Released May 24, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin this year, with a range of 17 to 25 named storms. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cautioned this week that the forecasted strong hurricane season poses a risk for the U.S. oil and natural gas industry, particularly along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
NOAA said in a Thursday press release that its outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour [mph] or higher). Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including four to seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
In comparison, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had 20 named storms, but only one hurricane made landfall in the United States.
A "confluence of factors" is responsible for the forecast, NOAA said, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.
"As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics," NOAA said. "At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development."
The agency also said the hurricane season features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, "which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize cooling."
Finally, NOAA said: "Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic Basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane."
NOAA joined Colorado State University and AccuWeather in forecasting a stronger hurricane season this year.
On Wednesday, the EIA said the potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil and gas industry.
"Offshore crude oil in the United States is concentrated in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and could be significantly limited by inclement weather," the EIA said. "Offshore oil and natural gas floating production units must contend with some of the most severe hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms; they must have emergency procedures to evacuate nonessential personnel and temporarily halt production. In 2023, GOM crude oil production accounted for 14% of U.S. crude oil production," the EIA said. It continued, "Refining of crude oil is also affected by hurricanes in certain parts of the Gulf Coast. Refineries along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast account for almost half of U.S. refining capacity."
A hurricane also could reduce natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, which is mostly associated gas production, the EIA said. However, recent hurricanes have had a much smaller impact on total U.S. natural gas supply, because natural gas production in the Gulf has been declining for years. The Gulf of Mexico provided less than 2% of total U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023, down from 17% in 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita interrupted significant volumes of natural gas production.
The Texas Gulf Coast refining region has clusters of refinery capacity in Corpus Christi, Port Arthur, and the Houston-Galveston region, the EIA noted. The refining region has 5.5 million barrels per day (BBL/d) of refinery capacity and has the largest refineries in the United States. Refineries on the Louisiana Gulf Coast account for an additional 3.3 million BBL/d of capacity.
The two refining regions combined account for 48% of total U.S. refinery capacity.
"The path of a single hurricane or major storm is unlikely to affect more than a single cluster of refineries," the EIA continued. "However, because of the total volume of refining capacity in either region, more than 1.0 million BBL/d of capacity could be temporarily taken offline in anticipation of a major storm."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
NOAA said in a Thursday press release that its outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour [mph] or higher). Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including four to seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
In comparison, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had 20 named storms, but only one hurricane made landfall in the United States.
A "confluence of factors" is responsible for the forecast, NOAA said, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.
"As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics," NOAA said. "At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development."
The agency also said the hurricane season features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, "which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize cooling."
Finally, NOAA said: "Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic Basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane."
NOAA joined Colorado State University and AccuWeather in forecasting a stronger hurricane season this year.
On Wednesday, the EIA said the potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil and gas industry.
"Offshore crude oil in the United States is concentrated in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and could be significantly limited by inclement weather," the EIA said. "Offshore oil and natural gas floating production units must contend with some of the most severe hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms; they must have emergency procedures to evacuate nonessential personnel and temporarily halt production. In 2023, GOM crude oil production accounted for 14% of U.S. crude oil production," the EIA said. It continued, "Refining of crude oil is also affected by hurricanes in certain parts of the Gulf Coast. Refineries along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast account for almost half of U.S. refining capacity."
A hurricane also could reduce natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, which is mostly associated gas production, the EIA said. However, recent hurricanes have had a much smaller impact on total U.S. natural gas supply, because natural gas production in the Gulf has been declining for years. The Gulf of Mexico provided less than 2% of total U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023, down from 17% in 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita interrupted significant volumes of natural gas production.
The Texas Gulf Coast refining region has clusters of refinery capacity in Corpus Christi, Port Arthur, and the Houston-Galveston region, the EIA noted. The refining region has 5.5 million barrels per day (BBL/d) of refinery capacity and has the largest refineries in the United States. Refineries on the Louisiana Gulf Coast account for an additional 3.3 million BBL/d of capacity.
The two refining regions combined account for 48% of total U.S. refinery capacity.
"The path of a single hurricane or major storm is unlikely to affect more than a single cluster of refineries," the EIA continued. "However, because of the total volume of refining capacity in either region, more than 1.0 million BBL/d of capacity could be temporarily taken offline in anticipation of a major storm."
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
