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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Decarbonizing an economy looks to be a lengthy and arduous process, particularly when it comes to transportation, where vehicles powered by internal combustion engines burning hydrocarbons must be replaced by vehicles powered by electricity. While automakers have gotten religion about electric transportation, there remains doubt about whether the lithium supply chain can be built out fast enough to meet the expected surge in demand for lithium-ion batteries that are being relied upon to power next-generation cars and trucks.
A recent conference in Denver, sponsored by the Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration (SME) (Englewood, Colorado), devoted several panels to exploring various aspects of the lithium supply chain, including: raw material mining; lithium compound refining; precursor manufacturing; component and cell manufacturing; and electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing.
One expert addressing the conference, held in Denver from February 27 to March 1, was Brian Jaskula, a beryllium, gallium and lithium commodities specialist with the U.S. Geological Survey (Reston, Virginia).
Jaskula said he was "distressed" about the supply chain because the investment dollars are flowing to the "downstream" part of the supply chain, namely battery manufacturing and EV manufacturing, but not enough was going to "upstream" segments such as mining and refining.
The USGS subject matter expect was one of several conference speakers who showed a projection from a 2022 study by McKinsey & Company (New York, New York) that showed global supply and demand for lithium was mostly in balance until about 2028, but after that, Jaskula said, there was a "big disconnect," in which demand outstripped supply, under either a baseline or aggressive deployment of EVs.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic from McKinsey & Co. on the global supply and demand for lithium through 2030.
"We need a game changer to increase lithium supply," Jaskula said on February 28. "In the U.S. and Canada, demand will rapidly outstrip supply throughout the 2030s."
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) authorized investment money for the lithium supply chain, but it imposed several conditions. Jaskula wasn't sure those funds alone would close the gap in the U.S., chiefly because it takes so long to permit and develop a lithium mine. Right now, there are only two operating lithium mines in the U.S., though over two dozen more lithium projects along the supply chain are under development, he said, adding, "The U.S. faces an enormous challenge to significantly secure the lithium-ion battery supply chain." He said it can take 10 to 16 years to get a lithium mine into production: "The U.S. permitting process is slow."
For more on the surging demand for lithium, see: March 22, 2023, article - Shell Sees Long-Term Geopolitical Problems for U.S. Energy; March 14, 2023, article - U.S. Working to Catch Up in Strategic Lithium Race; and October 21, 2022, article - Lithium Projects from Piedmont, Albemarle Win U.S. DOE Grants.
Although he was glum about the ability of the U.S. to meet the expected surge in demand for lithium, the USGS speaker said extracting and processing geothermal brine from the Salton Sea in the Southern California desert "has the potential to produce a significant amount of lithium in a relatively short period of time. But it now needs to demonstrate it can consistently produce battery-grade lithium chemicals on a commercial scale."
"The U.S. and Canada need many new lithium mines," Jaskula continued. Existing operations need to be greatly expanded. There is not enough to meet even the most conservative demand estimates. The scale of individual U.S./Canadian lithium mining operations may need to be increased by as much as a factor of 10 from what exists today."
He added: "Permitting for U.S. lithium mines and lithium refining operations needs to be reduced to half the current process time (of 10-16 years). Investment dollars are concentrated too heavily on the downstream part of the supply chain (e.g., Gigafactory construction) and not enough on getting lithium out of the ground. Investment dollars must also be focused on mining the raw materials that will produce battery-grade lithium chemicals on a consistent basis."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
A recent conference in Denver, sponsored by the Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration (SME) (Englewood, Colorado), devoted several panels to exploring various aspects of the lithium supply chain, including: raw material mining; lithium compound refining; precursor manufacturing; component and cell manufacturing; and electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing.
One expert addressing the conference, held in Denver from February 27 to March 1, was Brian Jaskula, a beryllium, gallium and lithium commodities specialist with the U.S. Geological Survey (Reston, Virginia).
Jaskula said he was "distressed" about the supply chain because the investment dollars are flowing to the "downstream" part of the supply chain, namely battery manufacturing and EV manufacturing, but not enough was going to "upstream" segments such as mining and refining.
The USGS subject matter expect was one of several conference speakers who showed a projection from a 2022 study by McKinsey & Company (New York, New York) that showed global supply and demand for lithium was mostly in balance until about 2028, but after that, Jaskula said, there was a "big disconnect," in which demand outstripped supply, under either a baseline or aggressive deployment of EVs.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic from McKinsey & Co. on the global supply and demand for lithium through 2030."We need a game changer to increase lithium supply," Jaskula said on February 28. "In the U.S. and Canada, demand will rapidly outstrip supply throughout the 2030s."
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) authorized investment money for the lithium supply chain, but it imposed several conditions. Jaskula wasn't sure those funds alone would close the gap in the U.S., chiefly because it takes so long to permit and develop a lithium mine. Right now, there are only two operating lithium mines in the U.S., though over two dozen more lithium projects along the supply chain are under development, he said, adding, "The U.S. faces an enormous challenge to significantly secure the lithium-ion battery supply chain." He said it can take 10 to 16 years to get a lithium mine into production: "The U.S. permitting process is slow."
For more on the surging demand for lithium, see: March 22, 2023, article - Shell Sees Long-Term Geopolitical Problems for U.S. Energy; March 14, 2023, article - U.S. Working to Catch Up in Strategic Lithium Race; and October 21, 2022, article - Lithium Projects from Piedmont, Albemarle Win U.S. DOE Grants.
Although he was glum about the ability of the U.S. to meet the expected surge in demand for lithium, the USGS speaker said extracting and processing geothermal brine from the Salton Sea in the Southern California desert "has the potential to produce a significant amount of lithium in a relatively short period of time. But it now needs to demonstrate it can consistently produce battery-grade lithium chemicals on a commercial scale."
"The U.S. and Canada need many new lithium mines," Jaskula continued. Existing operations need to be greatly expanded. There is not enough to meet even the most conservative demand estimates. The scale of individual U.S./Canadian lithium mining operations may need to be increased by as much as a factor of 10 from what exists today."
He added: "Permitting for U.S. lithium mines and lithium refining operations needs to be reduced to half the current process time (of 10-16 years). Investment dollars are concentrated too heavily on the downstream part of the supply chain (e.g., Gigafactory construction) and not enough on getting lithium out of the ground. Investment dollars must also be focused on mining the raw materials that will produce battery-grade lithium chemicals on a consistent basis."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
