate change with a recent IPCC report indicating fossil fuels are toast. Not really; however, the world will face choices of energy supply in the decades to come...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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