Rafael Shifts, But Still Poses Threat to Gulf Energy

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--As Hurricane Rafael entered the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday after making landfall in Cuba, the U.S. government's offshore response team said more than 10% of the regional oil production was offline because of the storm.

Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane. The storm's path changed after landfall, moving westward instead of north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Still, offshore production centers are sure to be impacted by the storm. So far, it's Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) (San Ramon, California) that's been impacted the most, shutting in operations at six facilities that combine for around 577,000 barrels of oil per day (BBL/d) in peak design capacity.

By late Wednesday, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) activated the team that monitors offshore energy during storms.

"From operator reports, the BSEE estimates that approximately 17.4% of the current oil production and 7.04% of the current natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in," the agency said.

The Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 15% of the total U.S. oil production, but is only a marginal natural gas producer relative to the inland shale basins. The federal government expects the Gulf of Mexico will yield 1.77 million BBL/d in oil and 1.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in natural gas this year.

As of Wednesday, the BSEE said there were 12 rigs and platforms evacuated and one non-dynamically positioned rig that was relocated away from the storm.

Industrial Info early this week had already identified nearly two dozen platforms in the path of the storm. That number is expected to change given the new data on the storm's trajectory.

"With the recent changes in the forecasted path, the number of platforms potentially in the path of Rafael has dropped dramatically," said Jesus Davis, a vice president of research at IIR Energy.

In its Thursday morning forecast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Rafael was moving northwest at about 9 miles per hour.

"A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through Saturday," the forecast read. "On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days."

Florida should be spared by the storm, with only minor wind threats to the U.S. mainland based on Thursday's forecast cone. Sharon Weston-Broome, the mayor-president of Baton Rouge, on Wednesday announced that officials had pre-positioned sand and sandbags at nine locations across the parish in preparation for any flooding.

Rafael is expected to remain a hurricane through the weekend and dissolve to a tropical storm by Monday. As of the Thursday forecast, the NHC said it made downward adjustments to its intensity forecast, but advised against complacency.

"Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days," the NHC said Thursday. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Rafael is the 11th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic storm season, and a rare one for November. Markets were subdued on the oil production issues with West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, losing modest ground but holding in the $71-per-barrel range on Thursday.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).