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Released September 23, 2021 | SUGAR LAND
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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--With its ability to replace coal-fired power capacity and support renewable energy sources as they scale up and build out, natural gas will have a pivotal role during the energy transition to net-zero carbon emissions, according to Industrial Info's energy experts.

"Gas will certainly have more relevance in the energy transition," said Shaheen Chohan, vice president of Global Analytics.

Chohan was one of the presenters at Industrial Info's September 15 global oil and gas outlook webinar. For more on that, see September 16, 2021, article -- IIR Webinar: Oil & Gas Projects Outlook Gains Ground from Last Year, but How Have Things Changed?.

Both oil and gas are well into recovery mode this year, helping to reignite and bring many idled and deferred liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects back to the table, Chohan said.

But while the short-term outlook looks good for oil and gas project development, the long-term outlook is much more complex, he noted, adding that crude and gas market trends will follow different trajectories should the energy transition fully take hold.

"We know the energy transition will occur, but it is certainly a long journey, and I think the magnitude of that transition, (and) how close we can get to actually reaching a net-zero carbon energy system, is really still something of an unknown," Chohan continued.

Going forward, a number of energy-producing companies already have set net-zero emission targets, he said. Despite the economic challenges, many have announced plans to decarbonize their operations and value chains.

"Many are working to make their hydrocarbon core more resilient to this transition, whether that is exiting high-carbon intensity, low-yielding assets or redefining how and where they need to expand into those low-carbon businesses through investments in new technologies and innovation," Chohan said.

On the gas side of the supply chain, there is more certainty regarding longer-term demand, he continued, as gas will play a major role in supporting the energy transition through its "green credentials," both as a standalone energy carrier and in providing baseload power generation to support the renewable buildout, "and certainly until the battery-storage solutions really scale and become cost-competitive."

Shane Mullins, Industrial Info's vice president of Product Development, said during the webinar that the energy transition is playing a role in project spending priorities, with a strong focus on natural gas and LNG.

Global demand for LNG is expected to reach 560 million metric tons per year by 2030, Mullins said.

"To produce that we are going to need to have 650 million to 700 million tons per annum in nameplate capacity in place, and today there's only 430 million metric tons per annum operational," Mullins said. "We are still going to need the approval of 100 million tons per annum by 2025 to meet demand out to 2030, and yet again, another 50 million tons per annum by 2035, so this is really setting up for another record year for approvals."

Industrial Info is tracking more than 400 regasification terminal projects, with a total investment value of $132 billion, currently under development to import LNG across the globe. Forty-seven regasification projects now under construction will add more than 177 metric tons per year of import capacity, Mullins continued.

Attachment
Click on the image at right for charts showing global LNG liquefaction train project activity out to 2035, and LNG regasification project activity out to 2035.

Last year, only Sempra Energy's (NYSE:SRE) (San Diego, California) Costa Azul plant in Mexico reached a financial investment decision, "but this year we are witnessing the largest expansion on record move forward," Mullins said. He named several LNG liquefaction and export facilities that have been given the green light this year across the globe. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Production Project Database can click here for the Costa Azul project report. For related information, see July 28, 2021, article - Will Record-Breaking U.S. LNG Exports in First-Half 2021 Open Door for New Buildout?

On the other end of the LNG journey, Industrial Info is tracking a growing number of floating storage regasification units (FSRUs). Such projects "provide the lowest risk in development for new markets," Mullins said. "You no longer have to develop an asset that has to be there for 30 years or longer. So with the help of FSRUs, you see new markets opening up across Asia, Africa and the Middle East."

Industrial Info is tracking 97 FSRU projects across the globe, worth nearly $18 billion. Subscribers can click here for a list of detailed project reports.

Mature markets are seeing a growing number of LNG bunkering projects to provide LNG as fuel for ships, he continued. This trend has been spurred by recent International Maritime Organization rules greatly restricting the amount of sulfur in more commonplace bunker fuels. Industrial Info is tracking nearly 50 LNG bunkering projects, worth $3.39 billion. Subscribers can click here for a list of detailed project reports.

Click here to listen to webinar for a deeper dive into Gorrie and Mullins' discussion, which also included activity in regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn.

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