IIR's October 13 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
'Long and painful nightmare finally over,' Trump tells Israel's parliament		The ceasefire in Gaza took effect on Friday morning after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of Trump's 20-point peace plan. The next phases are still to be negotiated. During a whirlwind trip to the region, Trump will also attend a peace summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and other world leaders.	BBC	U.S. Rig Count, Sanctioned Sinopec Terminal, U.S. Power Consumption: Your Daily Energy News
Why Ukraine Is Betting on Strikes Deep Inside Russia		Refineries, factories, ports and railroad lines have already been blown up. Ukraine now has an arsenal capable of hitting much of western Russia, where much of the country's oil processing industry is concentrated. Kyiv has also announced a new weapon, called the Flamingo, that it says could reach Russia's industrial heartland in the Ural Mountains. With long-range strikes, Ukraine aims to batter the country's oil industry and bring the pain of the war home to Russians. The question is whether the strategy will be enough to sway the Kremlin to negotiate in earnest.	The New York Times	BP Lays Out Two Scenarios for Global Energy Markets to 2050
Oil recoups some losses after US-China trade tensions		Oil prices rose on Monday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session, as investors focused on potential talks between the presidents of the United States and China that could ease trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. "Last week's price meltdown was largely on the back of ceasefire in Gaza and return of U.S.-China trade volatility ahead of the November 10 trade truce deadline," DBS energy analyst Suvro Sarkar said. The selloff in markets now looked to be capped by Washington and Beijing's willingness to negotiate, he said, adding the near-term outlook hinged on the eventual outcome of the trade talks.	Reuters	Canada Mulls Keystone XL Revival
European markets move higher amid new U.S.-China trade spat; mining stocks up 2% Dow futures jump 400 points after Trump says China situation 'will all be fine'		European stocks were higher on Monday, with mining stocks rebounding as traders kept a close eye on a new trade dispute brewing between the U.S. and China. In France, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who was reappointed on Friday after resigning Oct. 6, unveiled his new government, with Roland Lescure named finance minister. The government will attempt to present fresh budget plans later Monday ahead of President Emmanuel Macron's deadline. U.S. stock futures surged on Monday, rebounding from Friday's sell-off after President Donald Trump said trade relations with China "will all be fine." Those moves come after Trump's Truth Social post on Sunday suggested to investors the president may not follow through on his threat to post a "massive increase of tariffs" on China. That comment on Friday brought the U.S. trade war with China back to the fore, and sent stocks tumbling in a rout that wiped out $2 trillion in market value.	CNBC	Europe Doubling Steel Import Tax to 50%, Halving Import Quotas Tariffs Drive Demand for U.S.-Made Recycled Aluminum Products
Natural Gas News: Market Braces for Sub-$3 Move as Inventory and Supply Pressure Build		Natural gas futures dropped sharply last week, settling at $3.106 after falling 6.56%, as traders reacted to bearish supply data, resilient production levels, and a weather outlook that continues to undercut early heating demand. With the weekly close near session lows, the market is now positioned to test deeper support, leaving bulls on the defensive heading into mid-October. Despite some recent cooler trends, the market has seen little sign of meaningful storage drawdowns. Unless temperatures shift materially colder, the current storage buffer is likely to continue weighing on price action.	FX Empire	Wind Energy Developer Orsted Shedding Jobs
Beijing blames US for raising trade tensions, defends rare earth curbs		China called U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on Chinese goods hypocritical on Sunday and defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products. Trump on Friday responded to Beijing's most recent export controls by imposing additional tariffs of 100% on China's U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on critical software by November 1. China's decision not to immediately respond in kind to Trump's opening salvo in this latest round of trade tensions could leave the door open for both countries to negotiate a de-escalation, analysts said.	Reuters	Data Centers: Is the Buildout Starting to Become a Bubble?
Why Energy Investors Are Doubling Down on Oil and Gas		Regulatory uncertainty under the Trump administration and shifting global policies are clouding investment decisions across both renewable and fossil fuel sectors. Grid instability and high costs in Europe are fueling doubts about the reliability of renewables-heavy systems without adequate backup from gas and nuclear. The global energy transition model is fracturing, as China reins in its overbuilt solar sector, the IEA calls for renewed oil and gas investment.	OilPrice	Analyst: Choose the 'Radical Middle' on Energy Transition
Week 10/06/25 - 10/13/25		Peace -- in the form of a ceasefire -- has arrived in the Middle East; however, this is the first phase of a much more lengthy process which will have to be negotiated and agreed upon. Now the world turns some of its attention to whether there could be a similar ceasefire in Eastern Europe, although this seems unlikely. The world also is looking to the Far East as the U.S. and China begin once again to ratchet up "actions and rhetoric" in regard to trade, with China once again imposing curbs on critical minerals and the U.S. responding by imposing more tariffs. One shall see if U.S.-China leaders will meet later this month to resolve their differences. Meanwhile, the commodity and economic markets are responding to this U.S.-China trade tension now that some geopolitical risk premium is out of the markets with the Middle East ceasefire. However, much remains unsettled, from a U.S. government shutdown, to Western Europe with France, U.K. and Germany working out their economic challenges as a recession looms; Eastern Europe as the Ukraine-Russia war rages on; and Asia with the unfolding U.S.-China trade spat as well as U.S.-India relations.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).