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Released April 01, 2015 | JOHANNESBURG
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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The East African Power Pool (EAPP) has the potential to play a major role in driving energy investments in the region, but its heavy focus on large dams, such as the Gibe III project in Ethiopia, puts the region at high risk from climate change, according to a new report.
The report, "A Clean Energy Vision for East Africa: Planning for Sustainability, Reducing Climate Risks and Increasing Energy Access (2015)," recommends the EAPP shifts its priorities to include a much greater proportion of renewable energy sources like solar, geothermal and wind, and to take greater account of climate risks to large hydropower projects.
Currently, about 25% of electricity generated in EAPP countries comes from hydropower. The EAPP has identified hydropower projects that will almost double the EAPP's current installed capacity. An estimated 60% of the power comes from Ethiopian generation.
University of California Berkeley Professor Daniel Kammen, the lead author of the report, said: "We find that the clean non-hydro energy potential of the East African region is vast and developing it can lead to strong economic, social and environmentally beneficial development. Such a plan can meet even the rapidly growing energy needs of the region, make more significant progress in increasing energy access, and do so in a way that achieves environmental sustainability plan that contribute. The report develops a plan that contributes to a significantly more diverse and vibrant private sector."
The report said the region's solar resource alone is sufficient to provide the needed energy resources for each EAPP nation, and that available non-hydro renewable electricity sources are equivalent to roughly 80% of the identified hydropower projects in the EAPP master plan.
The study also notes the likelihood of cost containment and cost overruns in a hydropower-heavy EAPP: "Hydropower is prone to the greatest time overruns and the largest amount of cost overruns--almost $ 1 billion per project, according to new work from the global change unit at Oxford University."
Wind and solar projects are much less prone to cost overruns. The study recommends diversification of the energy matrix to help reduce cost overrun risks.
Looking at the prospects for rural electrification, the study recommends the completion of additional studies by the EAPP to capture all small-scale, decentralized potential electricity sources in the entire East African region, in order to avoid as many large-scale hydro projects as possible. Simple mini-grids can greatly build local energy access and can be the seeds of growing regional grids. The report notes that although 69 million Ethiopians are without electricity, the country plans to increase electricity exports to 2,000 megawatts (MW) by 2018.
The EAPP is supported by the U.S. government, the World Bank, African Development Bank and the region's governments.
The report was authored by Kammen, Veronica Jacome and Nkiruka Avila, for International Rivers and U.C. Berkeley's Renewable Energy & Appropriate Energy Lab.
For related information, see March 26, 2015, article - Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan Agree to Proceed with 6,000-Megawatt Renaissance Hydropower Dam,October 23, 2014 -- Ethiopia Handles Neighbors' Water Concerns, Launches Another 2,050 Megawatts of Hydropower, and April 25, 2014, article - Ethiopia's Gibe 111 Hydro Project Slips Schedule.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, five offices in North America and 10 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.
The report, "A Clean Energy Vision for East Africa: Planning for Sustainability, Reducing Climate Risks and Increasing Energy Access (2015)," recommends the EAPP shifts its priorities to include a much greater proportion of renewable energy sources like solar, geothermal and wind, and to take greater account of climate risks to large hydropower projects.
Currently, about 25% of electricity generated in EAPP countries comes from hydropower. The EAPP has identified hydropower projects that will almost double the EAPP's current installed capacity. An estimated 60% of the power comes from Ethiopian generation.
University of California Berkeley Professor Daniel Kammen, the lead author of the report, said: "We find that the clean non-hydro energy potential of the East African region is vast and developing it can lead to strong economic, social and environmentally beneficial development. Such a plan can meet even the rapidly growing energy needs of the region, make more significant progress in increasing energy access, and do so in a way that achieves environmental sustainability plan that contribute. The report develops a plan that contributes to a significantly more diverse and vibrant private sector."
The report said the region's solar resource alone is sufficient to provide the needed energy resources for each EAPP nation, and that available non-hydro renewable electricity sources are equivalent to roughly 80% of the identified hydropower projects in the EAPP master plan.
The study also notes the likelihood of cost containment and cost overruns in a hydropower-heavy EAPP: "Hydropower is prone to the greatest time overruns and the largest amount of cost overruns--almost $ 1 billion per project, according to new work from the global change unit at Oxford University."
Wind and solar projects are much less prone to cost overruns. The study recommends diversification of the energy matrix to help reduce cost overrun risks.
Looking at the prospects for rural electrification, the study recommends the completion of additional studies by the EAPP to capture all small-scale, decentralized potential electricity sources in the entire East African region, in order to avoid as many large-scale hydro projects as possible. Simple mini-grids can greatly build local energy access and can be the seeds of growing regional grids. The report notes that although 69 million Ethiopians are without electricity, the country plans to increase electricity exports to 2,000 megawatts (MW) by 2018.
The EAPP is supported by the U.S. government, the World Bank, African Development Bank and the region's governments.
The report was authored by Kammen, Veronica Jacome and Nkiruka Avila, for International Rivers and U.C. Berkeley's Renewable Energy & Appropriate Energy Lab.
For related information, see March 26, 2015, article - Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan Agree to Proceed with 6,000-Megawatt Renaissance Hydropower Dam,October 23, 2014 -- Ethiopia Handles Neighbors' Water Concerns, Launches Another 2,050 Megawatts of Hydropower, and April 25, 2014, article - Ethiopia's Gibe 111 Hydro Project Slips Schedule.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, five offices in North America and 10 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.
